New World trades plagues with the Old World?

After no luck with the Search function here, I’m posting a general question for everyone: Does anyone recall a TL revolving around or at least incidental to the introduction of new diseases from Native Americans to Europeans, on a scale approximating that of the damage caused by European disease in the Americas?

Some estimates claim that European diseases killed up to 95 percent of the native populations in the first 100 years or so of contact. I’ve had a scenario running around in my head where the Indians give as good as they get, involving a two-way disease trade between Europeans and indigenous Americans. I know that most of our now-common diseases came from domesticated animals, but a few, like yellow fever IIRC, came from incidental contact with wild species. (Monkeys in the case of yellow fever.) So I’m envisioning one or more endemic diseases among the native population which Europeans have no immunity to, and which affects Eurasia on a similar scale as, say, smallpox and measles did in the Americas.

Has such a timeline ever been explored here? What would be the impact of a mystery plague that killed even more people in Europe and Asia than the Black Death?
 
After no luck with the Search function here, I’m posting a general question for everyone: Does anyone recall a TL revolving around or at least incidental to the introduction of new diseases from Native Americans to Europeans, on a scale approximating that of the damage caused by European disease in the Americas?

Some estimates claim that European diseases killed up to 95 percent of the native populations in the first 100 years or so of contact. I’ve had a scenario running around in my head where the Indians give as good as they get, involving a two-way disease trade between Europeans and indigenous Americans. I know that most of our now-common diseases came from domesticated animals, but a few, like yellow fever IIRC, came from incidental contact with wild species. (Monkeys in the case of yellow fever.) So I’m envisioning one or more endemic diseases among the native population which Europeans have no immunity to, and which affects Eurasia on a similar scale as, say, smallpox and measles did in the Americas.

Has such a timeline ever been explored here? What would be the impact of a mystery plague that killed even more people in Europe and Asia than the Black Death?

I vaguely recall seeing such a concept, but I can't remember any specifics, and could be wrong about this.

That said, I don't think that this scenario is incredibly likely, for a few reasons. Europeans had a much higher resistence to diseases than many native americans because Europeans lived in a (generally) more urbanized environment, and in close proximity to a number of domestic animals which lacked counterparts in the Americas. Thus, European immune systems were capable of countering diseases which had never reached the Americas. In addition, there is a theory that the journey across the Bering strait killed off a large number of potentially deadly diseases in what would become the native americans, thus giving them a longer life expectancy but weaker immune systems after contact with the europeans.

That said, there is a theory that at least one American disease did ravage europe. There is some evidence that the spread of syphilis in europe was brought on as a result of the Colombian exchange.
 
i cant remember if its quite the same as what yer askin for but there was a good timeline here a while back called somethin like the horse plague? where in 1520 or so a black death analog rips thru europe.
 
You also have the problem of getting the disease across the Atlantic. If the plagues are that deadly then your going to get a lot of ghost ships floating around, with the entire crew killed by the diseases. I could imagine that a lot of countries might give up setting up colonies as they are simply pouring resources/people down the drain as almost everyone who travels across is going to die. This could mean you get more colonisation of Africa (?) or an earlier discovery of Australia. However, it is equally possible that with a plague with a round about 95% mortality rate, countries won't be doing any colonising for a while
 
Columbian Exchange -- that's the phrase I was looking for. Thank you.

I completely understand your reasoning about European disease resistance, but it strikes me that the resistance was only to European (or more accurately, Eurasian) diseases. I'm postulating an endemic American disease that does not have a Euro analog that might offer resistance, something that developed among Native Americans after they crossed the Bering Land Bridge. The scenario I'm playing with involves Indians who are kidnapped by explorers and brought back to Europe. That was quite common at the time, and it's entirely possible that one or more could be a carrier of the disease.

Syphilis doesn't spread as easily as airborne disease, although it was certainly deadly, at least in the beginning. I recall reading accounts of European soldiers dying within days of contracting it in the 1500s, which to my mind at least hints at a New World origination.

