Minnesota wasn't as solid blue as you seem to think it is. It only went to Kennedy by 1.43% in 1960, and if Nixon gets someone like Harold Stassen more active in the campaign there, it could easily swing Minnesota's electoral votes to Nixon in '64. I might give you New York, but I was picturing a more involved Nelson Rockefeller since Goldwater is not running, and in 1963 New York had a largely Republican representation in Congress. Additionally, Scranton will pick up more votes with the Mid-Atlantic, so you can give New Jersey and maybe Maryland to Nixon.JFK would still win because Nixon cannot carry Deep Southern states. Let's not forget in 1964 Nixon was still seen as a civil rights liberal, and even in 1968 Nixon was in third place in Louisiana behind Wallace and Humphrey. Minnesota is far too liberal- a solid Blue state then as now. Nixon carrying NY is also ASB, since it was a solid Blue state. The map is frankly ASB and the outcome with a post-Dallas domestic POD is borderline ASB. Period. Sorry if I sound a bit harsh, but those are the facts as I (and other Sixtologists) know them.
Here's a relatively close election as I see it.
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(D) John F. Kennedy/ Lyndon B. Johnson: 296 EV, 50.8%
(R) Richard M. Nixon/ William W. Scranton: 242 EV, 49.1%
Incumbent President: John Kennedy (D)
On the South, I think they would definitely not vote for Kennedy since he is pushing through the Civil Rights Act, or perhaps passed it by the time of the election. Would Wallace throw his endorsement to Nixon in 1964 if Kennedy isn't assassinated, assuming that Wallace does as well in the Democratic primaries as he did in OTL? And if Kennedy tries to delay its passage until after the election to keep the deep South, there goes Kennedy's refutation to Nixon's claim that all he's done is bring the country to the brink of nuclear war.
So, Nixon only needs 28 electoral votes to get the election. New Jersey gives 17, and Minnesota and... say Kentucky, since it had a Republican Senate at the time, gives Nixon the presidency. Or just give Nixon Ohio and Alaska, which he won in 1960.
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