WI the Dutch never settles the Hudson estuary (and so no New Netherlands exists)? Would the Pilgrims extend their domain further to the south or a more Mid-Atlantic colony would appear in the OTL New York - New Jersey area?
WI the Dutch never settles the Hudson estuary (and so no New Netherlands exists)?
Unless you improve Jones', Coppin's, and Clarke's navigation skills, improve the supply situation, or moderate the weather during the months after landfall, the Pilgrims are still going to sight Cape Cod, spend several weeks putzing around while looting burial mounds, only to settle at Plymouth. The problem here is if somehow the navigation were better, supplies more available (perhaps Speedwell not being sabotaged), or the weather better the Pilgrims will sail to Jamestown after making landfall at Cape Cod. Jamestown was their actual destination. If they can reach the Hudson from the Cape, they can reach Jamestown.Would the Pilgrims extend their domain further to the south...
If, for some reason, no one has settled the mouth of the Hudson by ~1630, parts of the Winthrop Fleet may settle there. Given the location, it's certain that Manhattan/Staten Island will be settled during the 1620-1640 Great Migration....or a more Mid-Atlantic colony would appear in the OTL New York - New Jersey area?
Some other colonial power will. The harbor, large islands, and access to the interior the Hudson river provides are just too advantageous. Other than the Dutch, you're looking at the English or, much less plausibly, the Swedes.
Unless you improve Jones', Coppin's, and Clarke's navigation skills, improve the supply situation, or moderate the weather during the months after landfall, the Pilgrims are still going to sight Cape Cod, spend several weeks putzing around while looting burial mounds, only to settle at Plymouth. The problem here is if somehow the navigation were better, supplies more available (perhaps Speedwell not being sabotaged), or the weather better the Pilgrims will sail to Jamestown after making landfall at Cape Cod. Jamestown was their actual destination. If they can reach the Hudson from the Cape, they can reach Jamestown.
If, for some reason, no one has settled the mouth of the Hudson by ~1630, parts of the Winthrop Fleet may settle there. Given the location, it's certain that Manhattan/Staten Island will be settled during the 1620-1640 Great Migration.
Again, if the Dutch are out of the picture, only the English are "doing" settler colonies at this time and in the area in question. France, while setting up trade entrepots, isn't allowing tens of thousands to migrate, Spain is doing little besides patrolling and then very rarely north of Hatteras, Portugal is entirely absent, and Sweden's tiny effort will be easily gobbled up.
If the English are the firsts to arrive and stay in the Hudson - let's say something similar to your idea of Manhattan settlement during 1620 - 1640 what would be the most likely political and economic evolution of the "New York" colony? More like the New England, more like the Southern colonies or something totally different from both?
There's always the possibility that if the Hudson Valley is vacant, Lord Calvert could find it an attractive place for his Catholic colony. Baltimore on the Hudson. In which case this TL could be looking at a Maryland the size of Virginia or larger and possibly early mass Irish Catholic immigration to the New World---as well as tobacco plantation agriculture in Long Island, what is IOTL New Jersey and Westchester and Rockland and Orange Counties and attendant slavery.
Also, the butterfly that causes the Hudson River not to be settled by the Dutch could be Henry Hudson not being set adrift by his crew, but his ship being iced in for one winter on the eastern shore of Hudson's Bay, trading with the Cree and coming back to the Netherlands with a ship loaded with pelts the way the Hudson's Bay Company would, 60 years later IOTL. It would make for a very interesting TL indeed if the Dutch put their main North American effort into trading around Hudson's Bay and west into what would be IOTL the Nelson-Saskatchewan and Churchill Basins. Higher profits, no fur wars with the French and perhaps eventually a Northwest Passage by river to the Pacific Coast.
Very interesting...full slavery so far to the north would completely alter the balance of power in the Independence process...maybe two nations would be formed: New England and "South of the Hudson until Georgia"...