New Year's Eve 2012 : Spain Seizes Gibraltar

New Year's Eve 2012 : Spain Seizes Gibraltar

Instead of the current levels of low level intimidation what if the Spanish government anticipated the events of 2013 and just siezed Gibraltar?

Note that Gibraltar is defended currently by one light infantry battalion and usually there are no significant naval assets.

New Year's Eve 2012 9pm
A large number of foreign visitors comes over the border as revelers for New Year. They cause enough trouble to occupy the police and the defense force.
From the container ship in the port a large detachment of men in plain clothes, all ex-vets, all armed, emerges to take the communication and official locations in the main town.

Various other 'civilian volunteer' landings take place at quiet dock areas around the island like Rosia Steps. The paramilitaries, soon to be described as 'Spanish Patriots', close the airport and open the border.

New Year's Eve 2012 11pm
The only fighting now is at the high reaches of the rock and within the rock itself.
The regular Spanish army crosses the border to 'restore order'

Jan 1st 2013 Spain is awaiting the world wide reaction
 
New Year's Eve 2012 : Spain Seizes Gibraltar

Instead of the current levels of low level intimidation what if the Spanish government anticipated the events of 2013 and just siezed Gibraltar?

Note that Gibraltar is defended currently by one light infantry battalion and usually there are no significant naval assets.

New Year's Eve 2012 9pm
A large number of foreign visitors comes over the border as revelers for New Year. They cause enough trouble to occupy the police and the defense force.
From the container ship in the port a large detachment of men in plain clothes, all ex-vets, all armed, emerges to take the communication and official locations in the main town.

Various other 'civilian volunteer' landings take place at quiet dock areas around the island like Rosia Steps. The paramilitaries, soon to be described as 'Spanish Patriots', close the airport and open the border.

New Year's Eve 2012 11pm
The only fighting now is at the high reaches of the rock and within the rock itself.
The regular Spanish army crosses the border to 'restore order'

Jan 1st 2013 Spain is awaiting the world wide reaction

I'm guessing given the weakness in the Spanish economy OTL, they would face a massive rise in Bond yields pricing them out of the Bond market with hours, days at the most. The ECB walks away as the EU would be at best paralysed, at worse would fracture with such an event.

In the meantime the UK would react and as far as I remember even with the cuts the UK forces match or out number the Spanish military in high end equipment.
 
No. Just no. I am sorry to interrupt the imperial circlejerk, but this is almost offensive. We aren't mindless drones obsessed with that goddamn rock, just like, believe it or not, the average Argentine's life doesn't revolve around planning to invade the Falklands again.

You may as well ask for Britain to seize the Republic of Ireland back just because.
 

Garrison

Donor
No. Just no. I am sorry to interrupt the imperial circlejerk, but this is almost offensive. We aren't mindless drones obsessed with that goddamn rock, just like, believe it or not, the average Argentine's life doesn't revolve around planning to invade the Falklands again.

You may as well ask for Britain to seize the Republic of Ireland back just because.

Yeah if you someone is going to do a thread like this they really need to have a clear POD to explain when and how the Spanish government went collectively insane...
 
The Spanish Goverment would be vilivied world wide as vidio of British citizens being murdered was broadcast world wide live on the internet. This an Act Of War. Aggresion against a freindly state. Europe would have to back the British Goverment, all Spanish forces would have to stand down and had over to British forces arriving by sea.
 
HM Government would probably have to ask permission from Europe to even fart in the general direction of Gibraltar. Europe has a choice support the good European Spanish who just happen to be in hock to Europe for a gazillion € or support the narky troublemaking Brits who are probably on the way out of the Union in the next 10 years.
 
Really, at least you guys could try and have a military coup in Spain beforehand or something.
And even then, no "surprise dictatorship" regime is going to commit suicide right off the bat by invading Gibraltar...
-only if the US supported the invasion of Gibraltar...
-or if the UK was being invaded by Germany and there was a civil war among the English...
-or if Spain gets also Alsace-Lorraine. And a warm water port.... no wait, we have plenty of those, so a cold water port!

Did anyone else notice the lightbulbs going off over the heads of the British forum members?
Yeah, shame on Dr. Strangelove, for giving the English ideas :D
 
Really, at least you guys could try and have a military coup in Spain beforehand or something.
And even then, no "surprise dictatorship" regime is going to commit suicide right off the bat by invading Gibraltar...
-only if the US supported the invasion of Gibraltar...
-or if the UK was being invaded by Germany and there was a civil war among the English...
-or if Spain gets also Alsace-Lorraine. And a warm water port.... no wait, we have plenty of those, so a cold water port!


