No American Civil War: What Happens to Mexico?

If the USA hadn't been caught up in its Civil War what would have happened to the French Intervention in Mexico? The USA was pro-Republican and they had the whole Monroe Doctrine. Could it have turned into a full out French-American war? Could the British of gotten caught up in it?
 
There wouldn't have been a French intervention in Mexico. The only reason they actually went ahead with the intervention was because the US was in a civil war, and was therefore distracted.
 
In my opinion nothing would have really happened, France got out of Mexico after figuring out it wasn't worth fighting in, and Britain was really the only thing that actually enforced the Monroe doctrine until well after the Civil War. Britain will pull out the rug, and America will pressure France, leading to an earlier withdrawal possibly, but no major changes as far as I can see.
 
Would it be possible to have the South secede while the army is in Mexico though? Would that improve their odds at all?

Not really. The American armies can just be pulled out of Mexico, and now the Confederacy has to worry about battle hardened troops crossing Texas, as well as green troops coming from the North.
 
Not really. The American armies can just be pulled out of Mexico, and now the Confederacy has to worry about battle hardened troops crossing Texas, as well as green troops coming from the North.

Except that - if we extrapolate from the first Mexican War - most of those troops will be from the South. Of course, most of their supplies will have come from the North, but...
 
I would consider the situation is ripe for the US to make a name for itself in international diplomacy. Juarez's government is refusing to make good on Mexico's overseas debts, so the US may advise it that it would be a good thing to negotiate a settlement with the Europeans with the US as negotiator.

On the other hand its possible that American businesses will clamor for Washington to act in league with the Europeans as a means to hold Mexico from probably defaulting on an American loans in the future. One can look to the foreign forces involved in the 1863-1864 Battles for Shimonoseki as a probable parallel. Also this wouldn't be too different from the later Roosevelt Collorary to the Monroe Doctrine.

Undoubtedly without a distracted US Napoleon III's French Adventure will never occur and Maximilian will live out his life elsewhere.
 
Without the ACW, or at least without it occurring in its OTL timeframe, it's true that Nappy III won't even bother dicking around with Mexico because not only is the US going to be less distracted, but also that the Monroe Doctrine will be more stringently enforced by the UK.

Which also hopefully leads to a better future for the Habsburg Monarchy, if Maximilian is around to assist his brother, or considering some butterflies, become a more liberal Emperor than his brother.
 
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