Nixon dies in 1974...could Ford still lose in '76?

VioletRiver

I presented a scenario like this some time ago in my Fringe Alternate Universe TL. Since I'm getting ready to post a revision of that TL, I thought I'd ask this question.

If Richard Nixon had chosen to forgo surgery for his phlebitis in October 1974, and if he had subsequently died due to complications of this illness, does Ford still have a chance of losing the 1976 election?

The precedent during the 20th century seems to be that the incumbent president wins the election following his deceased predecessor. Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson--they all follow the pattern. You have to go back to 1884 for the pattern not to hold true.

But assuming Carter (or a different Democratic candidate--a surviving RFK in the case of my TL) ran a better campaign, capitalizing on the economic woes of the mid-70s, and Ford still made his debate gaffe (which halted his momentum), could the Dem narrowly edge Ford out in the Electoral College?
 
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1940LaSalle

Could he still lose? Sure. That one POD could have any number of butterflies, one of which eliminates that 60 seconds or so on camera during a debate that effectively handed the election to Carter. Would he still lose? Difficult to say, given the massive uncertainties (don't forget that Carter was widely perceived as a waffler on many issues, for example), the incumbent effect as noted above, and the Watergate miasma hanging over US politics. I'll go out on a limb and say yes, but by a margin so narrow the election might not be called until Thursday, 4 November or even Friday, 5 November (IOTL, the networks concluded Carter was the winner at about 5:30 AM on 3 November).

After that, Nixon would remain almost as controversial as he did IOTL, softened perhaps by his death in office; Ford would be recalled as a good man who might have done good things given a chance at a full term. Carter...well, this presumes that an even-narrower victory wouldn't change events down the road; i.e., the bottom line is that he still got the presidency and would proceed as we knew him (probably not too bad an assumption). My sweeping guess is that we'd largely be where we are today.
 

Mark E.

Ford lost because of the statement he made in the debate with Carter where he said the Soviets did not control other Eastern European allies. Take away that statement, Ford wins. Keep it, he loses.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
To me (I guess I'm in a minority! :p) the biggest factor was that Ford was bruised up politically since he had to go through a long Republican primary season due to being challenged by Reagan for the Republican nomination.

And following the Democratic and Republican conventions that Summer, Ford was like 10+ points down, yes, even though such leads typically narrow.

It's like a basketball game where you ten points down with two minutes left. We can focus on one spectacular turnover, but it's a largely lost game and a situation where everything has to go right for you if you're going to still win.

So . . . Yes! he could still lose

Question: Was Ford largely correctly perceived by the public as a clumsy man, both physically in his gaffes, and more importantly, in his exercise of power as president?
 
Oppo

Oppo

It’s possible Ford doesn’t run without the need for national unity post-Watergate (even IOTL he considered returning).
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
1940LaSalle said:
. . . Difficult to say, given the massive uncertainties (don't forget that Carter was widely perceived as a waffler on many issues, for example), . . .
Click to expand...
And I think largely accurately perceived as a waffler on issues. Plus, Carter gave the interview to Playboy, which really was a mistake. To give the interview in the first place, and then in the interview to say describe Nixon and Johnson as lying. yes, he described Lyndon Johnson as lying and that didn't sit real well with a lot of fellow Democrats (plus, equating him, or at least using him in the same sentence as Nixon)

I know this is not as famous as "lust in my heart." Jimmy also used terms and phrases like "screwing" and "shacking up." Maybe he was trying to be earthy and down home. Well, at least back them people expected more of their president.

https://books.google.com/books?id=z...r enjoyed a seemingly insurmountable"&f=false

"When the 1976 campaign began, Carter enjoyed a seemingly insurmountable 62% to 29% advantage in the polls, but he soon saw his lead melt away."
Click to expand...
This is from a 2005 book, would love to find same thing in a 1976 news article.
 
Oppo

Oppo

Here’s some early polling from the primaries with candidates other than Ford and Reagan.

fivethirtyeight-0404-ep_gop76-blog480.png
 
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