No 2nd or 3rd Partition of Poland

[Mixxer5]

Well, why would Poland be partitioned in an alt-Congress of Vienna? It may instead end up being pushed into a personal union with Russia (that was the terms Russia gained Congress Poland under).

fasquardon

If PLC switch sides and reforms during Napoleon reign (I assume that it'll do so earlier- Russia will need troops when coalition wars kick in. And because at this point PLC will be just slightly less populous than Russia and on similar level to Austria- it's perfect source of troops), it may end up like Bavaria otl. Or PLC might not switch sides and end like Prussia- divided and reformed after war as a winner.

Anyway- PLC with pre- 2nd partition border in 1815 won't end up as Russia's vassal. It'd make Russia too strong too fast. And Napoleonic wars can go either way too. Otl Napoleon lost 10000 horses just by getting to Vilnus (!) during war with Russia. If Poland switch sides, then he only has to reach Moscow from Dzwina river. It cuts distance (and supply lines!) at half, gives Napoleon (potentially) about 200-300k troops (up to 400k basing on population base- and because Russia is significantly less populous- it won't have otl 500k too!). So Poland might very well end Napoleonic wars with pre-partition border... Or more if Russia really screws up.

EDIT: Most importantly- don't look at Poland after Napoleonic Wars (even if PLC joins and lose!) as a potential target for partitions. ITTL PLC never was partitioned and it'd be precedence to do so! What's more- at this point, PLC most likely exists, and Prussia doesn't. Existing PLC changes world (or at the very least Europe and world indirectly), completely. Napoleon can decide to marry into PLC rather than Habsburgs (who were quite unreliable), and he won't have much trouble in turning Poland into real ally, rather than forced one. He can give PLC plenty of things (like independence, reforms, pre-partition borders) at the same time fulfilling his own goals (dismantling Prussia, keeping Russia in check).

I can't even stress how big impact PLC would have on any coalition war (and coalition members would want PLC to reform- they will need troops desperately as they did otl!). Pre 2nd partition Poland still has about 500k square km, about 20-25 millions of people (approximately in 1810. Otl PLC had 14 millions before 2nd partition, so I think we can safely assume 20 millions by 1810) and lies in perfect (and only) spot for invasion on Russia. With such size, if PLC switch sides in good moment, it can easily regain Prussian and Austrian parts of former territory, at the same time signing Prussia's death warrant. Because Napoleon doesn't need potential stab in the back which Prussia can provide (well- Poland too, of course...) and he did planned to dismantle them otl already (although Prussia might be less cocky without half of its territory and population...).

Anyway- if King and Czartoryski Family decide to cooperate closely and crush insurgents early, then we've Poland with 30k standing army by 1769, reformed judical system (very important thing. Otl person responsible for executing court order was... plaintiff. That's why anarchy grew to monstrous levels- every day noble fought noble over small things) and PLC having 10 millions inhabitants and covering 700k sq km.

If we stick to "no 2nd and 3rd partition". it's likely that- in cooperation with Russia (I might be wrong about it, but as far as I remember* , Great Sejm was called with Catherina's the Great consent!)- same reforms (and more- Great Sejm was supposed to clear ground for army reforms needed in case war with Turkey goes wrong) pass at this point. I don't think anything interesting will happen before Ist Coalition war and Campio Forno (Russia might give PLC green light to reform until then), but then we've 2nd coalition and things get spicy...

*Yup, I was right:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sejm

 

[HunterX]

If PLC switch sides and reforms during Napoleon reign (I assume that it'll do so earlier- Russia will need troops when coalition wars kick in. And because at this point PLC will be just slightly less populous than Russia and on similar level to Austria- it's perfect source of troops), it may end up like Bavaria otl. Or PLC might not switch sides and end like Prussia- divided and reformed after war as a winner.

Anyway- PLC with pre- 2nd partition border in 1815 won't end up as Russia's vassal. It'd make Russia too strong too fast. And Napoleonic wars can go either way too. Otl Napoleon lost 10000 horses just by getting to Vilnus (!) during war with Russia. If Poland switch sides, then he only has to reach Moscow from Dzwina river. It cuts distance (and supply lines!) at half, gives Napoleon (potentially) about 200-300k troops (up to 400k basing on population base- and because Russia is significantly less populous- it won't have otl 500k too!). So Poland might very well end Napoleonic wars with pre-partition border... Or more if Russia really screws up.

If Napoleon wins. Otherwise you're making arguments for why Russia is going to demand its partition. A Poland allied to a losing Napoleon is not going to keep its 1773 borders.

 

[Tizoc]

If Napoleon wins. Otherwise you're making arguments for why Russia is going to demand its partition. A Poland allied to a losing Napoleon is not going to keep its 1773 borders.

Assuming P-L remains allied to Napoleon. P-L ending in anti-Napoleon camp like Bavaria will have a much stronger position.

 

[Mixxer5]

Assuming P-L remains allied to Napoleon. P-L ending in anti-Napoleon camp like Bavaria will have a much stronger position.

Poland switching side in right moment becomes Austria tier player in coalition. Most likely PLC would have to return 3rd partition territories to Russia (because it'd surely get them back in the course of war) in exchange getting Kiev (because it's really sour point). If there's such need of course. If Napoleon gets as deep into Russia as otl, starting at Dzwina and having extra 300-400k troops shadowing Grande Armie (because PLC will be vitally interested in gutting Russia), then Tzar will have to fall back much deeper than otl, scorching even more of most populated parts of his country. Even Russia will fall when pressed hard enough (Crimean War, Ist WW). And who's gonna challenge Napoleon then? Spanish guerrilla together with GB?

