No 22nd Amendment

What if the 22nd amendment, which limits all presidents to two-terms in office had never existed. This would let all presidents to come after Harry s.Truman run for a third term. But would any have run? Would any have been able to win? I think Eisenhower was popular enough to pull it off, but what about the others?
 
Ike: could have won a third term; wouldn't have run given health issues.
Kennedy: insufficient data.
Johnson: given the course of events of the 60s, had he run in '68 he would have been voted out, IMO.
Nixon: assuming no Watergate, doubtful he would have tried since his popularity was indifferent at best.
Ford: insufficient data.
Carter: presumes he would have beaten Reagan in '80, which is unlikely. I doubt he could have swung a third nomination: people would be tired of his sermonizing and naivete.
Reagan: at first blush I'd think he'd be like Ike but given Iran/Contra, I suspect he would have stepped aside without an attempt at a third term.
Bush the Elder: assuming he won re-election in '92, I have difficulty seeing him violating the no-third-term custom.
Clinton: there would be a sizable element favoring a third term, and an equally sizable element yelling bloody murder against it. I'd have to wonder what Hillary would have to say?
Bush the Younger: I doubt the GOP would let him near a third term.
 
Truman: Tried to run in 52 but lost the NH primary by a mile.

Eisenhower: He would have thought it was time to retire. After all, he was the only president to pass the age of 70 at the time.

JFK: There is much information to suggest he was in such poor health that he would not even have survived a second term.

Reagan: He and his party would have seen that his wits were weakening and he would not have run.

Clinton: After impeachment, his party might not support him. Like Reagan and JFK, he shared the gift of charisma, so who knows.

Bush Jr: He wouldn't even try.
 
I think FDR removed that custom altogether. If the 22nd Amendment was not enacted, his successors would have felt perfectly enabled to run for as many terms as they wanted. In practice, however, the issue would have only affected 4 presidents: Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush II. Personally, I believe the first three would be under strong pressure by their party to seek a third term as they were still popular among key constituencies, and all would have probably won. Eisenhower and Reagan might have declined to run again because of health and age issues, but Clinton almost certainly would have - and won the election. It's hard to imagine Bush II running for a 3rd term, but as an Obama supporter, I sure wish he did.

As an aside, I think the 22nd amendment is one of the worst ideas.
 
I think FDR removed that custom altogether. If the 22nd Amendment was not enacted, his successors would have felt perfectly enabled to run for as many terms as they wanted. In practice, however, the issue would have only affected 4 presidents: Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush II. Personally, I believe the first three would be under strong pressure by their party to seek a third term as they were still popular among key constituencies, and all would have probably won. Eisenhower and Reagan might have declined to run again because of health and age issues, but Clinton almost certainly would have - and won the election. It's hard to imagine Bush II running for a 3rd term, but as an Obama supporter, I sure wish he did.

As an aside, I think the 22nd amendment is one of the worst ideas.

I don't think the fact that FDR ran for four terms would have totally destroyed the tradition of only running for two. IIRC Roosevelt caught a whole lot of flak for running for more than two terms, so I can definitely see future presidents maintaining the tradition, even if it's not a law.
 
I don't think the fact that FDR ran for four terms would have totally destroyed the tradition of only running for two. IIRC Roosevelt caught a whole lot of flak for running for more than two terms, so I can definitely see future presidents maintaining the tradition, even if it's not a law.

There's also the fact that FDR justified breaking precedent by arguing that in the middle of World War II a change in administration would be too disruptive and could damage the US's security. I would think that the next President seeking a third term would need a similarly compelling reason.
 
There's also the fact that FDR justified breaking precedent by arguing that in the middle of World War II a change in administration would be too disruptive and could damage the US's security. I would think that the next President seeking a third term would need a similarly compelling reason.
Only problem with this theory is he was elceted to his Third term 13 months before Pearl Harbor.
 
Only problem with this theory is he was elceted to his Third term 13 months before Pearl Harbor.

True, but by the election World War II was over a year old and the the US was already sending Lend-Lease aid to Britain; while the US was not fighting in the war it was still very much a major election issue and was cited as a reason not to change the government.
 

CalBear

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Ike: Maybe, might not have WANTED the job again.
JFK: err...
LBJ: Didn't make two terms
Nixon: Didn't make two terms
Ford: Never actually elected to the Job
Carter: Please; barely survived the 1st term
Reagan: Would have DIED as President or damned close to it.
George HW: One termer
Clinton: He'd be running for term five right now.
George W: Unlikely (of course that's what we said in 2004, so...)

Reagan and Clinton were about as opposite as you can get in most areas, one exception being political ability. For every person who hated them (and they both had a bunch of haters) they had 1.25 who loved them as POTUS and the campaign skills to make sure ALL of the supporters voted while keeping half of the haters home.
 
Keep in mind that it would be possidle to serve non-consecutive terms.
Bill clinton probably would have chosen not to run in 2000 but by 2004, people probably wouldn't have cared about the whole monica lewinsky affair. They would just be thrilled to have him back.
 
I support the 22nd Amendment, but then I am always paranoid about anyone becoming too powerful.
Actually, this gives me an idea for the pre-1900 forum...
 
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