No 100 days, Polish-Saxon Crisis = War?

Valdemar II

Banned
...which wont exist ITTL, what with a breakdown of the Congress....

I think some kind of German Confederation is necessary, at the very least to cool down the nationalists, but also because most German states have a interest in one.



Well, before the elites usurped it, nationalism was mostly connected with liebralism and democracy, so in this scenario it would be on the western ideological side...

Yes but the fact that France is on that side will likely cool them to westen side.
 

Susano

Banned
I think some kind of German Confederation is necessary, at the very least to cool down the nationalists, but also because most German states have a interest in one.
Eh... hm. YOu might have a point actually. Most German states after 1815 were reactionary after all. And seeing what the GC did IOTL, coordinating measures against the nationalist-democrats that means most states would have an interest in it. So I could see it forming around Prussia, with Austria maybe even staying outside. Probably Baden as the most liberal of the German states, too, and maybe Württemberg, too...

Yes but the fact that France is on that side will likely cool them to westen side.
Not necessarily. As said, we speak about 1848 here. "An united, democratic Germany in a confederated Europe" or somesuch. Indeed, many German nationalists club were at first (before there was a crackdown on that, too) kinda-disguised as polophile clubs, and they didnt have to fake that polophilia. Oh of course, both German and French nationalists wills ay the Alsace is theirs, but that are issues that dont explode into hostility until they arise. If France is able to crack down on its government-level rhethorics, their involvment is not a hinderance.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The thing was that IOTL Napoleon would have been crushed anyways. If not by the British and Prussians in Waterloo, then by the really massive armies the Russians were just in the process of marching westwards, which dwarved all western armies. The Russians could win the war against France and Austria by sheer numbers alone, especially if joined by Prussia (it has to be formulated this way, I guess).

However, by 1814/15 everybody was very war weary. That is why no new war broke out over the post-napoleonic order. There were already provisional borders and if the Congress breaks down, those borders would simply remain, maybe with some biliteral treaties changing things (for example maybe Prussia exchanges Silesia for Saxony, or Bavaria and Austria trade the Palatinate for Salzburg, or somesuch).

I'm not really not convinced that everyone was that war-weary, especially not Russia, although Britain and France may well be. There was serious talk of war about this issue, and the powers were ready to restart war when Nappy returned IOTL. So I rather believe that either Britain, France, and Austria back down and the original Poland-Saxony plan gets implemented, or a brief war occurs where France falls to a Liberal-Bonapartist revolution, and Austria gets its butt handed on a plate.

Russia still gets Posen and Galicia. If you believe the Prussian gains I propsoed excessive, then Prussia gains, Saxony, Austrian Silesia, and southern Hannover (to build a land connection between Rhineland-Westphalia and Brandenburg). Murat throws his lot with the Prussian/Russian Alliance, and defeats Austria, gets his rule over Naples recognized.

Prussia gets the leadership of the German Confederation. Your early Cold War occurs between Britain/France and Russia/Prussia, although Russia supports a confederal Prussian-led unification of Grreater Germany over a cowed Austria. A liberal Naples takes the lead of Italian unification. Early liberal revolution in France butterflies the separation of Belgium and Netherlands away.

Your early Cold War may still happen, but likely only after the war.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Here's the new border I propose for Prussia after the war:

2iizzas.png
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Eh... hm. YOu might have a point actually. Most German states after 1815 were reactionary after all. And seeing what the GC did IOTL, coordinating measures against the nationalist-democrats that means most states would have an interest in it. So I could see it forming around Prussia, with Austria maybe even staying outside. Probably Baden as the most liberal of the German states, too, and maybe Württemberg, too...

I think both Prussia and Austria would join to keep the lesser states in line.


Not necessarily. As said, we speak about 1848 here. "An united, democratic Germany in a confederated Europe" or somesuch. Indeed, many German nationalists club were at first (before there was a crackdown on that, too) kinda-disguised as polophile clubs, and they didnt have to fake that polophilia. Oh of course, both German and French nationalists wills ay the Alsace is theirs, but that are issues that dont explode into hostility until they arise. If France is able to crack down on its government-level rhethorics, their involvment is not a hinderance.

Still 1814 is only a few month away from French armies marching through Germany.
 
Prussia won't get Bohemia and Moravia, there's bigger chance that the British surrender the India than the Austria giving up those two domains.