I vaguely recall seeing such a concept, but I can't remember any specifics, and could be wrong about this.

That said, I don't think that this scenario is incredibly likely, for a few reasons. Europeans had a much higher resistence to diseases than many native americans because Europeans lived in a (generally) more urbanized environment, and in close proximity to a number of domestic animals which lacked counterparts in the Americas. Thus, European immune systems were capable of countering diseases which had never reached the Americas. In addition, there is a theory that the journey across the Bering strait killed off a large number of potentially deadly diseases in what would become the native americans, thus giving them a longer life expectancy but weaker immune systems after contact with the europeans.

That said, there is a theory that at least one American disease did ravage europe. There is some evidence that the spread of syphilis in europe was brought on as a result of the Colombian exchange.
 
Columbian Exchange -- that's the phrase I was looking for. Thank you.

Glad to be of service

I completely understand your reasoning about European disease resistance, but it strikes me that the resistance was only to European (or more accurately, Eurasian) diseases. I'm postulating an endemic American disease that does not have a Euro analog that might offer resistance, something that developed among Native Americans after they crossed the Bering Land Bridge. The scenario I'm playing with involves Indians who are kidnapped by explorers and brought back to Europe. That was quite common at the time, and it's entirely possible that one or more could be a carrier of the disease.

This is a good point, and it occured to me while I was crafting my first reply. Of course, if a disease comparable to smallpox arose in the Americas, then the results will be rather ugly in europe. However, conversly, because the native americans had a smaller pool of diseases which could mutate into deadly strains, and the average european will have a more developed immune system than his American counterpart. Both of these facts will probably hamper the spread of an American disease in Europe. Another fact to consider is that this plague will probably be less immediate and influential than the outbreaks of european diseases which anhiallated native american populations (it wasn't exactly uncommon for plagues to ravage europe during this timeframe).

Overall, this scenario is workable, but isn't the most likely course of events. One other thing to consider is that, if such a disease (or diseases) is floating around the americas, you may see a very changed americas (for instance, shorter lifespans).

Syphilis doesn't spread as easily as airborne disease, although it was certainly deadly, at least in the beginning. I recall reading accounts of European soldiers dying within days of contracting it in the 1500s, which to my mind at least hints at a New World origination.

It's inconclusive. There is evidence that some form of syphilis was present in europe pre-colombus, there is some that says it originated in the new world. IIRC there is a hypothesis that both schools of thought are somewhat correct, and what happened is that Colombus brought back a particularly dangerous strain which had been divorced from what became the medieval european strain when native americans settled in the western hemisphere. Personally, I think it originated in the Americas to some degree at least.
 
Dale Cozart goes into this in his "native american victories" book, calls it Lock Joint, has it come from rodents via mosquitos and sets eurasia back like 500 years..
 
Dale Cozart goes into this in his "native american victories" book, calls it Lock Joint, has it come from rodents via mosquitos and sets eurasia back like 500 years..

Do you have a link? A Google search turns up several references to him, but they all lead back to an AOL site that has been shut down since last year.

(And has anyone who writes "shut" a lot ever noticed how close the "u" key is to the "i" key?)
 
Overall, this scenario is workable, but isn't the most likely course of events. One other thing to consider is that, if such a disease (or diseases) is floating around the americas, you may see a very changed americas (for instance, shorter lifespans).

True. I have to play with the idea some more before I'm totally comfortable with it. I picked up Guns, Germs and Steel last night, and before remembering how frustrated Diamond made me, I read a section about the depopulating of the Americas. (I'll give him credit for making a complicated topic accessible, but he says nothing new. This tells me far more about the decision-making process inside the Pulitzer committee than I really wanted to know.)
 
Gents,

Syphilis existed in both the Old and New worlds before Columbus' voyages. More accurately, specific strains of syphilis existed in both regions and, as always with diseases, the strains and populations in question had learned to "live" with each other.

