Nicholas II-st popularity at front on 1st of March

How many supporters did he have at that moment, actually?

Two suspicious lines:

After his OTL abdication on 2nd in Pskov, his next move was to return to Mogilev headquarters to say goodbye to his army. Large numbers of soldiers expressed support for him. Provisional Government was alarmed, and when Nicholas returned to his family in Tsarskoye Selo, he was put under house arrest.

The Provisional Committee of State Duma was formed on 27th of February. But on the same day, Petrograd Soviet was also formed. And the Soviet did not give full support to Duma - starting with Order No 1 on 1st of March, telling the soldiers to obey Provisional Committee only when not contradicted by Soviet, and deciding not to join Duma.

When the representatives of Provisional Committee like Rodzyanko went to Pskov to negotiate with army and Nicholas for abdication, they tried to conceal the situation in Petersburg and leave the impression that the Duma was in complete control. They succeeded.

Now the PoD: Nicholas delays his abdication, to gather more information about the opinions of soldiers in Pskov and situation in Petersburg. Initially from 2nd to 3rd.

And then the bluff of Rodzyanko is exposed. Petersburg has, not quiet and legitimate parliamentary government, but double power of Duma and the Soviet of mutinous soldiers.

A bunch of officers in Pskov offer their support to Nicholas on 2nd, and tell their soldiers on the front that the Petersburg garrison, being lazy cowards safe in the rear while their brethren died at front, had mutinied and that neither Soviet nor Provisional Committee had the authority to keep order in Petersburg.

What will happen?

The soldiers defect to revolution anyway, and Nicholas abdicates on 3rd?

A substantial number of men do march on Petersburg, but not nearly enough, resulting in a bloody defeat for Nicholas?

Or enough of the frontline units stay loyal to Nicholas, and the February Revolution is suppressed?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Exactly, no idea.
However, delaying his abdication? It won't save him, nor his government. He had destroyed what little loyalty in the Romanov dynasty and the monarchy the people of Russia had left. People were hungry, barefoot, blamed him for lenghthening the war and knew he was the one in charge on the front, therefore the incompetence of the generals, ultimately, was his.

The people back in the cities were also starving, angry, tired. There was no way whatsoever the people of Russia were going to humor the autocrat of all Russias on the throne without real reforms, something which he of all people was not going to offer.

Any delay he puts in abdicating will just make him less desired, and it will make his situation worse.
 
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