No ACW: What happens when the 1861 French Intervention in Mexico occurs?

[World Mapping]

Good day, people of this website.

I have a TL in the works rn, and amongst its butterflies is the American Civil War being avoided, though I am trying to figure out the Mexican Intervention that happened the same year the ACW started.

What would happen once the Second French Intervention in Mexico occurs? Would there be a Franco-American War, and if so, how long? What about the Anglo-Spanish, who invaded initially along with the French, would they get involved in a Franco-US conflict?

Ty, yall!

 

[funnyhat]

The initial intervention (which was originally a joint French/British/Spanish venture) was done in part because the US was distracted with its own war. Without the war it probably doesn't happen or never progresses beyond the initial stage of collecting the debt.

 

[raharris1973]

I am also pretty confident that Napoleon would be more sensitive to his limits in this case. He won't be trying to sponsor a putative head of the Mexican government, Maximilian, here.

This interestingly leaves Louis Napoleon free to go deeper into two other overseas interventions France had going at the time-

a) France's war with Vietnam/Annam, fought in the provinces of Cochinchina. Perhaps instead of ending that campaign in 1863, with the mere conquest of Cochinchina, and establishment of protectorate over Cambodia, France does a more extensive campaign, taking all of what became 20th century South Vietnam, or reducing all of Vietnam to a protectorate, or possibly instead expanding at Siam's expense. It is not like China, recently defeated in the Arrow War, and still facing the Taiping Revolt and Nien Revolt and regional Muslim revolts, is in any shape to interfere.

b) France's intervention in Ottoman Lebanon on behalf of the Maronites. Which I believe had a counter-balancing British intervention on behalf of the Druze.

Another overseas area where France had precocious activity was Shogunal Japan. Shogun Yoshinobu was trying to modernize with foreign advice while the Proto-imperial restoration movement using Meiji as a figurehead was arguing for expelling the foreigners.

And Louis Napoleon and the French publique were quite vocal on the Polish uprising of 1863, though not exactly positioned well to do much.

As far as whether there's any tripartite debt-collecting intervention at all - maybe, maybe not - The powers may do operations limited to blockade, until the Mexicans agree to some sort of payment plan, perhaps based on customs revenue. The US wouldn't be likely to flip out and go to war on Mexico's behalf to bail Mexico out of being forced into something like that. If the powers do a landing/occupation of Veracruz and other Gulf ports they will probably proceed with some sense that they need to keep objectives and time spent on the ground limited, out of US sensitivities. In such circumstances, extracting a deal or promises would be the objective. Regime change would be out.