No assassination in 1914

Simple PoD- Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary gets sick, cancels his trip to Sarajevo.

Any ideas on how to then create an international incident that allows WW1 to get on schedule within a year or two?
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
For later in 1914, try:

  • The Albanian crisis, when the Italian and Austrian naval units dispatched to the area pointed their guns at each other OTL over the various factions trying to run Albania.
  • The third Balkan War kicking off with the Greek fleet attempting to sink the Ottoman dreadnoughts before they reach Constantinople.

If you can wait a bit longer, we might be able to scheme up something; but the Russians were planning to attack the Ottoman Empire by the end of the decade to make an attempt at seizing Constantinople; so you'll likely have that if nothing else.
 
but the Russians were planning to attack the Ottoman Empire by the end of the decade to make an attempt at seizing Constantinople; so you'll likely have that if nothing else.

If they want to keep the British as their Allies, they won't be doing that. If they did however, the British dissasociate from them and tell the French they should to, if they value the British alliance.
 
If they want to keep the British as their Allies, they won't be doing that.

I guess they didn`t value the detente with Britain all that much then. According to Sean McMeeken if Archkuke Franz Ferdinand had not been assassinated, the next war trigger would have been the delivery of the dreadnaughts to the Ottoman Empire and Russia's landing of troops at the Bosporus to forestall that in August 1914.

If they did however, the British dissasociate from them and tell the French they should to, if they value the British alliance.

Then the French break their alliance with Britain. Russia was more important to France against Germany.
 
But would Germany care all that much about the Straights? I can imagine Germany welcoming the Russian commitment to the Middle East. AFAIK Balkan inception scenario was about the only thing that could have brought WWI as we know it to pass.
 
Germany could maybe iggnore a Russia concentrated on the Straits, if it would want to throw its work on the Prote away. Also the Question could be how Austria-Hungary reacts and is positioned internaly.

TBH I could see a realignment of necity from Britain. Maybe not full on CP, but certainly further from the Russians and depeanding on France, them too.

Imo to much depeands on the internal situations in the countries and who is in charge.


So maybe a Balcan/Russo-Ottoman War that grows as more of the Balcans is pulled into the fry. Probably with posturing of the main players Germany, Austria, France and Britain. And that is a "nice" prelude for an European War.
 
I guess they didn`t value the detente with Britain all that much then. According to Sean McMeeken if Archkuke Franz Ferdinand had not been assassinated, the next war trigger would have been the delivery of the dreadnaughts to the Ottoman Empire and Russia's landing of troops at the Bosporus to forestall that in August 1914.

Would the delivery of the dreadnoughts upset the balance of power in the black sea so much that the Russians would have done that? I'm not sure.
 

BooNZ

Banned
I guess they didn`t value the detente with Britain all that much then. According to Sean McMeeken if Archkuke Franz Ferdinand had not been assassinated, the next war trigger would have been the delivery of the dreadnaughts to the Ottoman Empire and Russia's landing of troops at the Bosporus to forestall that in August 1914.

It's hard to imagine even Nicky being that stupid...
 
Would the delivery of the dreadnoughts upset the balance of power in the black sea so much that the Russians would have done that? I'm not sure.

The Russians would be adding Dreadnoughts themselves, good cruisers and destroyers by 1916 in the Black Sea, so if the Russians can just wait it out for about a year they would have superiority again.

Armenia and Kurdistan were simmering at this time, if Russia wants to pick on Turkey, she could provoke something there, using some Turkish atrocity to get international support and grab another slice of Turkey in Armenia where the British wouldn't mind so much.

I agree in general Turkey is a good breeding ground for war. Germany and Britain would push back against Russian aggression. As usual peace if at the mercy of the great powers to back down when things get pushed to the brink.
 
Couldn't the Armenian Genocide be exploited in some way here that provokes war between Russians and Turks? Not sure how you'd suck Germany and Britain into that, so it might only be a regional thing.
 
Where their enough Armenians that had immigrated to the UK to make a fuss about the genocide ?Was there any Armenians immigrating to the UK ?
 
Then the French break their alliance with Britain. Russia was more important to France against Germany.

France was heavily invested in the Russian alliance, but it was also very unpopular in France at the time. Also, avoiding British enmity was the number one priority of France. I have difficulty seeing France choose Russia over Britain if they must pick between them.

Couldn't the Armenian Genocide be exploited in some way here that provokes war between Russians and Turks? Not sure how you'd suck Germany and Britain into that, so it might only be a regional thing.

Everything I've read has shown the Armenian genocide as a response to losing WW1 - for the last century, the Christian powers of Europe had been carving off territories with Christian majorities (or even large minorities) every time the Ottomans lost a war. As such, when WW1 started going badly, they decided (quite reasonably) that the Armenians would be used as the next excuse to rape the Empire so they started efforts to "control" the Armenians which morphed into a full-on effort to wipe them out.

That said, there were certainly smaller persecutions of Armenians that the Russians might use as an excuse.

fasquardon
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
France was heavily invested in the Russian alliance, but it was also very unpopular in France at the time. Also, avoiding British enmity was the number one priority of France. I have difficulty seeing France choose Russia over Britain if they must pick between them.

Breaking the Franco-Russian Alliance would actually make, of all people, Franz Ferdinand ecstatic. He harbored dreams of recreating the League of Three Emperors.

Whether or not he had a chance of success is another matter entirely; Kaiser Wilhelm would almost certainly end up being an obstacle to that attempt -- even if the Kaiser was persuaded to join in such a league, his approach to diplomacy and regular comments about the Slavs would've undoubtedly managed to offend the Russians right out of an alliance.

Still, the diplomatic chattering resulting from the three Emperors would make for entertaining reading at some point.
 
for previous discussions and ideas, see the following

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=349203&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=352421&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=344009&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=335787&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=328074&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=328610&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=325311&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=291714&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=285646&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=276496&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

a significant TL
A Knee In The Wrong Place: Franz Ferdinand Lives and Reigns

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=236437&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=235520&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=223556&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=223492&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

Another TL
Franz Ferdinand Had a Much Better Day: a TL

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=201178&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=186652&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=153848&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...hp?t=69194&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=145404&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...hp?t=35378&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=144840&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=141795&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=136663&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=139307&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand

https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...p?t=127670&highlight=archduke+franz+ferdinand


There are also discussions on him being assassinated by different people or in different places.
 
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