New Ebola Vaccine in AH Ebola outbreak in Europe or America

So it appears that there is now a 100% effective ebola vaccine that has passed trials and now is being put into full production for vaccination of all at risk individuals in Guinea (and presumably also at risk areas in the rest of West Africa)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/31/ebola-vaccine-trial-proves-100-successful-in-guinea

The development and testing of this vaccine seemed to have been quite fast, likely because of huge amount of international collaboration behind it: the VSV-ZEBOV vaccine was created by the public health agency of Canada (which holds the patent), then licensed for production in the US to a small company (NewLink Genetics) prior to the Ebola epidemic, after the outbreak production was ramped up by licensing out production to Merk. The US National institute of infectious disease then did the initial phase 1 clinical trials, and when they were successful the WHO began extensive "ring" clinical trials (initially using 800 doses from the Public Health Agency of Canada). This effort involved laboratories and agencies from Switzerland, the UK and Norway.

So what I am wondering, is now that we know the timeline for how long it would take to effectively test and set up mass production lines for a successful ebola vaccine, how do you think the situation would have developed if a major ebola epidemic had spread to Europe or North America from Africa (I know the odds of this were really long, but it was not impossible)? How much faster could the Western governments have rushed the production and testing of the Canadian Vaccine (as far as i can remember the Canadian government only ever had a couple thousand doses on hand, and they didn't even know if it would work)?

So anyone here have an idea about how a Western ebola outbreak would play out, and how much damage it would do before we had a vaccine produced, tested and distributed to the general population?
 
A western Ebola outbreak would be nothing like those in Africa, due to the presence of modern healthcare systems. There may be a few deaths, but nothing on the scope as what happened in Africa. The current number of people in the United States who have contracted Ebola in the United States stands at 2 and neither of them died, despite the fact the strain had a fatality rate in Africa of 50% or greater.

Torqumada
 
A western Ebola outbreak would be nothing like those in Africa, due to the presence of modern healthcare systems. There may be a few deaths, but nothing on the scope as what happened in Africa. The current number of people in the United States who have contracted Ebola in the United States stands at 2 and neither of them died, despite the fact the strain had a fatality rate in Africa of 50% or greater.

Torqumada

Obviously the medical system of a Western country can handle a major epidemic better than an impoverished country in Africa, but there is still always the risk you could get a spread through a significant population of carriers before it is contained (look at the SARS outbreak in the 2000s that came close to this). Also you should note that the two Americans who got sick were given intensive care by a very large team of infectious disease experts. If there was a more significant spread of Ebola, that especially high standard of care wont occur, and I guarantee you would see a very high percentage of deaths compared to most infectious diseases.

Again, I am well aware that a major epidemic was not likely, or even plausible, but remote though the risk was, it was there. Also I am not talking about the second coming of the Spanish Flu here where many millions of people die. The fact that people with Ebola get very sick, and bedridden very fast (it has a pretty short incubation time) limits how much the disease can actually spread through a population, but it is still possible to get a death toll in the thousands. Furthermore, the sheer panic an Ebola epidemic would cause would have a major effect all its own.
 
Obviously the medical system of a Western country can handle a major epidemic better than an impoverished country in Africa, but there is still always the risk you could get a spread through a significant population of carriers before it is contained (look at the SARS outbreak in the 2000s that came close to this).

Not really with Ebola. Another disease maybe but Ebola spreads in specific and not very efficient ways. The disease is spread through bodily fluids and the best ways to contain and stop the spread are 1) stop contact with the dead 2) basic sanitary practices like washing hands and disinfecting surfaces 3) seeking medical care, instead of avoiding it as was the case in Sierra Leone. All of these things are common practice in Europe and America but were not in the most recent outbreak. The only way Ebola is going to spread widely within the US or Europe is if someone does it on purpose.

Ebola doesn't spread very well, during the contagious period generally makes you too ill to go out and spread it accidentally, and is pretty visible. All of those, combined with practices in the West, not used in west Africa, a worst case scenario would likely be contained in the dozens of patients.
 
Not really with Ebola. Another disease maybe but Ebola spreads in specific and not very efficient ways. The disease is spread through bodily fluids and the best ways to contain and stop the spread are 1) stop contact with the dead 2) basic sanitary practices like washing hands and disinfecting surfaces 3) seeking medical care, instead of avoiding it as was the case in Sierra Leone. All of these things are common practice in Europe and America but were not in the most recent outbreak. The only way Ebola is going to spread widely within the US or Europe is if someone does it on purpose.

Ebola doesn't spread very well, during the contagious period generally makes you too ill to go out and spread it accidentally, and is pretty visible. All of those, combined with practices in the West, not used in west Africa, a worst case scenario would likely be contained in the dozens of patients.

Exactly. The other thing to consider is that in West Africa, it's tradition for loved ones to physically touch the bodies of their loved ones after they are dead and leading up to the funeral. That's another thing that isn't done in the US and Europe.

Would there be some people infected? Most certainly. Would there be thousands of dead? Very unlikely. Would it spread far? No. One of the things that the OP needs to consider is because of the panic on TV last year, each state went through and mandated that all health care workers be trained on the recognition of Ebola or Ebola like symptoms. Because I am licensed in two different states, I had to take two different classes. In one state I am part of an infectious disease transportation network, who are people specially trained to transport Ebola and other infectious diseases. Hospitals, health departments, and doctor's offices are still screening every person they see for Ebola. A major outbreak is highly unlikely.

Torqumada
 
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