All, Still reading Montefiore's 'The Romanovs'.
Rasputin's influence was indeed grating on the rest of the 'family' and by extension the nobility and the country.
Apparently, there was a move to unseat 'Nicky' by capturing the Royal train, crown Alexei and get rid of the empress Alexandra.
A variation would have been to crown Nikolasha.
Apparently, general Alexeev and prince Lvov were in on the coup. And so were the British via John Scale, Rayner et al.
Scenario 1: Alexei
How long would he have been living? one bump against a table and he would bleed to death. Alexei trying to be at the front would not go well.
What would he have changed? and would he have achieved it?
Separate peace with Germany in January 1917 would have been really bad for the Entente.
Scenario 2: Nikolasha
He was surely interested in carrying on with the war. and with the Brusilov offensive having gone well, he might have forced Austria out much earlier.
If Austria is out by January 1917, it becomes very difficult for Germany to do both Italy and Galicia.
What could have been the most likely scenario:
Separate peace under Alexei?
Russian victory against Austria and a real force to be reckoned with under Nikolasha?
…. and what would happen to WWI?
Ivan