Nixon Doesn't Go to China

What if Nixon put his anti-communist ideology before realpolitik and decides not to open up relations with China? Will another president be able to do this? Ford was a nobody, Carter won't risk being called a communist sympathiser, and Reagan was a super anti-communist!

How will Sino-Soviet relations be in such a world, better or worse?
 
Nixon had always planned to go to China, since 1964. 3 of his 4 1968 rivals: Humphrey, Kennedy, and Rockefeller had all pledged to recognize the PRC and eventually exchange embassies.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
How will Sino-Soviet relations be in such a world, better or worse?
They'll be much worse. Without a Sino-American entente, the Soviets will most likely go ahead with their plans for a nuclear war against China in 1969 (which was mostly presented by the US saying, "Nope. Nuh-uh. Even if he is a Red, Mao's our new buddy and you're not gonna touch him if you know what's good for you.")
 
Rogue: I think Nixon made it a pledge in 1960 as well.

If Nixon doesn't go to China, he fails to make perhaps his greatest diplomatic achievement.
Of course this raises the issue of outsourcing which will come up at some point in this thread.
 
Perhaps he goes to India instead

India, the world's largest democracy, and the United States, it's oldest, share the same ideals, the same goals, even if we may differ in the way in which we wish to achieve them. We recognise that our common interest is to stand against the stifling oppression of the USSR, the mad cult of personality that Mao has fostered. That great American, Mark Twain once said "India is, the cradle of the human race, the birthplace of human speech, the mother of history, the grandmother of legend, and the great-grandmother of tradition". I stand here today in ancient Delhi to honour that tradition, that legend, that history and to reaffirm among the community of nations that the United States recognises that India has been and will continue to be a beacon of freedom, a light for all Asia.
 
Re India: I don't think that's happening if Indira is prime minister. There's no viable alternative to her until the 1980s. Faeelin is correct: what does India have to offer? PRC under Mao was not beholden to anyone. Indira's India was a Soviet client state.
 

Typo

Banned
They'll be much worse. Without a Sino-American entente, the Soviets will most likely go ahead with their plans for a nuclear war against China in 1969 (which was mostly presented by the US saying, "Nope. Nuh-uh. Even if he is a Red, Mao's our new buddy and you're not gonna touch him if you know what's good for you.")
Nixon went to China in 1972
 
Yes, but the groundwork was laid much earlier. Nixon had visited Ceaucescu in 1969, who suggested using Yahya Khan's Pakistan as an intermediary. Nixon liked the idea and Nixon's support of Yahya in the '71 war helped create a strong personal relationship, and Pakistani envoys began discussing the idea with Zhou and some of his subordinates. In late 1971 the preparations were completed and the rest is history.
 
With China, Nixon realigned the Cold War on a Sino-American friendship (or pseudo-friendship) competing with the USSR. Before that, there had been predictions of a Soviet-US friendship forming in the midst of the Cold War to check the power of an up and coming Chinese superpower.

Without that dynamic of the OTL forming, the alternate one would be possible, or perhaps the US and USSR remain at each other's throats, but with a new player coming into the fold to make the Cold War more and more a three way affair.

I've always seen Reagan as a more extreme niche filler for the role Nixon originally filled which was cut short by Watergate, leading to the more radical substitute (Reagan) in the end. Taking that into account, and the fact that Reagan had become more and more a realist in dealing with foreign politics (as noted by his relations with Gorbi to end the Cold War) he could open up China on the premise of bringing them democracy which could only be brought by first bringing them onto the world stage. In his earlier period of Cold Warrior Reagan fighting the "Evil Emperor", he could also use relations with China to form the OTL relationship that Nixon did in order to get a further ally against the USSR. If this were done, however, I would see it as substituting for Reagan's relations with the USSR.
 
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Keenir

Banned
Re India: I don't think that's happening if Indira is prime minister. There's no viable alternative to her until the 1980s. Faeelin is correct: what does India have to offer? PRC under Mao was not beholden to anyone. Indira's India was a Soviet client state.

isn't that a good reason to go?

both to spit at the Soviets, and to open ties.


though not sure how Pakistan will take the visit.
 
China worked because both Nixon and Mao had a shared anti-Soviet interest, a stake in Vietnam, and a desire to turn the page on a quarter-century of acrimony. Indira Gandhi, like many of her fellow NAM leaders, was pro-Soviet in all but name. She does not want to open ties with the US: friendly relations with the Commonwealth yes, but not the US. Mao and Zhou wanted rapprochement with the US, Indira did not. Nixon did not either: all US presidents until Clinton were pro-Pakistani, and even under Bush and Obama the (IMO necessary and entirely desirable) transition from Pakistan to India has not yet been fully completed.

Let's use a liberal dose of handwavium and US-Indian rapprochement does work. What does that get the US? A regional military power for now, and for at least the next decade an economic basket case. Pakistan might be tempted to go pro-Soviet, especially with Bhutto as PM, or they go the Islamist, yet pro-American route under Zia as occurred IOTL.
 
I don't see why, alas. The rapproachment with China was designed to split the Communist Bloc and tamper the effect of a loss in Vietnam. What will India offer?

I know, I know- I was just being idealistic. Indira Gandhi was a...well I shan't say what I think of her.

However, given a POD where Morarji Desai manages to outflank Shastri in the competition to become Nehru's successor he might have turned India into a more credible rising power. But never mind- that's going off topic
 
Perhaps he goes to India instead

India, the world's largest democracy, and the United States, it's oldest, share the same ideals, the same goals, even if we may differ in the way in which we wish to achieve them. We recognise that our common interest is to stand against the stifling oppression of the USSR, the mad cult of personality that Mao has fostered. That great American, Mark Twain once said "India is, the cradle of the human race, the birthplace of human speech, the mother of history, the grandmother of legend, and the great-grandmother of tradition". I stand here today in ancient Delhi to honour that tradition, that legend, that history and to reaffirm among the community of nations that the United States recognises that India has been and will continue to be a beacon of freedom, a light for all Asia.

Is this based on some OTL speech?
 
One note is that OTL, Mao was dead two and a half years after the meet; so what I want to know is what happens in China if relations with the US aren't established in Mao's lifetime?

For example, I think Deng might have a harder time succeeding; or, another thought, what are the possibilities that, without the touted success of US relations, Mao finds himself dead sooner than OTL, with later autopsies finding a chemical substance in his system?*

*like Warfarin was found in Stalin
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Honestly it's better not to get too caught up with what was in Stalin's system when he died. The man became absolutely paranoid about doctors late in his reign and instead opted to visit veterinarians whose advice he often ignored and allowed him to basically pick and choose which medications and treatments he wanted to take, regardless of their benefits or lack thereof.
 
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