EDIT: And even if Poland stands firm with Napoleon until bitter end (which will be very bitter for everyone by then, because Russians have to cross hell of territory to get to Leipzig...), then it's not screwed even half as much as otl. Austria won't be much interested in getting Galicia back- it'll prefer to keep Russia as far as possible. Prussia doesn't exist at this point, and reviving it would be like building Frankenstein's monster and Russia won't get whole Poland. Heck, most likely it won't get much more than 3rd partition back, because it'd strengthen them way too much. I think that- at most- PLC would lose most of its gains on Prussia (eastern Prussia and Silesia most likely- Silesia on behalf of Austria, Prussia as independent duchy... again).

 

[fasquardon]

The reason I could see Russia getting all of Poland after any French wars in such an ATL is because they got pretty much all of post 1st Partition Poland except Posen, which Prussia kept. Posen wasn't really considered a big deal pre 2nd Partition.

Interesting points people make about the opportunities to switch sides. Bavaria made out like a bandit by switching sides at the right time. As did Prussia. By comparison, Austria was ruined by picking poor times to go against Napoleon.

Poland isn't pre-destined to do poorly at playing the two sides.

fasquardon

 

[Mixxer5]

The reason I could see Russia getting all of Poland after any French wars in such an ATL is because they got pretty much all of post 1st Partition Poland except Posen, which Prussia kept. Posen wasn't really considered a big deal pre 2nd Partition.

Interesting points people make about the opportunities to switch sides. Bavaria made out like a bandit by switching sides at the right time. As did Prussia. By comparison, Austria was ruined by picking poor times to go against Napoleon.

Poland isn't pre-destined to do poorly at playing the two sides.

fasquardon

PLC was dismantled so easily because it couldn't defend itself, nor represent properly. Same thing could happen to any European power if it'd be seen as a power vacuum (of course unless it lied in geographically bad position. Spain had its own "time of troubles" in the course of XIX century and it wasn't partitioned).

So: PLC won't be liquidated after Napoleonic Wars, because no state was completely obliterated as a result. PLC with its pre-partition borders (I assume that it'd be bigger if joined with Napoleon) will be 1st league power, on par with Russia, GB and France- liquidating it would cause two things- incredibly upset balance of power (in the world, not just region!), as well as cause huge guerrilla. Tirol was almost too much for Bavaria to hold, now imagine much bigger and better populated territory, swallowed at once- total anarchy would follow.

What's more- Russia got most of PLC after Napoleonic Wars, because Prussia gave up on these territories (they were too much for them anyway- half of Prussian population were Poles thanks to partitions) in exchange for lands further west. ITTL Prussia most likely doesn't even exist during peace talks, its lands divided between Napoleon's vassal (and PLC most likely), so giving all PLC to russia would increase Russian territory for over 700 sq km and population by over 20 millions (with Russia having about 30). To even the odds, France would have to keep its Napoleonic gains and Austria unite Germany without losing Hungary. Ottomans would have to be buffed too...

 

[sn290466]

I like the implications of Kosciusko's rebellion fending off Suvorov, and up holding the may 3rd constitution. But thats cause im a sucker for romanticism.
But really it had it all, serfs, burghers, a full jewish unit. Not just nobles.

 

[Mixxer5]

Uniwersał Połaniecki was worst piece of legislation since liberum veto. It didn't specify how much land would peasants get, forced them to pay for it at the same time freeing noble from his part of bargain. Even if PLC would beat Russia and Prussia (Austria might back down in such case), it'd finish PLC off.

 

[fasquardon]

If Napoleon wins. Otherwise you're making arguments for why Russia is going to demand its partition. A Poland allied to a losing Napoleon is not going to keep its 1773 borders.

Actually, if Poland sided with France and France still lost, so long as the feeling in Europe was the same as OTL by the time they do an alt-Congress of Vienna, Poland may well keep the same borders.

The Congress of Vienna tried as much as possible to turn the clock back to pre-revolutionary Europe. Also, Britain, France and Austria were very much in favour of limiting Russian power. So as in France, a treaty may simply mandate who got the Polish throne and limit what sort of constitution Poland would have (likely to be the sort that gives Poland to Russia as a puppet/personal union).

I like the implications of Kosciusko's rebellion fending off Suvorov, and up holding the may 3rd constitution. But thats cause im a sucker for romanticism.
But really it had it all, serfs, burghers, a full jewish unit. Not just nobles.

If I could figure out a way to make Kosciusko's rebellion succeed, I would so write a TL about it. Kosciusko's vision for Poland was pretty cool, IMO.

fasquardon

 

[Mixxer5]

Well, Kosciuszko could actually beat elements of Russian army, till they have no other option than to sue for peace... But then Prussians would most likely enter the war and game over. It would work if Kosciuszko would be much better commander than otl (and with more artillery...) and Prussians would be severly beaten during war with France (so they are in no position to invade PLC- or what's left of it). But even then, I think that his ideas wouldn't work- as I said, Uniwersał Połaniecki would cripple peasants even further (because nobles would use it against them).