When the Columbian Exchange kicked off, the two strains met, mingled, and produced a hybrid that neither population had resistance against. The result was a syphilis that killed in days, instead of the decades we're used to, and which chased Charles VIII's army back over the Alps and out of Italy more than anything the Italians, HRE, Spain, or the Pope did.

In order for a slate wiper to develop in the Americas, that hemisphere will require much more animal husbandry that occurred in the OTL. Settled populations were already more than dense enough.

After landing his expedition on Florida's Gulf Coast in the late 1530s, De Soto managed to stumbled around most of what would become the US southeast reaching as far north as Illinois and the Carolinas and as far west as Missouri and Arkansas before dying himself in either Louisiana or Arkansas. The remnants of his expedition withdrew from the region through Texas and northern Mexico.

De Soto brought along not only horses, but also a food supplies which included herds of cattle and swine. Naturally, animals from each herds both escaped and were stolen during the expedition's aimless trek.

Across most of the huge swath of territory they marched across, De Soto's men found settled villages within sight of each other and a population level that quite normal to men from Europe. However, when French expeditions crossed much of the same region nearly a century later, they found an "empty" land with hundreds of abandoned villages and little, if any, population at all.


Bill
 
I'm postulating an endemic American disease that does not have a Euro analog that might offer resistance, something that developed among Native Americans after they crossed the Bering Land Bridge. The scenario I'm playing with involves Indians who are kidnapped by explorers and brought back to Europe. That was quite common at the time, and it's entirely possible that one or more could be a carrier of the disease.

Something to consider is that the Bering Strait theory is not nearly as widely accepted as it used to be. Not surprising, since the evidence for it was always poor. I'd say the split in academia is close to 50/50. I (and many others) have long argued that Indians came over far before the BS Strait opened as well as after, by boat.

The first instance we know of Indians coming to Europe (likely pulled there by ocean storms and a shipwreck) was actually recorded back in Roman times. So your scenario could happen quite early.
http://books.google.com/books?id=Et...&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=roman&f=false
See pg 39.
 
Something to consider is that the Bering Strait theory is not nearly as widely accepted as it used to be. Not surprising, since the evidence for it was always poor. I'd say the split in academia is close to 50/50. I (and many others) have long argued that Indians came over far before the BS Strait opened as well as after, by boat.

The first instance we know of Indians coming to Europe (likely pulled there by ocean storms and a shipwreck) was actually recorded back in Roman times. So your scenario could happen quite early.

Thanks, but I'm trying to avoid ASB. Quoting James W. Loewen doesn't lend your theory much credibility, if I may say so. And the Bering Land Bridge hypothesis is accepted by far, far more than 50 percent in academia. If you have evidence to the contrary I'd love to see it, since it certainly isn't the case in the parts of academe I'm familiar with.

The only issue is whether that migration was the first, given archaeological digs in Chile and elsewhere. There is that stray DNA strain among Native American populations that points to a possible European connection in the far distant past, which makes the Solutrean hypothesis believers get all starry eyed. That needs a lot more research before anyone can say anything conclusive. But for this scenario I'm sticking with the usual suspects in terms of history. Coming up with a Native American plague is stretching it enough.
 
Do you have a link? A Google search turns up several references to him, but they all lead back to an AOL site that has been shut down since last year.

(And has anyone who writes "shut" a lot ever noticed how close the "u" key is to the "i" key?)

i got the book offa amazon several years ago.
American Indian Victories : Alternate Histories of the struggles between indians and europeans Dale R Cozart.

tho i think it was one of those books on demand deals..
 
Thanks, but I'm trying to avoid ASB. Quoting James W. Loewen doesn't lend your theory much credibility, if I may say so. And the Bering Land Bridge hypothesis is accepted by far, far more than 50 percent in academia. If you have evidence to the contrary I'd love to see it, since it certainly isn't the case in the parts of academe I'm familiar with.

