No American Pacific Front in WW2 and its effects?

Hey Guys,

How could you get it so that there's no American Pacific Campaign? By this I simply mean to not have America and Japan go to war in World War 2? I have an idea, but thanks to butterflies I'm unsure if it would work: Basically have America not have the Philippines of Guam, and have them as independent nations. Then when America cuts the oil of to Japan (if it does at all in this TL) Japan can invade those nations without needing to get rid of the American Pacific Fleet? Probably ASB but meh, I'd like to hear a better idea if anyone's got one.

Then my next question is, what affect would this have with Japan in China and invading all of the European holdings in Asia and Oceania? Would they take them without the Americans getting involved? Would the Japanese be able to win a war against China now or not? Would they take all off the European holdings but fail in China? I'm not great on knowledge of the Pacific front in WW2 so I'll need some help as to knowing what's ASB and what's not :)

Lastly (and I only want a quick and small answer really), how would this affect American intervention into Europe against the Axis?

Thanks for reading, and I await your answers :)
 
Is America going to war with Germany then? If so then they'd go to war with Japan anyway.
Not guaranteed. If Hitler DoW on the U.S., Japan wasn't obliged to DoW on the U.S. (contrary to common belief).
Basically have America not have the Philippines of Guam, and have them as independent nations. Then when America cuts the oil of to Japan (if it does at all in this TL) Japan can invade those nations without needing to get rid of the American Pacific Fleet?
Actually, if the P.I. are independent, you wouldn't need an attack on them (necessarily) at all, & you'd eliminate any need for an attack on Pearl to defend them. The bigger issue is, does Japan attack Britain? Bigger still, do IJN SOs think the U.S. & Britain are so closely allied, attacking Britain is tantamount to attacking the U.S. regardless? If either (esp both) of those are "yes", you're back to OTL.
...what affect would this have with Japan in China and invading all of the European holdings in Asia and Oceania? Would they take them without the Americans getting involved?
There's really no connection. The question is, can Japan get oil, tin, & rubber without invading DEI? If yes, invasion of them, & hence of P.I., is needless. If no, see "inseperable" above. And the truth is, FDR & Winston didn't want war in the Pacific, so the total embargo was a mistake. (I've read it was "strengthened" by somebody at State, contrary to what FDR wanted.)
Would the Japanese be able to win a war against China now or not? Would they take all off the European holdings but fail in China?
No. Yes. Both as OTL.
...how would this affect American intervention into Europe against the Axis?
This is the hard one. Without a Japanese attack, you deny Hitler his lunacy of DoW on the U.S. How long do he & Congress wrestle with not declaring war in the Atlantic? It's been a year or so already, despite repeated incidents & at least one U.S. DD sunk. How much more would it take? There's really no telling.

Presuming Hitler is eventually provoked enough, & presuming Japan doesn't feel a need to attack Pearl Harbor (by whatever solution), U.S. intervention in Europe is liable to be much stronger, & the war much shorter. To take just one example: a single squadron of B-24s at Gander (Newfoundland) would've cut merchant ship losses way down. These were going to PTO, instead...
 
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