No 1990 German reunification

Would it be possible for FRG and GDR to remain separate states even after fall of communsit rule in alter? Let's say France and SU don't think it's a good idea and i sist they remain separate. Both are recognised as fully sovereign states as was reunified FRG in OTL but separated. SU withdraws forces as per OTL, as it does from all other former WarPac countries.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Would it be possible for FRG and GDR to remain separate states even after fall of communsit rule in alter? Let's say France and SU don't think it's a good idea and i sist they remain separate. Both are recognised as fully sovereign states as was reunified FRG in OTL but separated. SU withdraws forces as per OTL, as it does from all other former WarPac countries.

Without the reunification the west would not have invested as much in the east, and east would have been emptied to an even larger degree than in OTL. Probably to a degree of collapse and the chaos following would have been tremendously more serious than the OTL ossie/wessie skirmishes.

At the bottom line Helmut Kohl was one of history's great men, acting swiftly when a narrow window of opportunity opened briefly, and saved us all for a lot of trouble and some serious risks.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Would it be possible for FRG and GDR to remain separate states even after fall of communsit rule in alter?

No it's not possible in September 1989 alone 55'000 people left the East. 150'000 more moved to Hungary to do the same (Hungary had previously destroyed his section of the Iron Curtain). Several stores and factories had to close as their workers left. If there is no reunification this migration will continue and even increase until the DDR colapses and as absolutly nobody wants a failed state in Central Europe the reunification will still happen.
 
No it's not possible in September 1989 alone 55'000 people left the East. 150'000 more moved to Hungary to do the same (Hungary had previously destroyed his section of the Iron Curtain). Several stores and factories had to close as their workers left. If there is no reunification this migration will continue and even increase until the DDR colapses and as absolutly nobody wants a failed state in Central Europe the reunification will still happen.

There's that joke from the 80s: Erich Honnecker walks through East Berlin alone in the night and finds a trace. Suddenly, he discovers more and more traces which finally channel towards a single hole in the Berlin Wall. Over it is written in graffiti: "Come over, Honnie! You're last, we're waiting for you!"

:D
 
No it's not possible.
It is entirely possible!

East and West Germany had to ask 'permission' from Russia, UK, USA and France before it could unite, as the two German states were still officially occupied by those countries. Part of the Reunification Treaty was Germany gaining full sovereignty again.

If any one of these four powers had decided against reunification, or perhaps started a wider discussion on the two Germanies not reuniting, it could have lead to the very real possibility of it not happening.

There would be the possibility of 'cooler heads' prevailing. Perhaps the West Germany government realistically looking at the cost of reunification and hesitating and those in power or vested interests in East Germany perhaps calling for continued independence with a democratic and market economy.

This could have lead to a situation a bit like when Poland joined the EU. With an initial movement out of Poland seeking work and wealth in western Europe and then returning when Poland's economy picked up.

A viable East German state was entirely possible.
 
It is entirely possible!

East and West Germany had to ask 'permission' from Russia, UK, USA and France before it could unite, as the two German states were still officially occupied by those countries. Part of the Reunification Treaty was Germany gaining full sovereignty again.

If any one of these four powers had decided against reunification, or perhaps started a wider discussion on the two Germanies not reuniting, it could have lead to the very real possibility of it not happening.

There would be the possibility of 'cooler heads' prevailing. Perhaps the West Germany government realistically looking at the cost of reunification and hesitating and those in power or vested interests in East Germany perhaps calling for continued independence with a democratic and market economy.

This could have lead to a situation a bit like when Poland joined the EU. With an initial movement out of Poland seeking work and wealth in western Europe and then returning when Poland's economy picked up.

A viable East German state was entirely possible.

I disagree, the economy in East Germany was hevily reliant on the USSR and would quickly have fallen with the USSR. The powers in your scenario may have have hesitaited but haveing a(nother) anarchistc and chaoitic state in Eastern Europe didn't look to appitizeing.
 
There's that joke from the 80s: Erich Honnecker walks through East Berlin alone in the night and finds a trace....
:D
You wouldn't believe how fast colours of "Western democracy" fade in eyes of Eastern engineer or plant manager once s/he understands that s/he would have to start from very beginning after immigration. Emigration to Israel from Russian Federation stopped in mid-1990s immediately after Russian GDP per capita reached third of Israel's.
I disagree, the economy in East Germany was hevily reliant on the USSR and would quickly have fallen with the USSR. The powers in your scenario may have have hesitaited but haveing a(nother) anarchistc and chaoitic state in Eastern Europe didn't look to appitizeing.
Economically E. Germany was better off than Czechoslovakia and without unification would remain there (it still is there, for all intents and purposes, Eastern "Lander" trailing behind West but are ahead of Czech Republic).

Edit: without unification East Germany would have massive economical advantage of being FRG's outsourcing base (what Estonia did IOTL for Finland).
 
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I disagree, the economy in East Germany was hevily reliant on the USSR and would quickly have fallen with the USSR. The powers in your scenario may have have hesitaited but haveing a(nother) anarchistc and chaoitic state in Eastern Europe didn't look to appitizeing.
The same could be said for Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Moldova.....and on and on. Just because East Germany was economically entwined with the USSR, does not mean that it would not have found a new economic path like all the countries listed above. Though some of these countries have problems, I would not call any of them anarchistic nor chaotic.

