Nintendo Wii the next Virtual Boy?

Many MANY people thought that when the Wii came out, it would fail miserably. For one thing, They had already tried Motion sensor technology with the "power glove" and that failed. When ever a game counsel tried radical new technology, they always failed, same deal with the Sega and the Sega CD and 32x add-ons. Plus the games where low quality in graphics, that many "hardcore gamers" hated. (It's never a good idea to alienate you're key demographic) The fact that Wii's still around shocks so many people. So what if it had been the massive failure everyone thought it would be?
 
Nintendo would probably be shunted to the handheld market. It's moving towards sort of a niche market as it is (party games + bizarre not-games like Wii Fit and some DS thing that's just a bunch of cooking recipes...). Take away the support for the Wii Fit, and I doubt they'd be able to rally in time for the next set of consoles. They might try to quickly put out some new, conventionalconsole after the Wii fails so badly, but it'd end up rushed and ultimately only the die hard fans would get it. Sort of like the Dreamcast, in a way.

The thing is, companies really can't recover from a horrible console crash, not the same way they can from a handheld. Consoles are sold at a loss, and rely on games sales to make up for it. With people not buying Wii games, and other Wiis lying in a warehouse, that's millions of unrecovered dollars going into manufacturing the consoles alone, let alone the complete lack of profit. Nintendo will just retreat back into the handheld market. You'll probably start seeing Mario on the XBox 720 or PS4, when they come out.

Edit: Also, I still think this is a slight possibility. Not a huge one, but I think we'll see Wii/accessory sales drop dramatically after XBox's Project Natal comes out. Natal basically does what the Wii does, but infinitely better. Full motion control, instead of just using a little Wiimote.
 
This is really funny because this topic reminds me of a song called "Whoa Nintendo" by the 14 Year Old Girls, a band that does songs about video games. "Whoa Nintendo" is from their 2004 album, Strategy Guide, and it's about the fall of Nintendo, which the band seemed to believe was inevitable. Obviously, this song has become one of those cases in which a depiction of the future at the time it was written has turned out incorrect and now seems like a work of AH.

Anyway, you can hear the song for free at its last.fm page.

And for your convenience, here are the lyrics...

14 Year Old Girls said:
Lately I have seen a trend,
Failure of the sacred N.
They gave us laughs and fun and stuff,
but now I say enough's enough.

Whoa Nintendo!
It's time for you to go!
Whoa Nintendo!
Time to reap what you sow!

Used to be filled with blind devotion,
'Til I had to cross that giant ocean.
Wait five years and what do you get?
A water cannon that plays like shit!

Nintendo should smell its doom,
It's gonna go third party soon.

Whoa Nintendo!
It's time for you to go!
Whoa Nintendo!
Your empire's about to blow!

Gameboy has kept you all afloat,
but PSP will rock your boat.
Frankly, I'll be glad to see,
the next Zelda on PS3!
 
The thing is, companies really can't recover from a horrible console crash, not the same way they can from a handheld. Consoles are sold at a loss, and rely on games sales to make up for it. With people not buying Wii games, and other Wiis lying in a warehouse, that's millions of unrecovered dollars going into manufacturing the consoles alone, let alone the complete lack of profit. Nintendo will just retreat back into the handheld market. You'll probably start seeing Mario on the XBox 720 or PS4, when they come out.
This is not Nintendo's business model, though. Nintendo does explicitly make a profit on every Wii sold, and it did on every GameCube as well. (not sure about the N64, though) This is in major contrast to Microsoft and Sony, which act as you describe.

I don't think the Wii can do that much worse than the GameCube even in a TL where it doesn't become a huge fad. Worst comes to worst, they can promote the Classic Controller to the status of a full controller and promote that.

If Project Natal for the 360 succeeds, then I don't see any hope for Nintendo.
Nintendo can never fail unless its first-party developers start to do badly, I think. Losing its #1 spot is a possibility, maybe, but that's different than "no hope".
 
If Project Natal for the 360 succeeds, then I don't see any hope for Nintendo.

Nah. The 360 and Wii are for entirely different markets. Natal definitely does have the potential to completely rip Nintendo a new asshole, but won't completely crush it. Nintendo has the potential to recover.

This is not Nintendo's business model, though. Nintendo does explicitly make a profit on every Wii sold, and it did on every GameCube as well. (not sure about the N64, though) This is in major contrast to Microsoft and Sony, which act as you describe.

