Nigerian reconquest of a successful Biafra

Had Biafra been successful in winning the Nigerian Civil War ,say the war ends in a ceasefire by 1970. Would Nigeria been able to reconquer it at some point or be able to gain concessions about the oil supply though war.
 
If Biafra were to win its (internationally recognised)independence it would stand a fair chance of staying independent because it would be relatively ethnically homogenuous for an African state and would have a lot of oil money to buy modern military equipment and military training. And Nigeria wouldn't.
 
I doubt Nigeria would give up the fight without at least an agreement on profit-sharing for oil. And they had the backing of the major players.

The only way I see this happening is if France supplies Biafra many more weapons than OTL, but that might provoke the Brits into meddling in their own sphere of influence.

This said, Nigeria without Biafra is broke, so they can't afford to wait. A continuation war would happen sooner than later, especially if independence hasn't yet been formally recognised by anyone of importance, otherwise things might turn messy.

Could they win? Perhaps if they feel abandoned by the west and turn to the Soviets, who have no need for oil but would love a nice proxy war as resource denial at the very least.
 
If Biafra was able to secure its independence from Nigeria, and if Nigeria--among other countries--recognized Biafra's independence, then I think there's little possibility of Nigeria being able to mount a revanchist war. Who will let it?
 
If Biafra was able to secure its independence from Nigeria, and if Nigeria--among other countries--recognized Biafra's independence, then I think there's little possibility of Nigeria being able to mount a revanchist war. Who will let it?


But who would have stepped in to stop it?
And let me ask again- if Biafra had estab-
listed its independence, what would have
been the chance Nigeria would just fly apart?
 
Well, if Biafran independence is recognized internationally, then countries which recognize Biafra as an independent state would intervene. France would be a very likely candidate, I'd think, especially given its interventionist tendencies in Africa generally and its support for Biafra particularly.
 
If Biafra was able to secure its independence from Nigeria, and if Nigeria--among other countries--recognized Biafra's independence, then I think there's little possibility of Nigeria being able to mount a revanchist war. Who will let it?

Probably the soviets, who where the Nigerians second largest backer. With the British taking a body blow in Africa from the fall out of the Biafra war Rhodesia and more importantly South African could very well end up driving foreign relations in English speaking Africa with predictable results. That opens up a lot of opportunities for the Soviet union and they would not be blind to those possibilities. Having a ready made base and client in the defeated Nigerian state would be a sensible jumping off point for soviet adventures on the continent. Part of propping up their new client would be ensuring that the right side won the ensuing civil war in Nigeria, meaning military assistance. After the civil war is over a resurgent Nigerian armed forces might very well think they have the moxie to take on an independent Biafra. It's possible that the Nigerian government would jump off without telling the soviets, in a move to force them to back the invasion much like what Cuba did in Angola.
 
After the civil war is over a resurgent Nigerian armed forces might very well think they have the moxie to take on an independent Biafra. It's possible that the Nigerian government would jump off without telling the soviets,
Would the Cubans join this war ?
 
Would the Cubans join this war ?

My own sense is that they wouldn't, beyond providing political support for the Nigerian's due to their stated cold war policy of bogging down the Americans in as many brush wars as possible. They would probably move on Angola, hoping to divide the western response to any invasion as well as keeping the South Africans out by presenting them with a problem closer to home. You would be more likely to see North Koreans working with the Nigerian military in any role beyond training, with Egyptian air force support being possible but time dependent, and Libyan support being probable, so long as the Nigerians were working with Chadian rebel factions to disrupt the French. That said, a lot would depend on the timing of the war and what was going on in the world at large during that time.
 
Well, if Biafran independence is recognized internationally, then countries which recognize Biafra as an independent state would intervene. France would be a very likely candidate, I'd think, especially given its interventionist tendencies in Africa generally and its support for Biafra particularly.


Very good point re France. My one question
then would be: would France pull out if its
involvement in Biafra got protracted & messy
(that is, cost what would be regarded as too
many French soldiers' lives)?
 
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If we are to take it as it went OTL, a Biafran victory likely means an end to a united Nigeria. Northern Nigeria threatened to leave in 1956 - when the UK first wanted to grant independence - to wrest more influence in the coming state. Western (really southwestern with Lagos) Nigeria had been playing with the idea for more than a decade, and may've set secession in motion by promising to leave with Eastern Nigeria/Biafra (the leadership reversed at the 11th hour). A loss to Biafra may be the catalyst for more secessions, and the Nigerian project is no more

But if Nigeria stays together, it's still in no shape to fight for a complete reconquest. Its biggest revenue source is gone, good luck trying to pay for another war. Nigeria's best chance to take back Biafra completely is via a Soviet promise to fully back and see through a reconquest. Deeper Soviet involvement would however rankle the culturally conservative North (a majority of the army's from there), and the new military head of government (the last one being deposed following the loss to Biafra) would be even more beholden to it. Also the Soviets aren't going to get that involved unless Nigeria "progresses towards socialism" - the same military banned the CPN (Communist Party of Nigeria) in the first coup. Cuban involvement in Angola was a direct result of its long-time links to a guerilla movement. It doesn't have the resources to fight all over the continent, so we can forget about it in Nigeria.

A united Nigeria can recover part of Biafra though. IOTL, Biafra's minorities (30-40% of the population) weren't too thrilled with secession, seeming like trading one set of masters for another. Almost all of the oil production was in minority lands. Biafra going full majoritarian = instant secession. The Nigerians come in then restorers of lawful government/facilitators of adequate representation to those minorities, provided that they don't want independence themselves. The rump Biafra becomes Swaziland 2.0, and Nigeria didn't even need to fight a war. If the minorities do want their own state, it could easily be under Nigerian or British "protection". Oil interests could even facilitate intervention a la Katanga.

As mentioned before, mainly France can come to Biafra's aid. With Biafra's non-oil infrastructure bombed out, the French would be more than happy to make money off of reconstruction. France at this point would not only be aiding an ally, but also protecting French investments. Biafra's other new allies, though, are largely of no help. Rhodesia, with its own war of survival, is ruled out. The same for the Portuguese and the Spanish (who left the region in 1968). South Africa's "win African friends" initiative wasn't serious IOTL, a Biafran victory won't change that by much. Place the Nigeria-Biafra war 5-10 years later, when the apartheid regime was willing to do anything for its survival, and you may see heavier South African involvement.

In short:
Disintegrated Nigeria - no chance
United Nigeria - no chance for a complete reconquest, partial reintegration possible.
 
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