I honestly don't understand the rational that France is a spent force....they did afterall raise a significant force for the \hundred days....and they will not be fighting on their own but be bolstered by Br and Austrian forces...

I suspect the Russo-Prussians will have bit off far more than they can swallow.
Austria is not a minor force at this point and has reformed its land forces..they will not be a cake walk that is implied.

this is the perfect opportunity for Tallyrand to get France back on the right track politically with its erstwhile opponents.

Prussia is going to get kicked and kicked hard...they will get nothing at the peace for there efforts and France could very well bolster its standing enough to get the Rhine border back. As for Russia, I doubt that personal union with Poland can be stopped even if the Russo/Prussians can be defeated...

but having Poland completely restored and remain in personal union with Saxony would be a fitting denouement, with the provision of course that Polish succession be based on strict primogeniture, and Saxony governed by Salic law. they will split when the current king of Saxony dies, Poland to his daughter, and Saxony to his brother. Of course if Maria were to be married to the Archduke Karl or Rainier well that more than brings Austria onside.

Eurofed your proposition is way off the mark....Russia is too distant of course, but Prussia is too exposed to its potential enemies.... they will be crushed, Its the reason they backed off in the first place.
 
Last edited:

Eurofed

Banned
I honestly don't understand the rational that France is a spent force....they did afterall raise a significant force for the \hundred days....and they will not be fighting on their own but be bolstered by Br and Austrian forces...

They had a crushing case of war-weariness, they only made a supreme but half-hearted effort during the 100 Days for their beloved hyper-charismatic emperor: here they would have to fight under a widely loathed regime for Austrian and British concerns, very hardly a popular cause with the French people at large, despite what Talleyrand may say behind closed doors about the balance of power. Besides, even if Nappy is dead, at this point France is massively simmering with rebelliousness, because of the hyper-unpopular Bourbon attempts to put the clock back to 1789. There are very good reasons why Nappy was able to pull his ride back to power single-handedly, besides his personal charisma, France had discovered that the Bourbon comeback were a way worse deal than Napoleon. Such a widely unpopular war for the sake of hated yesterday enemies looks like the perfect spark to unleash a successful Liberal-Bonapartist Revolution in France, even if Nappy is dead. If it won't be the 100 Days, it shall be 1830.

Don't just look to abstract concerns about the balance of power, look at the real internal politics of the powers involved.

Austria is not a minor force at this point and has reformed its land forces..they will not be a cake walk that is implied.

Prussia has reformed his land forces too, to even greater effect, Austria shall fight them and the huge Russian armies Susano talked about, good luck with the two-front war and French aid is not really coming, they are busy kicking out Louis XVIII.

this is the perfect opportunity for Tallyrand to get France back on the right track politically with its erstwhile opponents.

He may try to explain the anti-Bourbon rebels on the barricades why war-weary France needs to spill its blood for the Habsburg. I hope he takes a bullet. ;)
 
Last edited:
They had a crushing case of war-weariness, they only made a supreme but half-hearted effort during the 100 Days for their beloved hyper-charismatic emperor: here they would have to fight under a widely loathed regime for Austrian and British concerns, very hardly a popular cause with the French people at large, despite what Talleyrand may say behind closed doors about the balance of power. Besides, even if Nappy is dead, at this point France is massively simmering with rebelliousness, because of the hyper-unpopular Bourbon attempts to put the clock back to 1789. There are very good reasons why Nappy was able to pull his ride back to power single-handedly, besides his personal charisma, France had discovered that the Bourbon comeback were a way worse deal than Napoleon. Such a widely unpopular war for the sake of hated yesterday enemies looks like the perfect spark to unleash a successful Liberal-Bonapartist Revolution in France, even if Nappy is dead. If it won't be the 100 Days, it shall be 1830.

Don't just look to abstract concerns about the balance of power, look at the real internal politics of the powers involved.



Prussia has reformed his land forces too, to even greater effect, Austria shall fight them and the huge Russian armies Susano talked about, good luck with the two-front war and French aid is not really coming, they are busy kicking out Louis XVIII.



He may try to explain the anti-Bourbon rebels on the barricades why war-weary France needs to spill its blood for the Habsburg. I hope he takes a bullet. ;)

your placing too much faith that a liberal/Bonapartist uprising will occur...it did not occur OTL there is no reason to think that it will here... and no reason to support such a supposition. thus your arguement is absolutely groundless.

