"New York City is f****d."

[Erin Go Bragh]

Saturday, October 12, 2000. 1:30 AM EDT.

Jason Perrine was the NWS Chief for the Northeast Region. This night he was in the Upton, NY NWS office.

He had a stack of papers on his desk, all dealing with the same thing. The gun they'd had to their heads for the last two weeks, Hurricane Keith. A large Category 4 storm, with winds of 150 mph and hurricane-force winds stretching out 125 miles from its center, it had developed off the coast of Africa and sped northwest. For a while, it seemed that the Southeast coast of the US was going to see the worst hurricane in many years.

However, when the storm was 600 miles east of Key West, the prevailing weather patterns started to pull it northward. It had been moving north ever since, accelerating to a forward speed of 40 MPH to it's current position, 250 miles southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey, with unusually warm Atlantic waters enabling it to hold its strength. Now all forecasts said that a front in the North Atlantic was about to draw it hard northeastward and out to sea, mercifully...what could have been a disaster would just be a lot of rain and some tropical storm force gusts. Just in the nick of time, Jason thought. About time for Melissa to come in with the 1:30 report on the North Atlantic...

Just as he was thinking that, Melissa Daniels, his assistant, walked in with two sheets of paper off the printer. Her face white. Before he could ask her what was wrong, she stuttered out the words...

"Front 6-L. It's dro...dropping. Fast."

She gave him the papers. His face went white as he read the information his assistant had summed up. Indeed 6-L was dropping, and fast. Running to the main computer, he sat down at the station and quickly input the new information. One minute later, he saw the new forecast. Now it was his turn to have his face turn white. Instead of going out to sea, Hurricane Keith was heading northwest at 40 MPH. In just six hours, it was going to make landfall just south of Brick, New Jersey.

"Melissa, get me the Director on the phone. Stat. Then get me FEMA, Mayor Giuliani, and Governor Whitman. In that order. And I'm going to put out a Condition Red for New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island for Keith the moment I get off the phone with them."

As he lifted the phone, he thought of his home, in New York City's Greenwich Village. Unlikely he'd ever live there again...as the Director picked up the phone, the thought that was going through Jason's head was..."New York City is f****d."

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

What an absolute disaster for NYC in that year.

 

[Nivek]

Butterflies for 2000?

 

[Matt]

In just six hours, it was going to make landfall just south of Brick, New Jersey.

Well fuck me.

 

[dmg86]

At least it not going as fast as a hurricane did in 1938. That one was going as fast as 70.

 

[Matt]

@FickleCrossroad Would the state of meteorological sciences not be able to see such a turn in 2000?

 

[RightHoJeeves]

I recall a documentary of some sort that mentioned there's a very tall building in Manhattan that might collapse if hit with a very strong storm such as a hurricane. Something about the structure snapping because of how the metal frame is installed. Wish I could think of the name.

 

[sloreck]

The landfall site makes NYC getting the worst of the winds...and if there is a high tide at the same time...

 

[Kitiem3000]

Haven't seen a good hurricane time-line since Orange Tempest. Hurricanes are always a fun read.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

I recall a documentary of some sort that mentioned there's a very tall building in Manhattan that might collapse if hit with a very strong storm such as a hurricane. Something about the structure snapping because of how the metal frame is installed. Wish I could think of the name.

The Citibank Building, but they discovered/reinforced it in 1977.

 

[Not James Stockdale]

Speaking as a meteorologist, a better storm track might be something that parallels Florence's track to a point roughly 600 miles ESE of Wilmington before turning north. There would be at least 48 hours (probably 72 hours) of warning and forward speed would be unlikely to exceed 25 mph. Forward speeds of 40 mph are only seen in the North Atlantic as storms head towards Europe. Additionally, a fast-moving storm would have less surge and rainfall than a slower storm. Charley (2004) for example crossed the Florida peninsula in 8 hours and didn't drop more than 6" of rain. Also, even for a fast-moving storm like this, you would already be getting significant effects just 240 miles from the center.

 

[Matt]

Okay so this has grabbed my attention since you've decided to have landfall occur at my hometown seemingly at random. So I've already did some digging.

Saturday, October 12, 2000. 1:30 AM EDT.

I decided to try and see where my friends and family would have been on that date. I personally was still 2 weeks away from graduating from MCRD Parris Island. My folks would almost certainly still be at home. Since my sister is away from school, but it is near her birthday I wanted to check to see if she would be at Rowan University or in Brick. Dr. Internet told me that the 12th was actually a Thursday. Which is great, cause my sister wouldn't be home and even better cause her birthday would be the following weekend, so she'd be unlike be home that Friday.

