No Anglo-Russian Agreement: Conflict in Persia?

Thucydides

If the Anglo-Russian treaty of 1907 had not been signed, or if the Russians had come off the Russo-Japanese War more successful and felt more confident, would there be a war over Persia? I believe someone on the board once said that the Russians planned on either supporting Serbia or contesting Persia. What if they had chosen Persia?
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

An Anglo-Russian War is a possibility in this period, IMO, due to their competing spheres of influence in central Asia. It was resolved diplomatically IOTL, but if not, war is a possibility. Like a Fashoda War, it would destroy the chances of Britain in the Entente, but I'm not sure if it would drive them to side with the Germans, with whom they were competing in a Naval Race with. As for who would win, I really don't know. I think the British have better force projection, but Russia is closer. What I find interesting is if the Ottomans decide to join the fray to turn back what was started in 1877---since that would mean Russia is fighting two powers, France would be obligated to join the war...
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

Hmm, I think your best bet would be fabricating something, since it wouldn't be too difficult. Otherwise, there's the Panjdeh Incident in 1885, or perhaps the 1905 Iranian pseudo-revolution, which IOTL led to the Anglo-Russian entente, goes differently, pitting Russia and Britain against each other.
 

Thucydides

Interesting what you said about France, do you really think they would honor the alliance with Russia if they had to fight Britain?
 

The Hibernating Wolverine

Really Interesting idea; France would be still reeling from the war with Germany, as well as the Dreyfus Affair(assuming 1890's-1900's). Potentially, it could use the alliance with Russia as some kind of nationalist rebuilding and confidence movement, however I feel that it would elect to stay out of any Anglo-Russian conflict.

That being said, the Ottoman Empire I feel would almost have to get involved, because a British victory means the Ottomans are surrounded by the British(Egypt & Sudan, and India/Persia). However, a Russian victory puts Russia at the doorstep to the Middle East. If Russia were to win, we could see a drastically different World War one. I think that we would see Russia leave the Entente, but whether it would join the Germans and Ottomans(its most powerful Eastern European neighbor and its rival for Pan-Slav domination in Southern Europe), is a good question.
 

The Hibernating Wolverine

Germany could, but would they want to? By the 1890's they have a solid political base, Bismarck is still maneuvering the other nations of Europe against each other to benefit Germany. any kind of war would be a nuisance if not directly harmful to Germany's plans for dominating or controlling Europe, as their biggest rival is England in this time.

Also, I can't imagine the rest of Europe watching an Anglo-German alliance form against French and Russia(and maybe Austria-Hungary, looking to regain position and status in Europe).
 

The Hibernating Wolverine

It would depend on how they feel about either Russia or England controlling Persia, either directly or indirectly. Perhaps if an indirect rule is established they wouldn't-I also don't know how powerful the Ottomans were in the ME during this time-in Europe they were known is the "sick man of europe" so perhaps Persia is just the first step for either Russia or England in taking more of the ME?
 
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