The Primaries
Progressives
Surprisingly, many political observers believed the most interesting presidential primaries in the year 2000 were those for the Progressive Party, largely because of a novel primary system being tried beginning that year. It came to a strong start with the race in Minnesota, traditionally the first race in primary season. It had completed its “Green Revolution” under the tenure of governor Tim Penny, leading to a relatively bloated Progressive audience at events by the time primaries came along, expensive for a 3rd party that was always money-conscious. Adding to their unexpected money worries was the fact that every state/territory would now have an Open-Primary, (as demanded by left-wing reformers). However, they were able to compensate for this loss of funds by digging through their collective warchest, meaning the rest of the primary season would go without a hitch.
Each primary would include mail-in ballots available through county offices. In addition, each ballot would include polling questions on policy proposals from the congressional leadership, (a concession in return for Ross Perot keeping his almost-dictatorial powers in congressional primaries). All registered candidates were to participate in various primary debates centered around policy areas and audience questions. Lastly, the campaign season would become longer and more stretched, in order to reward grassroots campaigning, and to give voters in later states a more equal say. In order to prioritize “facetime” candidates over “big-money”, the primary was stretched out, state-by-state, and with smaller states dominating the early stages outside of New York.
Campaigning in Minnesota would become so expensive that it became a sinkhole for Pressler. Moreover, he incorrectly believed that the positive momentum of a victory there would carry him forward, feeling that if he won the primary, he would be able to rest on his laurels. In reality, the small candidate field allowed his two (equally well funded) opponents the opportunity to strike later. The second state to vote was New Hampshire. Given the “live free or die” nature of its politics, it was always projected to be an easy Ron Paul victory. The 3rd state in the race was New York, (given that spot in order to receive local attention from national media providers based in New York City). Unfortunately for both Pressler and Paul, its political field was dominated by a Nader urban machine, and an expected endorsement from mayor Sanders that would keep the candidate in the running even after going 0 for 2 in the previous two primaries. Importantly, Ralph Nader knew he didn't have a chance in the 4th state, Idaho. (It was also chosen to emphasize its importance for a certain base, namely American Indians, and Natural Law Party voters.) It was projected to be a stable Pressler victory.
After Larry Pressler scoured himself a rout in Minnesota all went as planned, except for Idaho. Without a serious Natural Law candidate in 2000, and no real Republican primary in the region, crossover voters from other parties, “wanting options in November”, went for Paul, in a blow to the Pressler campaign. He would have to save money for later, larger states. The next couple “rounds” would be a constant back and forth that would keep the 3-way race “exciting”.
Rounds:
5. Vermont (Nader)
6. Maine (Pressler)
7. Hawaii (Nader)
8. Oklahoma (Paul), Colorado (Paul) Paul “hit another gear” with shocking domination in both states on the back of strong anti-”war on drugs” campaigning. This was of strong appeal in Colorado due to the relative popularity of homegrown marijuana in the last decade as enforcement of drug control in the state was relaxed, and Oklahoma, still recovering from the Oklahoma City disaster 2 years earlier.
9. Alaska (Paul) In one of the major gambits of the Paul campaign, local campaign staff worked hard to get a last-minute endorsement from the Alaskan Independence Party. Polling originally showed Paul in an almost certain loss, but the endorsement increased crossover voting allowed him to win a majority of delegates. While the party leadership would be outraged, the incident failed to gain much media attention outside of Alaska.
10. New Jersey (Nader), Connecticut (Pressler) Pressler is able to pull off a major upset in New England, taking Nader’s home state of Connecticut. A tactic non-endorsement from Nader’s more moderate successor, Eunice Groark, would lead to Pressler sweeping suburban whites in the state.
11. South Dakota (Paul)
12. California (Nader) (Banking on endorsements from Brown, Jello Biafra, and a surprise California SEIU endorsement. However, the upcoming Calendar did not give Nader a chance to bank on this success) Being endorsed by Jerry Brown and Jello Biafra, Nader was able to win a major victory in California on the back of urban progressives in the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles areas. However, later contests would fail to provide opportunities to follow up with smaller wins. Notably, Nader is endorsed by the Service Employees International Union, who had in the past supported Democratic candidates.