If there is no uprising that you suppose then Prussia is toast...

and that is my supposition... that Austria, France and Britain can operate to contain the Russo Prussian armies... in that case.They cannot hurt Russia so much but the aspirations of Prussia will be crushed. Russian influence will be curtailed.

Oh and this is not a ploy to save the Hapsburg as you suggest...but one to save the Wettins of Saxony, allies of France through the entire course of the napoleonic conflict...there is no reason to think that the French will not support one who has supported them in the past.
 

Eurofed

Banned
your placing too much faith that a liberal/Bonapartist uprising will occur...it did not occur OTL there is no reason to think that it will here... and no reason to support such a supposition. thus your arguement is absolutely groundless.

What do you think the 100 Days was all about ? Napoleon single-handedly using his Jedi Mind Control to brainwash Bourbon-loving France in obeying him again ?

:eek::rolleyes:

If there is no uprising that you suppose then Prussia is toast...

There are still the huge Russian armies, France has no longer Napoleon's genius to help it...

Oh and this is not a ploy to save the Hapsburg as you suggest...but one to save the Wettins of Saxony, allies of France through the entire course of the napoleonic conflict...there is no reason to think that the French will not support one who has supported them in the past.

That excuse didn't rouse war-weary France to fight the Russo-Prussians for Napoleon in 1814, can't see why it should work now, Tallyrand doesn't even have Napoleon's Jedi Mind Control and everybody and his dog in France hates Louis XVIII by now.
 
What do you think the 100 Days was all about ? Napoleon single-handedly using his Jedi Mind Control to brainwash Bourbon-loving France in obeying him again ?

:eek::rolleyes:

NO



There are still the huge Russian armies, France has no longer Napoleon's genius to help it...

Napoleon is not the only General in the French stable with ability.... indeed at this point he is a bit worn out. and there are others that are much more capable.
Davout, Soult and Suchet all come to mind. they will have an excellent organizer in Berthier.

That excuse didn't rouse war-weary France to fight the Russo-Prussians for Napoleon in 1814, can't see why it should work now, Tallyrand doesn't even have Napoleon's Jedi Mind Control and everybody and his dog in France hates Louis XVIII by now.

the point is.... the French/ British and Austrians WERE prepared to go to war over this and would....

they would be aiding the Saxons, a former French ally and no it didn't come to it in OTL because the Prussians and Russians pulled back from the brink.

As to everyone hating the bourbons... it is too early for that... the majority of the French marshals are now in Bourbon service for now and absent Napoleon will do their duty for France. If mounting yet another campaign against the Russo/Prussians gives the promise of improving the French bargaining position then off to war they will go. Call this the alternate 100 days campaign, but instead of operating against everyone by themselves they have substantial allies other than the minor German states. the South German states , all also former allies will certainly join the fray to stop the aggrandizzement of Prussia within Germany at the expense of another German ally.

Beauharnais and Murat will almost certainly use the opportunity to strengthen their hands in Italy as well.

Not to mention that the Danes and Swedes might also be looking to improve their positions as well...

your scenario essentially rests on a liberal bonapartist uprising in France to be effective, a supposition that is not born out by the facts

Honestly where are you getting this Russo / Prussian juggernaut runs rampant scenario it ignores completely the political reality on the ground and the advantages that would be afforded to those that would oppose this Russo-Prussian move.
 
Last edited:

Eurofed

Banned
the point is.... the French/ British and Austrians WERE prepared to go to war over this and would....

Of course, nobody ever bluffs... :p

your scenario essentially rests on a liberal bonapartist uprising in France to be effective, a supposition that is not born out by the facts

Well, if you can't recognize the 100 Days as a Bonapartist uprising ripe to happen, it can't really be helped. You are apparently yet another believer of the magical world where the Balance of Power Priority Law applies.

:eek::rolleyes:
 
100 days

Was an attempt for napoleon to return to power yes... but it was also about restoring the French position within Europe.

Which honestly why the French followed him in the first place in that wild gamble

And yes its all about power politics... balance of power if you will... and gaining the best political advantage for your nation. The alternate Russo-Prussian campaign will offer just such to the French and they will grab it. the British in the end may have misgivings on the end result but the move will also restore the Austro -French rapprochement.
 
Top