Nixon Uses the Bomb

I'm thinking of a TL where Pres. Nixon, frustrated with North Vietnamese intransigence, orders 2 nuclear bombs dropped on North Vietnam. Both 5 megatons, targeting Hanoi and Haiphong.

OTL, he considered nuclear weapons and was advised against it by Kissinger.

http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/10/25/nixon-and-the-bomb/

Simultaneously he orders a full-scale invasion of North Vietnam and tells his commanders there " There is no RoE, kill the bastards if they don't kneel at the sight of US troops."

As I see it, two things would have to happen: Kissinger is prevented from becoming either NSA or SecState, and someone is appointed to SecState who approves of heavy-handed measures like that.

I propose that Kissinger is killed in a random accident before becoming NSA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_LeMay is called out of retirement by Nixon and becomes NSA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Rumsfeld is named SecState.

Nixon sells it on TV to America as " we will not allow the freedom-hungry people of Asia to be dominated by the tyrant Communist empire's minions. Once before the US was forced to deploy the most terrible weapon in history to destroy fascist tyrany; now it is deployed against communist tyranny. I implore the Soviet Union: do not test our resolve. Hanoi and Haiphong are not worth Moscow and Minsk."

Comments?
 
It will be World War 3.

Fighting in the South alone is a big enough problem, no need to get bog down in fighting in North Vietnam, and China pulling a 1950, and rushing into North Vietnam. This will pissed off the USSR and China to the point of 'Yes, Hanoi and Haiphong ARE in fact worth Moscow and Minsk Mr. Nixon.'

We will be in a war with China by dropping nukes, and invading the North.
 
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Driftless

Donor
In spite of his many insecurities and character flaws, Nixon was an extremely competent diplomat. He would have a very rational reading of how enemies, allies, and non-aligned powers would react and he would have made layered plans from there. I honestly think he'd be less likely to employ nuclear weapons than some of the other post-war presidents.
 

Driftless

Donor
Though more likely to do the threat.
Kissinger was the 'Good Cop' remember


Oh yeah - to be sure! But that's also with Nixon taking thorough diplomatic temperatures to see just how far he could push, without going too far. His fellow Navy officers during WW2 said he was a great poker player - they never knew when he was bullshitting and when he really had the cards... Nixon was a crook, but you were never quite sure when....:biggrin:
 
In spite of his many insecurities and character flaws, Nixon was an extremely competent diplomat. He would have a very rational reading of how enemies, allies, and non-aligned powers would react and he would have made layered plans from there. I honestly think he'd be less likely to employ nuclear weapons than some of the other post-war presidents.

Oh i beg to differ. i think he seriously actually wanted to do it, he just hoped the North Vietnamese will give him the chance, the excuse. He knew that because of public opinion and the US military situation in Vietnam meant he had to do everything he can to put an end to the war. But, personally, he was ready to give those commies a good licking and knew that if the North Vietnamese would do something aggressive and provoking he would have no trouble getting the public behind him again and solve the inability of the US military to fight the North Vietnamese with a nuke. That, would turn the next elections in his favor for sure.

Proof of this is in his escalation of the bombing of Vietnam again and secret talks with the North Vietnamese whilst doing it, anything to frustrate the North Vietnamese to make a mistake. Unfortunately for him they never did.

Imagine the North Vietname violation the peace talks or ceasefires or endanger the release of prisoners. Any one of those acts could have escalated the war yet again and given the perfect excuse for Nixon to go all out. Because this time it would be on the North Veitnamese.
 
I believe that he got totally drunk and ordered a nuclear strike but the joint chiefs of staff overruled him.
If we're thinking about the same incident, he told them to get one ready but never actually ordered it delivered?
 

Tovarich

Banned
Hanoi and Haiphong are not worth Moscow and Minsk.

Somebody may suggest to him that Vietnam is not worth the UK, France*, FRG, Italy, Portugal, Norway, Denmark, Greece, Turkey, Canada, plus the Kiwis & Aussies getting out of there even quicker than OTL.

Because if Nixon's chucking those things around just to up his voter approval, nobody's letting him keep them in their country any more.


* (yes, I know, still de facto NATO.)
 
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Somebody may suggest to him that Vietnam is not worth the UK, France*, FRG, Italy, Portugal, Norway, Denmark, Greece, Turkey, Canada, plus the Kiwis & Aussies getting out of there even quicker than OTL.

Because if Nixon's chucking those things around just to up his voter approval, nobody's letting him keep them in their country any more.


* (yes, I know, still de facto NATO.)

At the same time, he be causing what everyone had fear and been trying to avoid: A replay of 1950 with the PLA rushing over the border into North Vietnam to kick our asses just like in Korea. Besides, even if you drop two nukes on the North, a invasion would be logistically and operationally impossible unless you been working on it the whole time. It took us FOUR YEARS just to build the necessary infrastructure just to be able to operate in South Vietnam. It would have required hundreds of thousands of more troops, untold billions and time. Time China, and the Soviet Union would not give if Nixon is dropping nukes.