East Germany was not a failed state, though it was suffering a huge loss of population when the wall first came down, this was because many East Germans had very real fears of missing out on an opportunity to escape their country and you have to understand that at the time, there was no guarantee that the wall would remain open nor that the USSR would not intervene as it had done in the past.

When such concerns were no longer, such a population loss would have slowed considerably, and even reversed to a degree.

Economically E. Germany was better off than Czechoslovakia and without unification would remain there (it still is there, for all intents and purposes, Eastern "Lander" trailing behind West but are ahead of Czech Republic).

Edit: without unification East Germany would have massive economical advantage of being FRG's outsourcing base (what Estonia did IOTL for Finland).
This is a high possibility. Instead of economic unification with West Germany, East Germany could have floated its exchange rate to give itself a huge economic advantage over West Germany that was lost in monetary union with the Deutschmark.

IMO East Germany would have become the most prosperous of the former communist bloc, ahead of Czech Republic and the Baltics. It would have also entered the EU and profited not only from EU subsidies, but would have still received considerable subsidies from West Germany (though not as much as IOTL)
 
If any one of these four powers had decided against reunification, or perhaps started a wider discussion on the two Germanies not reuniting, it could have lead to the very real possibility of it not happening.

No, if there is opposition to the Unification then East Germany will collaps within months as more and more people leave for the west, and then the four powers would either have to put up with a failed state or allow a reunification. Since nobody wanted the former the would have to allow a reunification anyway.
 
No, if there is opposition to the Unification then East Germany will collaps within months as more and more people leave for the west
This exodus is conditional on W. Germany sponsoring each and every refugee for months, if not years, and even FRG doesn't have deep enough coffers to do it. Besides, Czech example proves that E. Germany would be very likely to reach pretty decent living standards in a year or two. Decent enough to make migration idea utterly stupid for majority of E. Germans.
 
Even if East Germany has a strong enough economy to survive, how much popular legitimacy does it have?

In The Third World War by John Hackett, the Powers forbid German reunification in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse and the Germanies don't protest it as much as one might think because the East Germans were developing an identity of their own that involved their Prussian (!) roots and a skepticism of "decadent capitalism."

However, I was under the impression the Soviets did not trust the East German military to fight against the West Germans and for this reasons, East German units were closely shadowed by Soviet forces lest they start getting ideas.
 
Even if East Germany has a strong enough economy to survive, how much popular legitimacy does it have?
Way more than infinite number of dubious regimes Powers are supporting around the world for different reasons today. Can anyone spell "Egypt"? How about "Mexico" or "Ukraine"?

However, I was under the impression the Soviets did not trust the East German military to fight against the West Germans and for this reasons, East German units were closely shadowed by Soviet forces lest they start getting ideas.
E. Germans were one of most trusted militaries of Warsaw Pact, if not THE most trusted.
 
Well, maybe with a PoD a little earlier than 1990.

OTL, when Gorbachev pushed his Perestroika and reforms, the GDR (Honnecker and the SED in particular) remained blockheaded and stuck to the old politics (which subsequently failed)
Perhaps somehow starting reforms around '87 or early '88 might do the trick. After all, when the wall finally fell in November '89, most of the thousands of East Berlin citizens which visited the western part that night actually went back after a couple of hours, and almost noone expected a reunification right off the bat (me neither, my first guess that night were 15 to 25 years should both nations wish for unification)
 
Way more than infinite number of dubious regimes Powers are supporting around the world for different reasons today. Can anyone spell "Egypt"? How about "Mexico" or "Ukraine"?

Utterly irrelevant. Your ideology is showing.

Can you answer the question I asked more specifically without snarking about how evil America is?
 
Utterly irrelevant. Your ideology is showing.
Absolutely relevant. Possibly low level of popular support wouldn't be a problem for America approving this decision as part of global political horsetrading.
Can you answer the question I asked more specifically without snarking about how evil America is?
Not being German and not living in Germany at this point, I can't. What's more important, I doubt even Germans wholeheartedly can. Just like all of them were anti-fascists once Allies occupied Germany in 1945 (read American memoirs), all Germans in 1990 were patriots who approved reunification without reservations. Just like all Soviet communist functionaries became democrats overnight in 1991.
 
Absolutely relevant. Possibly low level of popular support wouldn't be a problem for America approving this decision as part of global political horsetrading.

A better point. It initially appeared you were just simply smarting off about U.S. foreign policy.

However, how long could this East German government last if the people dislike it? I assume the U.S. is not going to intervene to support it with force if it starts to crumble a la Hungary in 1956.
 
Did the people dislike it? Once they had a "democracy" (I disagree with even the U.S counting as properly democratic), why bother putting effort into it? They wouldn't know it would end up like OTL.

Even if the East Germans wanted it, pragmatic opinion in the West could easily be against- the potential economic drain would be obvious.
 
Did the people dislike it? Once they had a "democracy" (I disagree with even the U.S counting as properly democratic), why bother putting effort into it? They wouldn't know it would end up like OTL.

Even if the East Germans wanted it, pragmatic opinion in the West could easily be against- the potential economic drain would be obvious.

And is the West willing to use economic sanctions or outright force if the East Germans want unification anyway?
 
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