I remember a post I made in the wank labour as much as possible thread.

Blair was the most successful Labour leader in history, electorally, no contest. Labour got over 400 seats twice in a row and had big majorities three times in a row. They lost when the opposition got its act together, Labour crumbled on its internal divisions, the economy slumped and genrally thre was a whole lot of bad luck for Labour. To wank Labour the New Labour approach needs to be sustained and the opposition needs to remain ineffectual and divided.

To do it best you;d need to rip the Tories apart. they came pretty close to that with the formation of the Pro-Euro Conservative Party. Let's say that Clark and Heseltine and other important Europhiles, seeing no future in Hague's Tory party, join the Pro-Euro Conservative Party in 1999, and in 2000 it forms an alliance with the LibDems and they run several fusion tickets and use tactical voting.

2001 election sees Labour get about 430 seats, a majority of over 200 seats. The Tories collapse even further, getting about 120 seats while the LibDems get about 70 seats and the Pro-Euro Conservative Party gets a few more than 10.

The LibDems become much stronger, and Kennedy decides to target the Tories in 2005 in the hope of destroying them, avoiding catering to the left in the hopes of winning over Tory voters. A hollowed-out Tory caucus may keep IDS narrowly and becomes more and more divided. In 2005 Labour gets a majority of over 100 seats, losing many seats due to Iraq but still getting a huge win. The LibDems and the Tories are both clustered around 25%, and the LibDems get about 80-ish seats while the Tories return to around 150-160 seats.

Blair has a renewed mandate and is able to dispel challenges to his authority. The Tories opt for change but due to butterflies get David Davis instead of Cameron. Kennedy stays LibDen leader. Blair stays on until 2009, when he resigns and Brown takes the helm. Brown calls a snap election and voters opt for 'economic whiz' Brown. Labour gets 38% of the vote, the Tories get 29% and the LibDems get 23%. The seat count is 65-ish for the LibDems, less than 200 but more than 180 for the Tories and about 370 seats for Labour.

Brown manages to lead Britain through the recession, and begins to implement more timid deficit reduction measures. Labour heads into 2014 still relatively popular, and Davis is still Tory leader. Many voters do want change though and don't particularly like Brown. the election is held before the Scottish referendum. 2014 is close but the New labour formula comes out triumphant once more, with Labour winning by the skin of its teeth with 36.5% of the vote against 33.5% for the Tories. Labour forms a coalition with the LibDems and Gordon Brown retired in 2015, making David Miliband the PM.

Polls show the Tories with a slight lead now but there is no sign of a 1997-landslide. Tony Blair, despite his flaws, did one big thing. He made Labour the party of government.

The basic idea is the Conservatives split in the late 1990s and so Blair gets even bigger majorities and a weaker Tory Party is unable to even get into a competitive position by the end of the decade. I'd like to do a TL on this scenario if it gets interest and is not too implausible.

How plausible is this? How would this scenario go? How would Blair's premiership be altered? How would UK politics be effected? Would this scenario, in preserving New Labour, work in making Labour the party of government? What if?
 
It may be later but if you want the Tories to stay in opposition IDS survives the No confidence Vote in 2003, they would have suffered a 3rd straight humiliating defeat in 2005.
 
It may be later but if you want the Tories to stay in opposition IDS survives the No confidence Vote in 2003, they would have suffered a 3rd straight humiliating defeat in 2005.

That's part of this scenario but I'm not sure if it'll be enough not it's own. I think this scenario is more effective but tat could work too. How bad really was IDS anyway?
 
Isn't this OTL - I mean David "Heir to Blair" Cameron pretty much tried to made the Tories the New, New Labour.
 
Most of it sounds plausible, but there are two things I would question

1. What factors push the likes of Clarke or Heseltine over the edge to defect given that they stayed even through IDS in OTL

2. Would a Kennedy led Lib Dem party want to do a deal with them? He was basically a social democrat, being in favour of the Euro was the main thing he had in common with the Tory left, and that wasn't greatly opposed by New Labour anyway. Maybe you would need an alternative, more centrist leader for them to make this work.
 
Most of it sounds plausible, but there are two things I would question

1. What factors push the likes of Clarke or Heseltine over the edge to defect given that they stayed even through IDS in OTL

2. Would a Kennedy led Lib Dem party want to do a deal with them? He was basically a social democrat, being in favour of the Euro was the main thing he had in common with the Tory left, and that wasn't greatly opposed by New Labour anyway. Maybe you would need an alternative, more centrist leader for them to make this work.

  1. I'm not sure about that part. I'd thought just the party's founders persuading Clarke and all to join, though maybe another PoD is required. Redwood 1997?
  2. Well, the previous thread on the issue thought they were very similar to the LibDems. I suppose this scenario would work just as well if not better without any alliance with the LibDems. This party seems quite similar to the LibDems, but maybe the two will be unique enough to avoid becoming an alliance or joining together.
Would you be interested if I made this a TL, once I refine it?
 
  1. I'm not sure about that part. I'd thought just the party's founders persuading Clarke and all to join, though maybe another PoD is required. Redwood 1997?
  2. Well, the previous thread on the issue thought they were very similar to the LibDems. I suppose this scenario would work just as well if not better without any alliance with the LibDems. This party seems quite similar to the LibDems, but maybe the two will be unique enough to avoid becoming an alliance or joining together.
Would you be interested if I made this a TL, once I refine it?

There is plenty of similarity between the Tory left and Lib Dem right, I could certainly see an alternative leadership candidate getting on well with them, just not the likes of Kennedy. Had he lost in 2001, perhaps influenced by a possible alliance with the Tory breakaway party, and it was Campbell or Hughes, then an alliance is very possible.

But yeah, I would be interested in a TL when you iron out those issues.
 
There is plenty of similarity between the Tory left and Lib Dem right, I could certainly see an alternative leadership candidate getting on well with them, just not the likes of Kennedy. Had he lost in 2001, perhaps influenced by a possible alliance with the Tory breakaway party, and it was Campbell or Hughes, then an alliance is very possible.

But yeah, I would be interested in a TL when you iron out those issues.


Maybe Simon Hughes is elected in 1999, but the election may have been before the formation of the new party.

What do you think could push Clarke over the edge? Is a specific PoD needed for that or is that happening the PoD?
 
how do you think Blair's premiership would go differently? How would Labour do in government TTL? How would current UK politics be altered TTL?
 
More thoughts?

This is a tory-screw. the Tories probably take a much more dramatic turn to modernisation after 2009 or 2014 TTL, with 4 or 5 consecutive defeats.

How would New Labour handle the events of the last 6 years, and be different from Cameron?
 
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