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Let us say something happens to seriously delay the Manhatten Project. Enough so that Anerican Military forces are forced to commit to Operation Downfall.

How would the campaign have gone?

Given Japanese awareness of American plans to invade the South of Command they had reinforced the region which was noted by American Intelligence at a ratio of 1:1. Despite this MacArthur was of course willing to go along with the invasion, but there was opposition to the original plan where targets would have shifted elsewhere in Japan. Would the changes have happened or would they have gone through with it?

Could they win? Considering the advantages of number and surprise were not in American favor it is likely that they could have been thrust back into the sea. Though, I think that at least some parts of the civilian population would not have resisted given the high levels of war weariness at this stage of the war.

Still, it is likely the Invasion would have literally torn Japan apart. Would Post-War Japan look different? I think that in certain respects it would. I can certainly see the Japanese Imperials killing political prisoners that would have on OTL been key figures in the Post War Government.
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