October 12th is also the day of the USS Cole bombing coincidentally.

Jason Perrine was the NWS Chief for the Northeast Region. This night he was in the Upton, NY NWS office.

Wouldn't this forecasting be handled by the National Hurricane Center?

Instead of going out to sea, Hurricane Keith was heading northwest at 40 MPH. In just six hours, it was going to make landfall just south of Brick, New Jersey.

This is why I paged our resident weather expert. I have a hard time believing that even in the year 2000 that there'd be such a late game change of direction without the NWS or NHC noticing or predicting something. I also think it's largely immaterial to the long term effects of your story. First, it would be incredibly challenging to evacuate NYC even under ideal circumstances. Second, this is years before Katrina and people would be much likely to take the notices and evacuations seriously.

However, even 250 miles from Atlantic City with a storm heading north puts Long Island (270 miles), Rhode Island (300 miles), and Martha's Vineyard (295 miles) at risk so the NHC would be monitoring the storm very closely. If the storm's hurricane strength wind field extends 125 miles, then it is certainly possible that tropical force winds are already hitting the Jersey Shore, NYC, and Long Island. It likely that the entire coastal region from Cape May to Cape Cod is already under at least a tropical storm warning.

Doing some quick triangulation puts 250 miles SE of Atlantic City near the Knauss Seamount. Due North from that point brings on Keith's originally predicted course would bring the storm ashore at roughly Newport, Rhode Island. That is a distance of only 330 miles, which a storm moving at 40 miles per hour would cover in 8 hours and 15 minutes. Newport, RI is only 152 miles away from NYC, so it's actually like that NYC is under a hurricane warning if the hurricane strength wind field is 125 miles wide since a slight wobble westerly would bring hurricane winds to the City.

 

[Simon]

I recall a documentary of some sort that mentioned there's a very tall building in Manhattan that might collapse if hit with a very strong storm such as a hurricane. Something about the structure snapping because of how the metal frame is installed. Wish I could think of the name.

Are you thinking of the Citicorp Center? That one was discovered and fixed in the late 1970s.

 

[RightHoJeeves]

Are you thinking of the Citicorp Center? That one was discovered and fixed in the mid-1970s.

I was, yes. I appear to have been mixing up when the problem was corrected versus when the incident was publicly reported, which was two decades later. It was a documentary on engineering buildings to survive natural disasters.

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

The landfall site makes NYC getting the worst of the winds...and if there is a high tide at the same time...

Gee, I wonder if I have something like that in mind...

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

Speaking as a meteorologist, a better storm track might be something that parallels Florence's track to a point roughly 600 miles ESE of Wilmington before turning north. There would be at least 48 hours (probably 72 hours) of warning and forward speed would be unlikely to exceed 25 mph. Forward speeds of 40 mph are only seen in the North Atlantic as storms head towards Europe. Additionally, a fast-moving storm would have less surge and rainfall than a slower storm. Charley (2004) for example crossed the Florida peninsula in 8 hours and didn't drop more than 6" of rain. Also, even for a fast-moving storm like this, you would already be getting significant effects just 240 miles from the center.

Thanks for the advice. I'm definitely not a meterologist. Used to live on Long Island and this is the metro area's worst case scenario. I'm not going to bust my butt over every last tiny detail...hope you guys won't either. I wanted to create a scenario that would explore the worst case for NYC and the metro area and the possible consequences.

 

[Matt]

Thanks for the advice. I'm definitely not a meterologist. Used to live on Long Island and this is the metro area's worst case scenario. I'm not going to bust my butt over every last tiny detail...hope you guys won't either. I wanted to create a scenario that would explore the worst case for NYC and the metro area and the possible consequences.

Like I said, you already got my attention by deciding Brick is Killed. But covering the little things, such as they are, always helps with making a tighter story.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

@FickleCrossroad Would the state of meteorological sciences not be able to see such a turn in 2000?

More like there's no way this is plausible.

 

[fscott]

I recall a documentary of some sort that mentioned there's a very tall building in Manhattan that might collapse if hit with a very strong storm such as a hurricane. Something about the structure snapping because of how the metal frame is installed. Wish I could think of the name.

Might be the Citibank building? That they had to do some extreme external structural strengthening the keep even the lowest hurricane from Bring It Down. I'm going from memory on this but I think it's this correct

 

[Gudestein]

This is a thrilling start. Just slow the forward speed and say that even as the weather worsened over XX Beach, it had look like the Storm would fozzle out to the north east. Then.... we have 10 hours....
A little adaptation is not going to hurt.