13. North Dakota (Pressler), Wisconsin (Pressler), Iowa (Pressler) (Pressler’s control of loyal Midwest Parties seems to have revived “the 3rd wheel of the race”. This day would be the largest slate of delegates in a single “round”. These states were also the final states with incumbent Progressive senators on the ballot. Paul, meanwhile, seemed to have hit a rut. He knew that as long as he survived the final few rounds, (dominated by southern states and territories with little Progressive presence), the nomination would all be his. (Establishment candidates, no matter the party, tended to do well in the primaries of states where their party had a weaker presence.) Ron Paul dominated among both fringe libertarians, social progressives, and businessmen who believed feminism and birth control were good for business.
14. Illinois (Nader), Ohio (Nader)
15. Oregon (Nader), Nebraska (Pressler), Pressler’s endorsement of the Unicameral legislature as a model of reform keeps him alive.
16. Texas (Paul), New Mexico (Paul) Perot’s public endorsement of Pressler came too late, and support for “a compassionate refugee program that meets” amongst Spanish speakers and adding Mexico to CarFTA win over voters as Nader fails to win over Spanish American democrats like planned. After Texas, the remaining states had few national Progressive figures, and as a result, were grouped together more.
17. Wyoming (Paul), Montana (Paul), Puerto Rico (Pressler), Guam (Paul), N.M.A. (Paul), American Samoa (Paul)
18. Michigan (Pressler), Indiana (Pressler), Pressler had a great night until the post-primary debate (a new idea to “spice things up”).
Pressler: “I have sense and experience and D.C.” (a reference to the previous nominee, Fred Tuttle, and his lack of experience). “I have endorsements from both our party’s leadership and that of sensible members of other parties.”
Nader: "What the Senator means to say is that he thinks being a member of the establishment is a good thing. If so Senator, then why don’t you return to the Republican Party? This party rejects the smoke-filled rooms of the establishment for the sunny fields of the people! It is also why I pledge to fight to the end of the campaign to promote my ideas to the people!"
Paul: "While I agree with the Governor, I do find the statement ironic, coming from someone who worked in the Wallace administration. It doesn’t get more establishment than that..."
Pressler would never recover from his subpar debate performance, and many of his voters would switch their votes to the other two candidates, especially Paul over Nader. However, Nader, who had been underperforming, suddenly felt a jolt of energy in his campaign.
19. Washington D.C. (Nader), Pennsylvania (Nader)
20. Rhode Island (Nader), Delaware (Nader), Organized to reward grassroots campaigns, these smaller primaries rewarded Nader’s momentum, but the lack of delegate size and post-win media, in the face of a potential Democratic Contested Convention, killed Nader’s momentum while Paul focused West.
21. Nevada (Paul), Arizona (Paul), Utah (Paul), Kansas (Paul), Virginia (Paul), Washington (Nader), Massachusetts (Nader)
23. Florida (Paul) West Virginia (Paul), Missouri (Paul), USVI (Paul), Kentucky (Paul), Maryland (Nader)
24. South Carolina (Paul), Mississippi (Paul), Arkansas (Paul), Alabama (Paul), Tennessee (Paul), Louisiana (Paul), North Carolina (Paul)
To win without a contested convention, Paul could only afford to lose 1 state in the last two primary slates. However, thanks to his (correct) view that Nader would make it to the finish, he had built a campaign team deep into the race while Nader had to work on the fly.
Ultimately, it was the new primary system that gave Paul his victory. The national open primary system allowed crossover voting from many Bundy ‘96 voters, who mostly still cautiously backed the president, but wanted an alternative in case things went pear-shaped. In the same vein, southern states where progressives had little to no power were given a slight boost in delegates, which gave Paul the final push he needed to cross the finish line.
Democrats
Going into primary season, the Democratic Party was firmly divided into factions. The Kennedy liberals supported Harris Wofford, the conservatives Zell Miller, the unions Dick Gephardt, and the communonationalists John Kerry. Seeking to rise about that was Evan Bayh, son of one of the most respected statesmen of the past 50 years.