Yeah, shame on Dr. Strangelove, for giving the English ideas :D

This is just the latest variation on the long and storied british tradition of Invasion Literature. It's not Britain if brown people from across the channel isn't menacingly looking at this hallowed island and menacing with turning us into their papist, Roman Law ways! Just look at how in only 10 posts spaniards have already been dehumanized into bloodthirsty monsters who not only invade Gibraltar for no reason whatsoever but are also murdering british citizens for the lulz. Nevermind that Spain and Britain are allies and trading partners with plenty of common interests and aims: Invasion Literature doesn't work if the enemy is relatable because the story loses interest then, they have to be vile, inhuman savages in order for the reader to get his kicks. It's essentially jingoistic porn, and porn would be horrible if we started asking the characters' deepest motivations or if they became real, fleshed-out people. I don't want to ask myself why that schoolgirl is so eager to exchange blowjobs for better grades, and I don't want to ask myself why those walking stereotypes are menacing the Empire either.

That's also why there are so many Falklands threads in Chat, invariably opened by a british member: They had a real world Invasion Novel in 1982, and they want to get that high again. I suspect that if Spain ever attacks Gibraltar, we will end finding out that it was all staged by the Daily Mail to increase circulation.
 
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That's also why there are so many Falklands threads in Chat, invariably opened by a british member: They had a real world Invasion Novel in 1982, and they want to get that high again. I suspect that if Spain ever attacks Gibraltar, we will end finding out that it was all staged by the Daily Mail to increase circulation.

Bond movie plot? Cool :cool:

But yes, the sheer level of "Argentina/Spain invades the poor, hapless Britons and the mighty Britain returns to rule the waves" number of threads can be infuriating, especially when its based on imaginary, nonsensical arguments like "Spanish govt does it to hide its bad economic management" based on stereotypes or a common template that doesn't fit to any real world nation.
 
That is the problem with scenarios like this, nearly all of them have little to do with the viability of the claim over the disputed territory and everything to do with the internal politics of the nations involved. Spain would/is only kicking up a fuss over Gibralter because it appeals to the Spanish equivelent of the Daily Mail reader! It also acts as a very good diversion from the complete SNAFU the Spanish politicos have created at home!!!
 
I should probably point out that from my experience of the place (2 weeks in Devil's Tower Camp a few summers ago) the Gibraltar Regiment would probably all be out on the town on New Year's Eve, so if the Spanish seized the armoury at DTC there wouldn't even be fighting on top of/inside the rock.

For all that the premise is ridiculous, the invasion plan is a bit silly too - the only places you have to grab are DTC and Europa Point ranges. Once you do, any chance of resistance is gone and you're just sending police in to restore order (well, unless you count the two sentries and the cannon outside government house). DTC is about 100m from the Spanish border with nothing between the two but a runway, while Europa Point is about as far as Gibraltar gets from any place the landings were taking place on.
 
This is just the latest variation on the long and storied british tradition of Invasion Literature. It's not Britain if brown people from across the channel isn't menacingly looking at this hallowed island and menacing with turning us into their papist, Roman Law ways! Just look at how in only 10 posts spaniards have already been dehumanized into bloodthirsty monsters who not only invade Gibraltar for no reason whatsoever but are also murdering british citizens for the lulz. Nevermind that Spain and Britain are allies and trading partners with plenty of common interests and aims: Invasion Literature doesn't work if the enemy is relatable because the story loses interest then, they have to be vile, inhuman savages in order for the reader to get his kicks. It's essentially jingoistic porn, and porn would be horrible if we started asking the characters' deepest motivations or if they became real, fleshed-out people. I don't want to ask myself why that schoolgirl is so eager to exchange blowjobs for better grades, and I don't want to ask myself why those walking stereotypes are menacing the Empire either.

That's also why there are so many Falklands threads in Chat, invariably opened by a british member: They had a real world Invasion Novel in 1982, and they want to get that high again. I suspect that if Spain ever attacks Gibraltar, we will end finding out that it was all staged by the Daily Mail to increase circulation.

Can I just say that this line of criticism comes across as somewhat odd from a guy who has a link to a (rather good, to be fair) TL he wrote about a Spanish-Morrocan war fought over Ceuta and Melilla in his sig box?

That said - yes, the POD is improbable. But this is AH-com - as far as I'm aware there's nothing in the rules requiring us to stick to maximum probability PODs. In this particular case, the Spanish government has been behaving aggressively towards Gibraltar recently (yes, I know - you'll claim it's Gibraltar bullying Spain, or somesuch). Asking what would happen if this got dialled up to eleven for some reason isn't that unreasonable - though I tend to agree with the criticism that some more thought needs to go into why Spain would suddenly do this, and how they could do it without alerting the British authorities.

And I'm old enough to remember the Falklands War, and have friends who were veterans of and traumatised by that conflict. I find your dismissal of it as an "invasion novel" to be more offensive than anything the OP said.
 
warming up HMS f***ing Invincible and going after the darkies

Thanks for the racisim accusation - it has really made my day.

