I doubt a Dubya campaign in 2000 w/o the Lewinsky Scandal but do expect it to have happened w/ Lewinsky...he kept high popularity but right after it would've been a tough one...GWB would likely have seen his opportunity and ran in 2000 if Lewinsky happened as in OTL. Remember though Clinton only won b/c of Perot's vote-splitting in 92. Clinton would likely have known this and stepped down, perhaps waiting a few cycles before running again. Those southern states are big on family values and wouldn't have gone for more of these affairs right in the Oval Office.
Clinton enjoyed high numbers through Election Day 2000. Thanks in no small part to his enemies' fatally overreaching themselves by going all out for Impeachment, Trial, and Removal. Hillary's declared "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy" stopped being a joke after Ken Starr and the House Impeachment managers were exposed as the fools they were. 9/11 throws too many butterflies to predict a 2004 outcome, but it's hard to see Clinton doing worse than Bush. If he runs and wins, GOP victory in 2008 is a metaphysical certainty. Unless they overreach AGAIN.
jerseyrules said:
A 2008 run for GWB if everything OTL happened as usual; he had his bags packed by primary season.
GWB running in 2008? After his 2006 "thumping"? With every poll in the country (except Karl Rove's

) pointing to a bad year for the GOP? By the time Election Day rolled around the financial crisis (thank you de-regulation) had already hit. Bush might have RUN, but he would have been crushed more thoroughly than McCain, against ANY Democrat. There was good reason why McCain didn't want Bush campaigning for him.
jerseyrules said:
However he would likely have been much more careful with Iraq and Afghanistan, etc. and his approval ratings* had there been no term limits and the reason he was so ready to leave was because of the constant attacks from both sides**, and he would've listened more*** if there were no term limits.****
*- 1) The Bush Administration operated in a full-time re-election mode from Election Day 2000 to the closing days of McCain's campaign. ALL decisions were made based on their POLITICAL effects. It's hard to imagine how anyone could possibly be MORE careful with his poll numbers than he (or Karl Rove) was.
**- 2) The first time I see a recording of a prominent Republican in-office politician making "constant attacks" on BUSH WHILE BUSH WAS IN OFFICE will be the first. And McCain doesn't count. If there was one thing Bush always had in his favor, it was the complete lockstep loyalty he had from his own party.
***- 3) Bush was the DECIDER. NOT the listener. The only person he listened to was Karl Rove, a man totally incapable of seeing any problem except in its political dimension. Donald Rumsfeld, and even Dick Cheney could find themselves SOMETIMES frozen out. Never Karl.
****- 4) Without term limits, it would have meant even MORE politicking by the Bush Administration, and even LESS attention paid to the day-to-day running of the government. Meaning a viscous cycle in which Bush faces an even sharper charge of being the "Campaigner-In-Chief".