A quick plausibility check on some pod components. Need your help for a WW1 POD to have a different development in WW2.
The premise would be that he Germans in 1917 realize that they need to end the world ASAP. I imagine that post Brest-Litovsk, the Germans ask the US to mediate peace. It doesnt happen, because the French wants Alsace-Lorraine back.
The Germans does however go very far with the British and even concede to naval armaments limitations (a tough one from Wilhelm II), and the British are sympathetic.
The Germans refrain from unrestricted submarine warfare, and avoid anti-US escalation (no Zimmerman telegram), because they are trying to broker a peace deal.
The German conclusion becomes that the French can be politically isolated, and that they would need one last offensive to bring the French around. This result in a 1918 spring offensive that is remarkably succesfull initially (as OTL), and ITTL the Germans go for Paris after the break-through. The Germans get as close as 50 km's before the French give in and accept peace based on 1914 German-French borders.
Other details are the restoration of an independent Belgium, the blame (guilt clause is placed on Austro-Hungary which is separated in the OTL states except the Sudetenland and Austria goes to germany, and there is a Czeck and a Slovakkian state. The eastern borders are maintained, with a smaller Polish state formed together with independent Baltic states and an independent Ukraine. Germany, does not regain its colonies.
Did Germany win or lose? Since they are giving up major parts of Brest-Litovsk and their colonies while French was seen as about to collapse, domestically they feel they have been cheated of the victory.
This, the follow-on of the blockade, the returning soldiers leads to civil unrest and the installation of democratic reforms (the Kaiser basically now less power than the President in the Weimar republic).
The new constitutional monarchy has teething problems and will give in to radicalism during the depression, but in this case it is a much stronger Germany.
Could these preconditions work for a WW2 like TL with a stronger Germany from the onset, with or without a certian Austrian in the seat of power?