First up to vote was Minnesota. While not a state known for its sympathies for the party, it had remained first in the race despite protests in the DNC. Tradition and inertia kept it that way, to their chagrin. Gephardt hoped to target farmers in the west and miners from the state’s iron range, while Kerry hoped to appeal to those who fondly remembered Hubert Humphrey by campaigning with his son Skip. He would also focus on his hawkish foreign policy, in contrast to the Coolidgean isolationism of Bundy. However, the state would ultimately go to Bayh, whose campaign focused on promoting pro-agriculture policies in the face of Bundy’s growing open hostility to subsidies in general.
Next was New Hampshire. Gephardt would focus lots of his campaign's energy here, but ultimately Kerry would have the advantage due to being a native of the region, winning the “favorite son” vote. Virginia, the definitive Robertson Democrat state, easily went into Miller's column.
Despite winning big early on with Minnesota, Bayh would falter throughout the next three months. Slowly declining in the polls and failing to carry any other major states except Illinois, he would not be able to hold on his momentum in the race. The biggest blow though would come in Bayh's home state of Indiana. Gephardt had made a major push with union voters by campaigning with Teamsters President James P. Hoffa (son of the late Jimmy Hoffa, and winner of the party's nomination for governor that year). Democratic union members would follow his lead, pulling the race in favor of Gephardt by a narrow margin. This would lead the Bayh campaign momentum to falter, and while he would still pick up states, mostly in the Plains states and the northwest where Bayh was popular with farmers, he would not be able to build on his early win in Minnesota. He would have enough influence to remain in the running, meaning he would not drop out, wanting to keep a seat at the convention table.
Zell Miller, meanwhile, would sweep the South, winning from the votes of traditional George Wallace voters. However, he would be unable to build a coalition of voters outside of these states, and would fail to win over working class whites in the north as Wallace did, never winning a state north of the Mason-Dixon line. His distinct platform of conservative economic policy, and hawkish foreign policy, would find competition from John Kerry voters in the north.
Kerry himself had gained a reputation as a war hawk in the Democratic Party, touting his internationalist credentials, as opposed to the isolationism of the Republican Party. He would take center-stage as the choice of orthodox communationalists, gaining the endorsement of figures like Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Dan White. The endorsement of the latter was a crucial factor in his victory in the California race, riding off voters nostalgic for his governorship, and dissatisfied under the Jim Jones administration. Kerry would also win Washington due to the struggling Democratic machine established by Scoop Jackson, and Florida by appealing to retired veterans.
Harris Wofford was the candidate of choice among the old “Kennedy Liberal” coalition of Democrats, who favored socially liberal policies, and had a positive opinion of the Kennedy administration. They were a dying breed in the Democratic Party, compared to the majority of those who favored the New Deal coalition consensus of Truman and FDR. Already seen as representing a political group that was slowly going extinct, Wofford voters were mainly pseudo-Progressive Democratic voters in the Northeast and Oregon (all states with very small Democratic voter bases), allowing him to remain a factor in the race. Unlike other noteworthy political factions like the Rockefeller Republicans, the Kennedy Liberals had seen better days. But Wofford hoped that if worse came to worst, he could have a role in deciding the eventual nominee.
Dick Gephardt, meanwhile, would have surprising success in appealing to voters across a wide political and geographical base. He would go on to win races from as far as Alaska to West Virginia, mostly a result of his ability to gain endorsements across the board, and from the effects of his opponent’s votes cancelling each other out. He was able to come off as a consensus candidate among most Democrats, meaning for a while it seemed as if he would become the nominee. However, Zel Miller’s solid command of the Deep South, and a strong last minute showing from John Kerry in New York, Washington and California, would prevent him from maintaining a solid enough plurality.
By the end of the primary season, none of the major candidates had dropped out of the race, leading to a scenario that many Democrats would dread: A contested convention.
Republicans
Given Bundy’s ability to rustle feathers and the movement towards diversity and openness in US politics, many wondered if Bundy would face a primary challenger. Many pointed towards a more Goldwarite-Hawkish Libertarian-type- as a likely choice, with options including Barry Goldwater Jr. himself, but Bundy’s ability to corral votes and support with “The Deal” and the reality of the 2000 election importance, (especially in deciding redistricting), meant that no challenger emerged. Bundy would run unopposed.