I guess the Daily Mail has invented all the news coming out of Gibraltar this year? The border wrangles? The recent naval incursion?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...urvey-ship-into-gibraltar-waters-8949931.html

You'll note that isn't the Daily Mail.

And ironically last time I commented on this subject it was to suggest the idea of Gibraltar's territorial waters were a matter of debate so I'm hardly wanking one side over the other and, incidently, as I keep saying I'VE LIVED THERE. I'm not suggesting a re-fight of the Falklands I'm suggesting what is possible, If Spain were sufficiently motivated and the UK were sufficiently negligent Gibraltar could change hands overnight with (initially) minimal loss of life - forcing a diplomatic solution.

I never suggested warming up HMS f***ing Invincible and going after the darkies

This time I think I will genuinely delete my account on this forum, I really am sick of some of the judgemental crap on here and I don't want to turn into one of the long term inmates. I've better things to do.
 
Bond movie plot? Cool :cool:

But yes, the sheer level of "Argentina/Spain invades the poor, hapless Britons and the mighty Britain returns to rule the waves" number of threads can be infuriating, especially when its based on imaginary, nonsensical arguments like "Spanish govt does it to hide its bad economic management" based on stereotypes or a common template that doesn't fit to any real world nation.

Silly Nanwe, only Britain is allowed to have legitimate grievances, everyone else is only doing it for dastardly motives. Just look at the posts below yours.

That is the problem with scenarios like this, nearly all of them have little to do with the viability of the claim over the disputed territory and everything to do with the internal politics of the nations involved. Spain would/is only kicking up a fuss over Gibralter because it appeals to the Spanish equivelent of the Daily Mail reader! It also acts as a very good diversion from the complete SNAFU the Spanish politicos have created at home!!!

The spanish equivalente of the Daily Mail reader, that really made my day :D

FYI, it is Britain who loves making a mountain out of every molehill related to Gibraltar, fantasizing with an invasion every time Spain so much of complains about anything related to the place. Spanish newspapers forgot about in August: not a week passes by in british papers without a couple of mentions of the matter. It is the british public who gets off on jingoism: spaniards are very fed up with the concept after 40 years of fascist dictature, and you are incredibly ignorant of spanish society if you think its patriotism works in an analogous way to british patriotism.


Can I just say that this line of criticism comes across as somewhat odd from a guy who has a link to a (rather good, to be fair) TL he wrote about a Spanish-Morrocan war fought over Ceuta and Melilla in his sig box?
Ha, good catch. :D

I actually wrote that as both an homage and a deconstruction. I wrote it as an implausible spainwank technothriller because I found the idea of contemporary Spain being in the winning side of a military porn story hilarious. Maybe you can read it straight, but to a spanish reader the whole story is vaguely comic. And then there are the small touches that you wouldn't find in technothrillers, such as Spain actually shooting first and being the agressor, the US being bumbling, ineffective morons when they would have no realistic reason to be so, or the only relatable character being one of the "bad guys".

In this particular case, the Spanish government has been behaving aggressively towards Gibraltar recently (yes, I know - you'll claim it's Gibraltar bullying Spain, or somesuch).

Yes, like I said: only Britain is allowed to have grievances. Everyone else does it out of dastardly motives or to hide their incompetence. It has to be like the Falklands again, even down to the bad guys' motivations, right? Because it is impossible Gibraltar could possibly ever do anything that would bother Spain.

Asking what would happen if this got dialled up to eleven for some reason isn't that unreasonable - though I tend to agree with the criticism that some more thought needs to go into why Spain would suddenly do this, and how they could do it without alerting the British authorities.
Bullshit. The way the OP and some of the following posts were worded is downright offensive. It takes an entire country (a friendly country, at it) and dehumanizes it: Oh, Spain doesn't need any sort of reason to start attacking Gibraltar and murdering its inhabitants. It's sort of their thing, you know. You would never see similar threads about Canada and St Pierre, or Brazil and French Guiana, or France and the Anglo Norman islands. Even the Falklands Mk II threads give Argentina a motive with all the newfound oil.

The only vaguely plausible motivation Spain would have to do such a thing would be if Gibraltar did some unspeakably retarded thing, such as collaborating with Morocco in case of Morocco stirring up conflict, laundering terrorist money, or protecting ETA terrorists or shooting at spanish ships in the middle of the bay. And in that case the british government would either take measures to stop Gibraltar from pulling that crap again, or swallow all its talk about self-determination (it wouldn't be the first time) before blood got to the river.

And I'm old enough to remember the Falklands War, and have friends who were veterans of and traumatised by that conflict. I find your dismissal of it as an "invasion novel" to be more offensive than anything the OP said.

Which is why I doubt very much any of your friends would view it in such an infantile way indeed.

Those who aren't old enough to remember, or who weren't there are much more likely to view the entire thing as something not entirely real. As entertainment.
 
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