Nixon wins in 1960- 1969 Sino-Soviet War?

[AT0N]

So, the PoD may be that Nixon nominates Thruston Morton as his VP and performs a bit better in Southern States managing to win narrowly defeat JFK.

In 1961 he orders a full-blown invasion by US Army after a Tonkin-like provocation instead of what JFK did IRL. Castro is toppled and there is no Cuban Missile Crisis.

In 1964 with good economy and and a success in Cuba Nixon is reelected (let's also say that Oswald also tries to kill him for the Cuban invasion but fails). Nixon doesn't intervene in Vietnam because he is too smart to believe in "Domino theory" an thinks that Vietnam is not really important for US geopolitics. Saigon falls in 1967 and democrats nominate Henry Jackson on a platform of more hawkish foreign policy and more left-wing economy. Maybe we also get a bit earlier improvement of US-PRC relations during a second Nixon's term, but that's not certain.

Because there is no Cuban Missile crisis, Khruschev's reputation is less damaged inside the CPSU and he is not deposed in 1964. Let's say that he continues to rule until his death in 1971 (which is a big if because him dying in office around 1968-1969 sounds more probable).

So, with Khruschev in power, the 1969 Damansky crisis may escalate into war. And if so, the nukes are going to be launched from both sides- the Soviets would most likely intercept almost all Chinese missiles with only one or two hitting, while China is going to suffer really hard...

What do you thing about the scenario in general? Do you think US supporting the Maoist insurgency or helping Taiwan (RoC) to reclaim the Southern parts of the country is more likely?

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

My guess is both USSR and Red China are around after the war but damaged but the US probably uses the uh internal rebellions to force Korean reunification under the south and at minimum neutralizing eastern europe.

The US isn't stupid so wouldn't egg on Taiwan. However, they probably bully Beijing into acepting a two chinas policy and make Chinese admission to the UN conditional on Beijing recognizing Taiwna.

IDK if the war alters the timing of soviet collapse, you could make arguments either way.

 

[marktaha]

I can't see Nixon not intervening in Vietnam. Perhaps more intelligently but would still have gone in.

 

[AT0N]

I can't see Nixon not intervening in Vietnam. Perhaps more intelligently but would still have gone in.

I meant no US ground troops.

My guess is both USSR and Red China are around after the war but damaged but the US probably uses the uh internal rebellions to force Korean reunification under the south and at minimum neutralizing eastern europe.

The US isn't stupid so wouldn't egg on Taiwan. However, they probably bully Beijing into acepting a two chinas policy and make Chinese admission to the UN conditional on Beijing recognizing Taiwna.

IDK if the war alters the timing of soviet collapse, you could make arguments either way.

Personally, I think that, considering the devastating damage of Soviet nukes, Mao may get deposed (with assassination or not) by Lin Biao in 1970-1971 (IRL he was accused of .such plot) in order to make peace with Soviets just to stop atomic hellfire destroying China. If US doesn't make it's reapproachment with the PRC, there is likely Taiwan jumping in and China ended up partitioned by Soviet puppet state in the North (most likely without Inner Mongolia), RoC in the South and some territory controlled by Maoist rebels.

 

[marktaha]

What effect on rest of world if Russia and China nuked each other?

 

[AT0N]

What effect on rest of world if Russia and China nuked each other?

A colossal number of Chinese refugees to Korea, Japan and US is a sure thing. As i've said before, I don't think that the USSR is going to suffer as hard (maybe 1 or two important Far Eastern cities destroyed) from nukes due to the Soviet technological superirotiy in comparison with the Chinese.

Most likely, the Soviet reputation is going to suffer a hard blow in the Third World (especially Asia) due to nuking a lot of innocent Chinese, most likely Vietnam is going to play like DPRK internationally rather than its OTL clear pro-Soviet stance. Less African socialists declaring their support of the USSR, maybe a Baathist split intensified.

The USSR itself is likely to chose kinda more isolationist and reformist path after the death of Khruschev than IRL due to the damage done by the War and more years of Khruschev's experiments.

 

[DougM]

I cant see the USSR pulling off missle intercepts in the late 60s. They may get lucky for a couple but unless chinas missles suck they are getting through. Intercepting missiles is a pita in 2023 with better tech in the 60s and 70s it is all hope and prayers.
So China will end up in a huge mess and the. USSR will be better but still not hood having lost a number of cities and military bases and what have you.

Biggest issues to keep the USSR from panicking and sending ICBM towards the west. or yo keep the West from mistakenly identifying a missle track and joining in.

 

[AT0N]

I cant see the USSR pulling off missle intercepts in the late 60s. They may get lucky for a couple but unless chinas missles suck they are getting through. Intercepting missiles is a pita in 2023 with better tech in the 60s and 70s it is all hope and prayers.
So China will end up in a huge mess and the. USSR will be better but still not hood having lost a number of cities and military bases and what have you.

Biggest issues to keep the USSR from panicking and sending ICBM towards the west. or yo keep the West from mistakenly identifying a missle track and joining in.

Like, the Chinese made their first operational nukes only by mid-60s and had much less than the Soviets. And I don't see why Moscow would panick and send anything towards the West while at war with China- the initial stage of the War is likely to favor the Soviet side while the Chinese are going to rely on defensive guerilla tactics. Still, we don't have any accurate info about modern state of the Chinese nukes so I am not sure wether there is any clear data on the issue during late 60s. And the means of elivery China had at the time would be an even more important factor to consider.

 

[marktaha]

A colossal number of Chinese refugees to Korea, Japan and US is a sure thing. As i've said before, I don't think that the USSR is going to suffer as hard (maybe 1 or two important Far Eastern cities destroyed) from nukes due to the Soviet technological superirotiy in comparison with the Chinese.

Most likely, the Soviet reputation is going to suffer a hard blow in the Third World (especially Asia) due to nuking a lot of innocent Chinese, most likely Vietnam is going to play like DPRK internationally rather than its OTL clear pro-Soviet stance. Less African socialists declaring their support of the USSR, maybe a Baathist split intensified.

The USSR itself is likely to chose kinda more isolationist and reformist path after the death of Khruschev than IRL due to the damage done by the War and more years of Khruschev's experiments.

I was thinking of environmental effects. Would the Japanese or Americans have been inclined to admit what would have been seen as Communist refugees?