Disparaging a historian as widely used as Loewen doesn't do much besides make you look like you have a personal grudge against a popular historian. You might want to try reading before you condemn something as ASB. I linked to show you Loewen's source, if you'd bother to notice, and you should critique that rather than engage in ad hominem attacks.

Your local circle in academia hardly counts. That's anecdote, not evidence. Up til ten years ago the BS theory has mostly been maintained by fear, not evidence.


--------------------

http://goarchie.com/aashid/BeforeIndians.html

Rediscovering America
The New World may be 20,000 years older than experts thought

Reprint from October 12, 1998 issue of “U.S. News and World Report”

....But the big break that persuaded many to rethink the conventional theory has come thousands of miles from Clovis in Monte Verde, Chile. There, archaeologist Tom Dillehay of the University of Kentucky has, for 20 years, been excavating wood, bone, and stone tools from rolling pasture land. Last year he was joined by a blue-ribbon group of archaeologists, including many who were skeptical of Dillehay's long-controversial assertions that the artifacts probably are at least 12,500 years old. The expert panel viewed the site and wound up agreeing with Dillehay: The tools bore no resemblance to those of the vanished Clovis culture. Dillehay and his Chilean colleagues now are planning more excavation to explore hints that people were at the site as many as 30,000 years ago.

Some scientists say one needs only to study modern Indians to conclude that their ancestors got here before Clovis time. One hint is in genetic material passed down only from mothers to offspring, called mitochondrial DNA. Such genes carry a molecular clock--if a single population splits into isolated groups, the buildup of random, but distinct, mutations allows geneticists to estimate how long the original groupings have been separated. "For the last five years, the genetic evidence has been saying early, early entry" into the Americas, says Theodore Schurr, a geneticist at Emory University in Atlanta. When Schurr counts the mutations accumulated among American Indians, the molecular data are consistent with departures from Asia between 15,000 and 30,000 years ago. The analysis revealed three distinct families of mutations common among American Indians and found elsewhere only in Siberia or Mongolia. Strangely, about 3 percent of Native Americans also have a genetic trait that occurs elsewhere only in a few places in Europe. This could mean either that some Asian populations migrated both west, into Europe, and east to the Americas, or that Ice Age Europeans may have trickled into the New World many thousands of years ago, perhaps by skirting the Arctic ice pack over the North Atlantic.

Linguists offer a remarkably parallel analysis. Johanna Nichols, a professor in the Slavic languages department of the University of California--Berkeley, counts 143 Native American language stocks from Alaska to the tip of South America that are completely unintelligible to one another, as different as Gaelic, Chinese, or Persian are from one another. The richest diversity of languages is along North America's Pacific coast, not along the Clovis group's supposed inland immigration route. California alone has dozens of dissimilar languages.

It takes about 6,000 years for two languages to split from a common ancestral tongue and lose all resemblance to each other, Nichols says. Allowing for how fast peoples tend to subdivide and migrate, she calculates that 60,000 years are needed for 140 languages to emerge from a single founding group. Even assuming multiple migrations of people using different languages, she figures that people first showed up in the Americas at least 35,000 years ago. If archaeologists haven't found proof of such ancient events, well, "as a linguist, that's not my problem," Nichols shrugs. Clovis-first, she says, is "not remotely possible."

The glacier highway.
Even some geologists are taking a punch at Clovis primacy. "Recent work shows that the corridor [through the glaciers] was not open until 11,500 years ago," says Carole Mandryk, a geologist at Harvard University. "That is a pretty major problem for ideas that it was a highway for colonization within a few centuries." Mandryk's studies indicate the corridor would have been nearly impassable for a century or more, with little game or edible vegetation, and vast, boggy wetlands. "The corridor is 2,000 miles long," Mandryk says. "Let's say you are two young guys, and you carry as much food as you can, and you walk as fast as you can. It still takes you six months to get through. And then you run around and kill a lot of animals. Then you have to go back and tell everybody else to get their families and come on down." She blames the persistence of the Clovis-first theory on these "macho gringo guys" who "just want to believe the first Americans were these big, tough, fur-covered, mammoth-hunting people, not some fishermen over on the coast."

