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The basic POD is that in a fit of depression Napoleon commits suicide during his exile on the Island of Elba. Thus he never returns to the mainland leading to no 100 days campaign. This has a direct effect on the Congress of Vienna which without the 100 days to promote compromise, stalemates.

Eventually Prussia and Russia try to force the Polish/Saxon issue by invading Saxony and the Austrian portion of Poland. This tips off yet another war in which Britain and France join Austria against Prussia and Russia (Russia in OTL believed she could win such a war interestingly enough...)

A few questions
-How plausible is this scenario? Any "experts" care to comment?
-Without Napoleon 1 are the Bonapartists still a political force in early 19th century France?
-How long would it take Prussia/Russia to be defeated? What would the peace look like?
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