No American Civil War, effects on Canada

Not really, if 90% of the population were American, and 95% of the commerce, why on earth would Britain go to war?

Britain was pretty realistic about accepting facts on the ground, e.g. Oregon country.

Of course, the US isn't going to take it until there's a RR from Fargo to Winnipeg, and US settlers have settled most of the land, so ... say 1910 or so?

I mean, as it was, about 1/3 of Grandad's neighbours were people up from the States. (Far more on farms, and more in his vicinity than many, but still...)
Britain isn't stupid either. They'd play the colonial card, likely bribing the U.S. turn the other cheek when it comes to the Spanish colonies or something (which would be heavily in decline by this point). I'm not sure the U.S. would take too kindly to that either, even if in the long run Canada's west is worth a lot more.

Canada isn't any less likely to build a railroad in a no-American Civil War PoD then they were irl. You're going to have to butterfly away John A. and a fair bit of politcing for that.

In 1867 the territory is not under a country but under a trade corporation; it would be easy to bypass british claims in the region and, in fact, it's exactly why the colonies that became the province of British Columbia were founded: they were not just because suddenly the Columbia valley seemed attracting, it's because all of a sudden unsettled and just claimed territory the empire was eyeing had now 20.000 people living on its borders and considering expanding north of it: British colonization in north america (and the americas in general) in the 19th century was reactive, if the americans come before the British, there will be no fighting because "the hudson's bay company used to hunt there" is not a convincing enough title to the land.

So no, no fighting, especially not when the only country with effective land access to the region is the united states. And since the Michif aren't on friendly terms with the crown, expect a guerilla campaign on top.

I doubt Britain just gives up. Not because it isn't reasonable for that land to end up in the U.S. but just because we're talking about the height of the British empire here. If they make a claim they'll stake it, and if the U.S. doesn't budge they're going to end in a war they don't want to be in.

And iotl American settlers made up a huge portion of the settlers in the Canadian west. I know my great-grandparents are from Dakota. But for the most part, the Old West was largely unaffected by government until the 1920s/30s, by which time anyway most people won't care.
 
Top