Ninoy Aquino Escapes Assassination

general_tiu

Banned
OK, there are many conspiracy theories about the death of Benigno "ninoy" Aquino, but what if he survived the assassination in 1983?
 
I was under the impression his assassination set off the "People Power" revolution that toppled Marcos.

If he survives, you might get a similar situation--the outrage will still be there.

If there is no assassination attempt to begin with, Marcos might hold on a bit longer.
 
It definitely wasn't a direct link. Ninoy was assassinated in 1983. The People Power revolution was in 1986, led by his widow Corazon (Cory). Certainly the grieving widow image was a big part of Cory's appeal, but Ninoy himself could have led the revolution.
Ultimately Marcos could hold on as long as the U.S. was prepared to underwrite him. Once the Reagan administration decided that Marcos was causing more problems than he was solving, he was toast. The (corrupt) election that led to the revolution was largely a gamble by Marcos, and to a lesser extent Reagan, to demonstrate continued legitimacy for the government.
To sum up, Marcos probably wasn't going to rule much longer than 1986 with or without the assassination. The big difference would be in his successor, OTL Cory Aquino, without the assassination probably Ninoy Aquino.

I'm curious though, what other conspiracy theories are surrounding the assassination? I've only heard of someone working for Marcos (which seems to be the general consensus) or NPA (the communist army, I think Marcos and a few of the more noxious American backers claimed this). I know Cory certainly blamed Marcos.
 
Marcos was in very poor physical (mentally sharp as usual) health at the time, he was dying of lupus. Likely the strains of office cause him to die by 1988, one year earlier than OTL. By that time, there would be a power struggle between Enrile and Imelda, which Enrile would easily win with the military's backing. Also, a council led by Imelda, PM Cesar Virata and Gen. Ver took care of much of his duties at the time.

Re assassination: Marcos might not have ordered it, but he definitely gave a yellow light. The military would not be insubordinate if he gave them a red light, as demonstrated when he refused free-fire orders on national TV IOTL. He warned Ninoy through Imelda that he would not allow him to return back in 1980. Remember, this was a man who allowed death squads to roam the provinces at will to assassinate his opponents and who bombed the Liberal midterm rally (the suspect was a disparido Constabulary officer) in 1971, causing a midterm wipeout in November.

Re election: Marcos might even win, because even according to NAMFREL, Cory beat him by only 800,000 votes, less than half a percentage point.
 
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