At the same time, you can bet Moscow to be serious threatening a invasion of say Berlin, or Greece, or Taiwan by China. And then you have North Korea to deal with. (AKA: The Pueblo Incident with Nixon ordering nuclear attack options against the DPRK over it.)

So....World War 3 between 1968-1972 at the very worst.
 
I appreciate everyone's comments.

I'm not convinced that the Soviets would be willing to start WW3 over this. Despite the inhumanity of their system, the Soviets were rational actors. They would realize that striking the US & Western Europe in retaliation would lead to the destruction of the Soviet Union as well. It just wouldn't make sense: Take actions that would lead to the nuclear scouring of the Motherland because of the destruction of 2 cities in Vietnam? I think not. The Rodina must be preserved above all, I think they would say. It would give the Soviets a free hand to use such weapons in a similar fashion. For instance, Afghanistan would be in for a bad time later.

As for China, Mao was getting old and slowly being replaced in power while still being honored publicly. The leadership coming up would have made some kind of statement about the inhumanity of Nixon and perhaps threatened to use China's small nuclear arsenal if the US had any ideas about attacking China. It's also worth noting that the contempt between China and Vietnam long predates communism, and is difficult to overstate.

This might be implausible, but not impossible or ASB.
 
I do not believe the Soviets will reapond with war but peace. Elections in Europe begin to more heavily favor pro-Soviet candidates with Italy and France potentially falling into Moscow's orbit. Elsewhere India and Persia start to distance themselves from the US which earns the ire of Vietnam and becomes an international pariah for a decade.
 
While I don't expect WWIII over this, the Chinese would love to come over the border for a variety of reasons. Once the dust settles the greatest nightmare since 1945 will have come true - nukes are out. Once they are out, what stops India/Pakistan? What stops South Africa? Once nukes are now "usable, many countries that don't have them OTL will want them, because you can't be without them.
 
I appreciate everyone's comments.

I'm not convinced that the Soviets would be willing to start WW3 over this. Despite the inhumanity of their system, the Soviets were rational actors. They would realize that striking the US & Western Europe in retaliation would lead to the destruction of the Soviet Union as well. It just wouldn't make sense: Take actions that would lead to the nuclear scouring of the Motherland because of the destruction of 2 cities in Vietnam? I think not. The Rodina must be preserved above all, I think they would say. It would give the Soviets a free hand to use such weapons in a similar fashion. For instance, Afghanistan would be in for a bad time later.

As for China, Mao was getting old and slowly being replaced in power while still being honored publicly. The leadership coming up would have made some kind of statement about the inhumanity of Nixon and perhaps threatened to use China's small nuclear arsenal if the US had any ideas about attacking China. It's also worth noting that the contempt between China and Vietnam long predates communism, and is difficult to overstate.

This might be implausible, but not impossible or ASB.

I do not believe the Soviets will reapond with war but peace. Elections in Europe begin to more heavily favor pro-Soviet candidates with Italy and France potentially falling into Moscow's orbit. Elsewhere India and Persia start to distance themselves from the US which earns the ire of Vietnam and becomes an international pariah for a decade.

While I don't expect WWIII over this, the Chinese would love to come over the border for a variety of reasons. Once the dust settles the greatest nightmare since 1945 will have come true - nukes are out. Once they are out, what stops India/Pakistan? What stops South Africa? Once nukes are now "usable, many countries that don't have them OTL will want them, because you can't be without them.

I think that's it.

Would Nixon risk breaking the taboo and turn nukes into a tactical weapon? Over North Vietnam? Risk ruining relations with key allies in Europe, France and Italy? Persia?

Even then, I doubt this will win the war, but only further screw over the USA. South Vietnam was pretty screw since the CIA and South Vietnam Armed Forces killed Ngo Dinh Diem. Say what you will about the bloody idiot, he did do a lot a good for the South. (Pro-Catholic in a majority Buddhist State and others aside.) But when he died, SV became a outright junta, and a revolving door of military coups and countercoups that ruined all the progress made before.) So nuking and invading North Vietnam: It will a million ways worst then the OTL war.

Once Hanoi and Haiphong are gone, all ill will between Vietnam and China would be throw out the widow as the PLA bring on the nightmare of the Pentagon: Another Korea. Say goodbye to any normalizing between the USA and PRC.

And again what stopping North Korea from restarting the war with the USA and the South now? Nothing.
 
This is only possible if the soviet union nukes China, and america gets a freehand in veitnam in exchange. Anything else causes problems.
 
And again what stopping North Korea from restarting the war with the USA and the South now? Nothing.

Nothing?
hundreds of tacnukes says otherwise.

Sure, they can restart,but not like what would happen next, give that Tricky Dick just glassed the two largest Metro areas in North Vietnam
 
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