New France remains French, when does independence arrive?

In this timeline, France wins the seven years war and New France remains French. Over the next decade or two, New France experiences a population explosion and is able to properly defend itself from the American colonies.

When should I expect independence to arrive and more importantly how? Would France allow it to become independent or would a revolution be required? Even if it did become Independent, how likely is the whole colony to be a single nation? Or would separate nations be more realistic
 
I think this would create an interesting balance between the British and the French colonies. Since both would fear the other, especialy the homecountry, neither would push for independence, since both would want their own homecountry as protection against the other*. In the end neither could remain a colony though. The homecountry is too far away to rule it directly, so both colonies would be autonomous in many ways, turning it into some sort of Dominion-like entities. Kind of independent, but not entirely, until they are de facto independent, if not de jure.

*We could have the situation though that the northerrn British colonies (New England, New York, etc), close to the French colonies would, still want the British to protect them, but the Southern colonies, who do not fear the French as much, do not wish to pay for it and want to become indpendent of Britain.
 
As pompejus says autonomous dominions are more likely here since both sets of colonies need logistical support/protection and are willing to tolerate taxes and laws that provide this.
 
During the French revolution they refuse to acknowledge the rebels when they become too anticlerical. A great number of catholics flee to New France in this period. After Napoleons fall they are reunited with France however they retain their separate parlaiment. After 1830 they remain true to the Bourbons who remain the ruling dinasty till today thus separating from France.
 
Would this include the Basse-Louisiane and the fall of Haiti? Also where is the population and what is the ethnic demographic? Meaning, are whites migrating also to the deep southern portion of Nouvelle France or not? Unless France prioritizes European settlers, the area will be heavily non European in the form of African and mulatto inhabitants, especially outside the Île d'Orléans (southern one, as in today's metropolitan New Orleans).
 
In this timeline, France wins the seven years war and New France remains French. Over the next decade or two, New France experiences a population explosion and is able to properly defend itself from the American colonies.

When should I expect independence to arrive and more importantly how? Would France allow it to become independent or would a revolution be required? Even if it did become Independent, how likely is the whole colony to be a single nation? Or would separate nations be more realistic
The Habitants were devoutly monarchist and Catholic*, there's a strong chance that any equivalent to OTL's French Revolution would result in an independent Bourbon/cadet-Bourbon kingdom in the Americas.

As long as the St. Lawrence River Valley and its peripheral regions remains the dominant population centre Louisiana is going to remain subservient to Quebec (or get swiftly invaded and over ran should its governor declare support for the revolution), and the matter of geographic separation can be settle quite easily with projects like the Illinois and Michigan Canal and the Welland Canal.

Would this include the Basse-Louisiane and the fall of Haiti? Also where is the population and what is the ethnic demographic? Meaning, are whites migrating also to the deep southern portion of Nouvelle France or not? Unless France prioritizes European settlers, the area will be heavily non European in the form of African and mulatto inhabitants, especially outside the Île d'Orléans (southern one, as in today's metropolitan New Orleans).
Louisiana was administered as a part of New France so I don't see why it wouldn't be. As for Haiti, that's an interesting matter as Toussaint Louverture was a Bourbon Loyalist, so depending on how the new king plays his hand he can very well retain Haiti (which would massively increase the population of the newly independent Kingdom). Migrants will likely be focused on the Ohio Valley as it was the Thirteen Colonies' "in" to the Trans-Appalachian West, so establishing a relatively high density of French settlers there would be paramount to maintaining the colony. Otherwise French colonists will probably settle on the banks of the Mississippi, while Habitants will continue slowly over flowing into the Great Lakes region (OTL the St. Lawrence River Valley was starting to hit it's pre-industrial carrying capacity in the late 1700s).

An independent New France would likely be very ethnically diverse like other Latin American States, but it would also have a stronger geographic element to it, with the south having a lot of Blacks and Mulattos while the west and Upper Louisiana would have large native and Metis populations, and the St. Lawrence river valley and its peripherals will be almost entirely white.
 
The Habitants were devoutly monarchist and Catholic*, there's a strong chance that any equivalent to OTL's French Revolution would result in an independent Bourbon/cadet-Bourbon kingdom in the Americas.

As long as the St. Lawrence River Valley and its peripheral regions remains the dominant population centre Louisiana is going to remain subservient to Quebec (or get swiftly invaded and over ran should its governor declare support for the revolution), and the matter of geographic separation can be settle quite easily with projects like the Illinois and Michigan Canal and the Welland Canal.


