Suppose in 1902 the lobbying for a Panamanian canal fails and Congress chooses Nicaragua instead. The president of Nicaragua at this time was Jose Santos Zelaya Lopez, an energetic and talented man with dreams of reuniting all of Central America into one nation. From the little I know about him, it seems he was well regarded by Teddy Roosevelt for his his efforts to modernize Nicaragua and his concessions to US business interests. With a canal through Nicaragua, I imagine that both political and business interests in the US would want to support his regime as his reasonably non-corrupt, efficient administration would promote the internal stability needed to safeguard canal operations.
With the good will of Washington and extra revenue from canal duties, Zelaya is now free to pursue his dream of Central American reunification. What means is he likely to use in this campaign? Will he use force, or will he try to buy off local elites and undermine his neighbors from within? Would US business interests in the region prefer to deal with several small, unstable, corrupt governments in Central America, or could Zelaya buy them to his side with ever more lucrative concessions in Nicaragua and his track record of competent administration and stability. Roosevelt certainly had a contentious relationship with large US conglomerates. Would he be willing to use gunboat diplomacy to protect their interests against someone whom he personally respected and who, more importantly, had allowed the construction of one of the most important supports of US power projection? I look forward to hearing from experts on the subject.