No 30 years war, HRE demographics and economy?

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Valdemar II

Banned
Note that Brandenburg started its rise by seizing the opportunity of a "zero hour",
and rebuild everything in a more modern (and more Dutch) way.
Disasters can turn out to be opportunities.

Yes Brandenburg was a interesting case, but even without the reforms following the 30YW it's going to be the second or third violin in the Empire. But it will look much more like OTL Bavaria than Prussia. It's not going to be OTL military behemoth.

In all likelyhood Denmark are going to replace Prussia, the reforms pushed through by Christian IV was moving Denmark that way, and without the loss in the Danish phrase of the 30YW, Denmark would be in a much better position to continue the reforms and avoid the disasterous weakening in 1649-1660 which meant a loss of Scania and the new dominance of the Swedish empire. Even as a erman state greater Holstein are going to be strong player even without the Danish possesions.
 
Brandenburg [...] will look much more like OTL Bavaria than Prussia.

I like this comparison. Perhaps you're right that Brandenburg would rise in any case; but after OTL's war it was more probable that it would sink ever deeper ...


To turn to the great strokes of history, there are some large conflicts and questions luring around at that time. They will seek, and most probably find an outlet. If there's no TYW, we'll have to explain what else will happen to them:

  • European Universalism. The King of France, the King of Sweden, and the Spanish and Austrian Habsburgs were all inspired by the dream of a hegemony over Europe. Well, they all caught a cold with that ... but it took a long and devastating war to understand that this is not achievable, for any of them.- Without it, they will pursue an very aggressive policy each, and clash over some other conflict.
  • The Low Countries. Can a country declare its independence from its hereditary monarchs? And concretely: What will happen to the Low Countries? Independence in one piece? Split as IOTL?
  • Constitutional order of the HRE. We talked about that in some detail. I only want to stress here that this is one of the major open questions. The answer is by no means clear, but some has to be found.
  • Religious Sovereignty. Can prince-bishops become a Protestant and keep their princely title? If so, is it hereditary? Can Protestants be members of an episcopal chapter? If so, can they elect a Protestant bishop?
    Can a prince force his subjects to adopt his religion? Or does he have to permit practice of other creeds? Or does he at least have to let those of another creed emigrate?
    Do these rules for Lutherans also apply to Calvinists? Can a prince be Calvinist? etc.
    The 16th century also had answers to all of these, but apparently they were not really unchallenged.

These are the main threads out of which this ATL - and this era IOTL are woven.
So Wiking, it's your turn to specify how you want to prevent the TYW. Then let's discuss how these main conflicts may develop.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I think the last two are the important ones, if the Germans can keep internal order, and avoid fighting each others, the Spains are going to give up Netherlands, the Swedes aren't goingto mess in Germany stay a second tier power trying to dominate the easten Baltic and the Habsburgs and Bourbons/Valois/Whatevers of France will keep duking it out with each others, but it won't leave Germany in ruins.

What we really need are a Austrian Habsburg compromise with the Protestants in Austria, Bohemia and Silesia, where they recognise the Austrian and Bohemian Estates right to be Lutherans and Hussites (maybe a situation like Brandenburg where both Calvinism and Lutheranism became official religion), this will defuse much of Protestant princes and imperial knights paranoia toward the Emperor. While the fact that the Austrian Habsburg stay Catholic will keep them from alienate their Spanish relatives. Best case are that one or two of either the Archbishop-Elector of Trier, Mainz or Cologne also turn permanent Lutheran, this will give the Austrian Habsburg a incentiment not to become too radical on the question on the religion of the ecclessial states.
 
It seems like Spain would just grow more powerful. I mean they have an open new world, and a generally pacifistic Germany. The Netherlands themselves are a problem but perhaps some kind of compromise can be reached. The 30YW was the major sapping of Spanish power, and without it the Spanish Empire will not be facing the same kind of expenses that it faced in OTL.
 
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Deleted member 1487

@Wiking:
I like it very much that you emphasized demographics.
Unfortunately, don't think it's possibly to make political conclusions:
Extreme demographic situations leave a country only with few choices,
a relatively normal situation as in this alt-Germany allows for almost any future.

I'm not intimately familiar with the period, but I'll shoot. Why not have several Habsburgs in a row not be particularly religious and tolerate Protestantism? I know that the issues were also political, but without the issue of religion to divide the Empire, perhaps the other issues can be worked out without violence.

Violence with the Turks picks up during the 17th century, so eventually that will shift focus, as will matters in Poland, the Netherlands, and eventually France. I think that the French issue will need to be settled at some point, though they, like OTL could try and undermine the Empire from within by exploiting internal divisions.
 
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