Louisiana was administered as a part of New France so I don't see why it wouldn't be. As for Haiti, that's an interesting matter as Toussaint Louverture was a Bourbon Loyalist, so depending on how the new king plays his hand he can very well retain Haiti (which would massively increase the population of the newly independent Kingdom). Migrants will likely be focused on the Ohio Valley as it was the Thirteen Colonies' "in" to the Trans-Appalachian West, so establishing a relatively high density of French settlers there would be paramount to maintaining the colony. Otherwise French colonists will probably settle on the banks of the Mississippi, while Habitants will continue slowly over flowing into the Great Lakes region (OTL the St. Lawrence River Valley was starting to hit it's pre-industrial carrying capacity in the late 1700s).

An independent New France would likely be very ethnically diverse like other Latin American States, but it would also have a stronger geographic element to it, with the south having a lot of Blacks and Mulattos while the west and Upper Louisiana would have large native and Metis populations, and the St. Lawrence river valley and its peripherals will be almost entirely white.

I doubt métis will form any where near the percentages of the mestizo in Spanish colonies such as Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, etc... For one thing, the aspect of mixing seems to be wholly on the side of the Europeans. In this, I refer to the lack of cholos or variations of native blood that is higher than 50%. Even in places in Canada the populations are despite claims and ancestry of mixing, show nowhere near the admixture toward natives as is seen in Spanish colonies. Thus, I contend that only a small cohort would be métis or mestizo. There also is the aspect that African-Native mixing may be more common in the Basse-Louisiane, this is a dynamic not experienced in Canada, where zambo or nègre did not exist.

Agreed, this nation in that form would look almost like an upside down Brazil, with European super majority 95%+ in the north and upwards of 60-75% nègre or mulatto in the deepest southern sections of the nation. This is assuming the nation does not undergo the whitening policies that characterized Brazil in the later part of the 19th century. If so, they could perceivably lessen the non European majority in the deepest south considerably or at least make La Nouvelle Orléans primarily European descent. If they included Saint-Domingue, I do not know how the system would work, in terms of how to rule the area. It will be a massive population that is for sure. In otl, there are far, far more francophones in Haiti alone than in both Québec and Louisiane, this is not even counting if they include the other side of Hispaniola.

Regardless, I have been waiting for sometime for a tl that covers a Nouvelle-France that develops along the lines of something in reality, that is, Brazil and instead of being entirely Canadian focused, gives some attention to arguably its second or most well placed city, New Orleans and the wider Lower Louisiana and its more developed sibling, Saint-Domingue (Haiti).
 
I doubt métis will form any where near the percentages of the mestizo in Spanish colonies such as Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, etc... For one thing, the aspect of mixing seems to be wholly on the side of the Europeans. In this, I refer to the lack of cholos or variations of native blood that is higher than 50%. Even in places in Canada the populations are despite claims and ancestry of mixing, show nowhere near the admixture toward natives as is seen in Spanish colonies. Thus, I contend that only a small cohort would be métis or mestizo.
There are a few points to take in to consideration. Such as the French's higher willingness to intermarry with natives, if the French rather than the English remain the dominant fur traders then it's quite likely that there will be many more Metis than OTL, and of course if the King decides to make the Natives normal subjects rather than trying to implement a devastating reservation policy the number of metis would also be much greater.

Furthermore with OTL's Western Canada now directly competing for migrants with Louisiana and the fact that I just don't see New France having as much pull as OTL's USA* I think the Canadian great plains will remain "unpeopled" for far longer than OTL and may develop a demographic structure that looks more like the Territories** than their OTL counterparts.

*Assuming it is a Bourbon "rump" state then it'd likely be very weary of "liberal demographics" and might try restricting immigration to the bourbon regimes of southern europe (which would actually mean that many immigrants would favour the deep south, a reversal of the OTL situation)

**in the NWT Inuit, First nations, and Metis make up 54.5% of the population, and in Yukon they make up 24.2% (I'm not going bother mentioning Nunavut [84.38%] because no European would ever want to migrate there) so I imagine that in TTL's version of the Canadian west they could be 20-40% of the population, and hold clear majorities in the north.

Regardless, I have been waiting for sometime for a tl that covers a Nouvelle-France that develops along the lines of something in reality, that is, Brazil and instead of being entirely Canadian focused, gives some attention to arguably its second or most well placed city, New Orleans and the wider Lower Louisiana and its more developed sibling, Saint-Domingue (Haiti).
Aw hate to say it but that's more or less exactly what I was thinking about doing up until the week I started my current TL. Sorry to disappoint.
 
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