You're right, my mistake. According to Forbes, Nintendo ultimately makes $6 off of ever Wii sold. Not a lot, but a hell of a lot better than having a $20 loss or whatever.

Nintendo can never fail unless its first-party developers start to do badly, I think. Losing its #1 spot is a possibility, maybe, but that's different than "no hope".

Why can't it fail? I doubt it'll just completely crash and burn over the course of a year or two, but I don't see it possibly recovering from, say, two crashed console generations in a row.
 
Edit: Also, I still think this is a slight possibility. Not a huge one, but I think we'll see Wii/accessory sales drop dramatically after XBox's Project Natal comes out. Natal basically does what the Wii does, but infinitely better. Full motion control, instead of just using a little Wiimote.
I don't think so. The Wii and 360 has a different consumer base. Also, I think its going to be hard to take away the notion that Wii=motion control from the majority of the populace. Even if the Wii sales go down dramatically, I think that the Wii would still win this generation console war simply because of its substantial lead in the gaming market.

But, getting back to the topic, I think that a virtual boy like failure of the Wii would destroy Nintendo. They were pretty much the losers in the last console war, and probably wouldn't be able to get back up after such a loss.
 
But, getting back to the topic, I think that a virtual boy like failure of the Wii would destroy Nintendo. They were pretty much the losers in the last console war, and probably wouldn't be able to get back up after such a loss.

Bleh. There wasn't really a loser in the last generation (not including the Dreamcast), just Sony being the big winner. XBox sold not much more than the Gamecube, but PS2 dramatically outperformed them both (by about 6 or 7 times). Anyway, I think Nintendo would've been able to try to put out some cheap console, which would ultimately fail, similar to Sega's situation.
 
Bleh. There wasn't really a loser in the last generation (not including the Dreamcast), just Sony being the big winner. XBox sold not much more than the Gamecube, but PS2 dramatically outperformed them both (by about 6 or 7 times). Anyway, I think Nintendo would've been able to try to put out some cheap console, which would ultimately fail, similar to Sega's situation.
Oops, forgot about the Dreamcast. But what I meant was that they sold the least amount of units and games compared to Microsoft and Sony.
 
Oops, forgot about the Dreamcast. But what I meant was that they sold the least amount of units and games compared to Microsoft and Sony.

Yeah, but not by much. PS2 did much better, but XBox didn't do a whole lot better. The ultimate breakdown was like

PS2: 140m
XBox: 24m
Gamecube: 21m
Dreamcast: 10m

I might be a little off, but not by much. So the Gamecube didn't really spell near financial doom or anything, especially if you consider what Imajin brought up earlier; Nintendo makes more money per console than either Sony or Microsoft.
 
They probably would have left the console market. Nintendo makes money off of each console sold, but if its base keeps shrinking, will it still be worth it to make your own system?

The hand held market would still be Nintendo's and they would fortify it so much it would be like a Gibraltar for video games.
 
The thing about the video game industry is that there are always at least 3 large players. Before Sony introduced the PlayStation original, SEGA was a much bigger player. If the Wii fails and takes Nintendo into the handheld niche with it, I could see another company throwing its hat in the game. Macintosh iConsole?

Someone might try to resurrect the Wii concept, but much better later on. For example, a better gun attachment and better motion sensors to have the onscreen character act exactly like the player. But if the Wii fails, this might be pushed back 10 years.
 
The thing about the video game industry is that there are always at least 3 large players. Before Sony introduced the PlayStation original, SEGA was a much bigger player. If the Wii fails and takes Nintendo into the handheld niche with it, I could see another company throwing its hat in the game. Macintosh iConsole?

I wouldn't necessarily say there has to be three or more. It's been more or less historically true, but I think it'd certainly be possible to see two console giants and then at most smaller niche competitors.

I'd really like to see a Valve console. I'd have to shoot someone if Apple made something, although I do see it as possible if one of the three current competitors drops off.

Someone might try to resurrect the Wii concept, but much better later on. For example, a better gun attachment and better motion sensors to have the onscreen character act exactly like the player. But if the Wii fails, this might be pushed back 10 years.

10 years? Nah. Look at the absolutely amazing technology we have with Project Natal. If Wii fails, a major competitor might not try it, but give it five years at the most, and you'll see a third party company produce a Natal-like accessory.
 
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