Supposing that RFK had lived but gone on to lose the Democratic nomination to Hubert Humphrey in 1968, he would have been a major contender for 1972 provided that Nixon still wins in '68. (Some might argue that if RFK had lived to endorse and possibly campaign for HHH then the Dems would have carried the day in '68, however Kennedy's support for Humphrey would be lukewarm at best and I don't think this would put HHH over the top). Given that George McGovern of all people was able to upset Humphrey in the 1972 primaries, it's not out of the question that had a surviving Kennedy decided to challenge Nixon he would have beaten Humphrey this time around and he'd win the Democratic nomination. What would be the result of a Nixon vs. RFK matchup?
Nixon vs. Kennedy - in 1972
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
Here's a January 1972 piece about a Nixon v. Muskie v. Wallace race. Nixon lead Muskie - his most popular challenger - by only one point. Nixon stood at 43% while Muskie had 42%. Wallace would have gotten 12%. I expect that RFK would have narrowly lead Nixon in these early polls, but Nixon would have caught up to him once Wallace is shot and CREEP starts using dirty tricks against the Democrats.
https://www.nytimes.com/1972/01/31/...-nearly-even-at-43-and-42-in-gallup-poll.html
https://www.nytimes.com/1972/01/31/...-nearly-even-at-43-and-42-in-gallup-poll.html
Politicians don't have perfect information of the future. In late 1971/early 1972 Nixon's polling numbers were rather poor, as mentioned in the OP. RFK wouldn't know that things would improve for Nixon over the course of the year, or that 1976 would be a good election for Democrats. Running in 1972 may well look like a good gamble for him.
And if he was willing to take on the near impossible task of unseating LBJ in 1968, all because he opposed the war, then there would be nothing stopping him from entering a winnable race against Nixon for the same reason.
Nixon would be vulnerable in 1972 because after invading Cambodia in 1970, he would be perceived as "dragging his heels" over an end to the war. RFK would have been stronger than Muskie or McGovern. 1976 would have been a problem for RFK as his albatross would be fuel prices, gas shortages and inflation.
If elected in 1972, then the only way for Kennedy to win a second term is to pull off a Truman-style upset in 1976. Maybe this could be done if Reagan is nominated and Kennedy successfully portrays him as a right wing extremist, and a moderate third party candidate like Anderson splits the Republican vote. But otherwise 1972 was a really great year to lose, as RFK probably would - albiet much more narrowly than McGovern. I could see him getting at least 46% of the vote against Nixon, and if his loss is narrow enough then RFK could run again in 1976.
RousseauX
Donor
Nixon wins
RFK probably would have lost out to Nixon in 1968, he was seen as too liberal and the candidate of minorities, let along 1972 when Nixon was the incumbent and popular. Humphrey was probably the Democrats strongest candidate in '68.
RFK gets wiped out if he makes it in 1972 in the general, maybe not as much as McGovern but Nixon still wins.
RousseauX
Donor
voters have a short memory and I don't think anything that happened in 1970 was still relevant in Nov 1972
IMO RFK would still lose, but much more narrowly than McGovern. He would at least carry the core Democratic vote, and in total win 46-48% of the popular vote. In the electoral college, he would at least get 200 electoral votes and remain politically viable throughout the 1970's. After Watergate and the economic crash, Democrats may ask him to run again in in 1976. Despite losing many would see Kennedy as having done his possible best in a Republican year and would furthermore give him credit for uniting a divided party. Like Nixon in 1966, if RFK campaigns for the Democrats in the 1974 midterms this would help to enhance his status and redeem his political image after losing the White House. It's possible he runs again and is nominated in 1976, especially when you look at the weak field that year, but it's possible he isn't. If he is renominated in 1976, he certainly beats Ford.
It's a gamble that probably wouldn't pay off, but it may not ruin his career either. If RFK can run a tight enough race against Nixon, he may get the chance for a second nomination in 1976. How likely would it be for Kennedy to be renominated after losing in '72?
50/50. Dewey and Stevenson get renominated and lost, but on the other hand Nixon did and won.
Given how weak and splintered the Democratic field was in 1976, Kennedy could take it. He'd be favored heading into the fall campaign if nominated, but the last thing he should do is make the same mistake as Dewey in 1948 - taking his polling lead for granted and sitting on his hands before the general election. Otherwise I think RFK would beat Ford.
Why do you assume Wallace would be shot in the ATL? The assassin was an idiot fretting over if he brushed his teeth before his attempt, too naive to realize that massage parlours only gave handjobs. He could easily have failed or shot Nixon. Of course there’s the Wallace vs IRS play, but I think a healthy Wallace wouldn’t care.
If Wallace is in the race as a strong third party candidate—in the Southern tradition of first race to get known, second race to win—then RFK has a very good chance to beat Nixon. Otherwise yeah, Nixon and the Fed ruin the economy for a short term electoral boost and Nixon quiets down overseas just long enough for victory.
Those are all fair points. Bremer had originally intended to shoot Nixon while the President was on a diplomatic trip to Canada in April 1972 - but he didn't have an opening, as Nixon was in a limo surrounded by war protestors. If Nixon isn't doing well against Kennedy in early polling, then there's always the possibility that he'd be back in America campaigning instead. This would make Nixon more accessible to Bremer. I highly doubt that Bremer would kill Nixon, but if he makes an attempt and is caught this butterflies his attempt on Wallace. This whole scenario is far from certain to occur. But it's an example of how butterflies could impact Wallace's role in the race.