Nixon in '56?

Dwight Eisenhower very nearly chose not to run for reelection in 1956. What if he chose to retire?

On the Republican side, Nixon declares and quickly becomes the early frontrunner, despite Ike's backchannel efforts to find a challenger as in OTL 1960. Bill Knowland emerges as Nixon's main (conservative) opposition, but Nixon prevails and selects Gov. Christian Herter of Massachusetts as his running mate.

On the Democratic side, the contest is similar to OTL, although LBJ might make a run which might potentially divide the vote enough to make Averell Harriman the nominee. My guess is that Stevenson still emerges as the nominee, however, perhaps picking LBJ as his running mate.

In the general election, Nixon/Herter defeats Stevenson/Johnson by a comfortable margin, if smaller than Ike's victory over Stevenson four years earlier.

Going forward, how does an earlier President Nixon deal with the late '50s recession, the Cuban Revolution, and the U-2 spy plane incident? Does he win reelection in 1960, and who is his opponent?

What are people's thoughts? And any disagreements on the 1956 campaign dynamics I described?
 
Recession: Nixon will pump-prime, since he was always a Keynesian and IOTL blamed Martin's monetarism for costing him the '60 election.

Cuban Revolution: Support Batista.

U-2: Same as Ike, though butterflies probably prevent it.

'60: JFK will be his opponent, and with the advantage of incumbency Nixon should be favored.
 
Recession: Nixon will pump-prime, since he was always a Keynesian and IOTL blamed Martin's monetarism for costing him the '60 election.

Cuban Revolution: Support Batista.

U-2: Same as Ike, though butterflies probably prevent it.

'60: JFK will be his opponent, and with the advantage of incumbency Nixon should be favored.

Might JFK sit out 1960 if he thinks Nixon - as an incumbent - is more likely to win?

If he sits out, maybe you get Nixon vs. Humphrey in 1960, a Humphrey defeat, then perhaps a Kennedy v. Rockefeller race in 1964 (assuming butterflies don't result in Rocky's defeat in the '58 NY governor's race).
 
Might JFK sit out 1960 if he thinks Nixon - as an incumbent - is more likely to win?

If he sits out, maybe you get Nixon vs. Humphrey in 1960, a Humphrey defeat, then perhaps a Kennedy v. Rockefeller race in 1964 (assuming butterflies don't result in Rocky's defeat in the '58 NY governor's race).

Perhaps, but JFK would have to give up his Senate seat in '64. Until LBJ ran for VP I don't think any state had an LBJ law that would allow you to seek two federal offices concurrently.

'64: Depends how fast the conservatives rise in the GOP. A faceoff between Rocky and Goldwater, or Goldwater and someone else (Reagan is almost certainly butterflied here) will come sometime before 1972.
 
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