Just this summer, one longtime Clovis-firster abandoned the idea. For years, Albert Goodyear, associate director for research at the South Carolina Institute of Archaeology, has calmly supported Clovis. Monte Verde shook him just a bit. So in July, along the Savannah River at a site called Topper, he decided, just to be responsible, to keep digging below sediments dated to the Clovis era. All of a sudden, "we found a tool, and then another." For a solid yard down, scores of blades, flakes, and other human-crafted artifacts turned up. Goodyear told students and volunteers, yes, those sure look older than Clovis. "I had a paradigm crash right there in the woods. I felt like Woody Allen, like I had to turn and say to the audience, 'Why am I saying these things I'm not supposed to believe?' Just five years ago, nothing new was possible in American prehistory, because of dogma. Now everything is possible; the veil has been lifted."

Finds such as Goodyear's are cause for celebration among long-suffering Clovis doubters. "The Clovis-first model is dead," proclaims, with some overstatement, Robson Bonnichsen, director of the Center for the Study of the First Americans at Oregon State University. He has made the center a clearinghouse for information about alternatives to Clovis-first. "I've felt there were people here more than 12,000 years ago from the start," he says. "We're finally getting the evidence to back that up."
 
Last edited:
Gents,

In order for a slate wiper to develop in the Americas, that hemisphere will require much more animal husbandry that occurred in the OTL. Settled populations were already more than dense enough.

Bill

Agreed. Some estimates put the population of North America as equal to that of Europe in 1491, and certainly the Mississippi Valley cultures had the population density required to serve as a disease reservoir. The lack of domesticated animals is an issue in the development of a large catalog of diseases, but I'm thinking in terms of just one or two (OK, maybe three) that could have leaped from wild animals into humans the way yellow fever presumably did -- perhaps through Central American monkeys as a vector, or from passenger pigeons, wild ducks, or domesticated turkeys.

The late George Carter, Sr., who was professor emeritus of geography and anthropology at Texas A&M (and who never met a transPacific pre-Columbian hypothesis he didn't like), noted that there was some documentary evidence for the presence of Asiatic chickens among the Aztecs at the time of Cortes. Another possible source, although more than a little ASB.

Edited to add: One possible aspect is the native population has developed immunity to the point where it is no more lethal than, say, chicken pox or the mumps, but is overwhelmingly deadly to Europeans, just as the reverse was true for what are now (or were) common childhood diseases for Europeans.
 
Last edited:
Look, AmI, if you had bothered to read the rest of my post, you'd have noted that I'm already aware of the issues you raise. It's just that they are not at all germane to my particular scenario.

Thanks for your input.
 
Cash,

There's a RPG scenario for GURPS, IIRC, that tangentially addresses your TL. The author's name is Paul Drye and it's called, again IIRC, Pasteur-1.

Drye posits that the horse is not hunted and/or driven to extinction in North America and is domesticated instead. That event leads to the domestication of glypodonts (it's a RPG okay? :rolleyes:) and waterfowl.

Anyway, Columbus meets the Caribbean outlier of a civilization centered around the mouth of the Mississippi at a level of development roughly equivalent to 1AD Europe. Further voyages pass slate wipers in both directions across the Atlantic. Drye invents, again IIRC, three New World diseases that all but destroy the Old.

The RPG part of the idea is set in a devastated Italy as Da Vinci and a few others research the new diseases and try to pass along basic public health measures.

Oh, don't worry about AIHA. He's a rather good source of information and, if he has a bee in his bonnet about some topics, he's no different from the rest of us here. I remember when he sourced some ideas to a fellow who believes Indians and dinosaurs co-existed. Both he and the rest of us had a good chuckle.


Bill
 
Top