New Byzantine Empire

Xen

Banned
This isn't a timeline, more of a sounding board for an idea I had a couple of days ago. I can already see Abdul Hadi Pasha turning purple and screaming at the monitor "Why!" But hear me out

What if during the late Napoleonic Wars, Napoleon was able to convince Russia to maintain the Continental System by offering a coalition against the Ottoman Empire (about 1811/1812) and the liberation of the Slavic/Christian Peoples of the Balkans, and even the ultimate Russian dream, the conquest of Constantinople.

Tsar Alexander I, I can imagine might be a little apprehensive at first, but how could he pass up such an offer, and Napoleon had the means to build the ultimate coalition to do this, there was no questiion about that. So all of the nations of the continental system (including Austria and Prussia) join forces and declare war on the Ottoman Empire. I personally don't think the Ottomans are going to be able to beat the Coalition, even if they are allied with Britain, Spain and Portugal/Brazil.

Now let us assume for the sake of argument that Napoleon and his allies win this war, this what Europe looks like in 1815
-As part of the agreement, Russia agrees on the upgrade of the Duchy of Warsaw to a Kingdom, Józef Poniatowski becomes the King of Poland
-Russia annexes Bessarabia, Wallachia and Moldavia
-Bosnia is annexed into Illyria which is part of France
-Austria annexes Croatia
-Bulgaria is granted independence with Grand Duke Michael Pavlovich as the Tsar
-Serbia is granted independence with Miloš Obrenović I as King
-Greece is granted independence with Alexander Ypsilantis as King (Alexander and Grand Duchess Anna of Russia marry in an arranged wedding)
-Rumelia, Thrace, Albania, Macedonia, Epirus, Thessaly and most importantly Constantinople are formed into the Empire (or Tsardom) of Romania, with Grand Duke Constantine serving as the Tsar. Control of the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straigts is maintained by Constantinople
-The Ottoman Empire limps out of Europe setting up a new capital in either Bursa or Izmir, or maybe even Nicea (kind of a history repeating itself)

Two years later the old alliance falls apart, Russia leaves the continental system provoking Napoleon to invade Russia and occupy Moscow during a long and brutal winter. In 1818 the Emperor dies of pneumonia, forcing France and allies now under the command of Nicolas Oudinot in a long and humiliating retreat.
Within the year Napoleon's enemies (and some of his former friends) turn against France, an alliance of Britain, Russia, Sweden, Spain, Portugal/Brazil, Prussia, Naples and Austria go on the offensive against France, they are of course joined by Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Romania. The Ottoman Empire remains neutral, supporting Britain but not Russia.

The Congress of Vienna meets in 1819 to discuss post-Napoleonic Europe
-Russia insists on maintaining the status quo in the Balkans, and though it is not ready for another war lets it be known it will go the greatest lengths to protect them
-The status of Poland divides the Congress, it is eventually agreed that Poland be allowed to maintain its sovereignty. The 1795 partition is overturned. Prussia is compensated with Lithuania, Russia's annexation of Bessarbia, Moldavia, and Wallachia are recognized, as is Austria's annexation of Croatia. King Józef is forced to abdicate in favor of Charles, Prince of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen
-The north Italian Kingdom of Lombardy-Veneto-Illyria is created in personal union of Austria
-The Bourbons are restored in France and Spain, Murat maintains his throne in Naples and shelters former Bonapartists

As I said this isnt a proper timeline, its just to see what others think, is this plausible (I think its most certainly possible) and I am considering a timeline for this scenario. Thoughts & Ideas?
 

Xen

Banned
Five days and no replies? One would think any thread with the word Byzantine in it would at least generate some interest.

Does anybody have something to contribute? Great Idead? Terrible Idea? I know its cliche, but still...
 
Xen

One quibble in that Croatia had been part of the Austrian empire for quite a while. Are you thinking perhaps of somewhere like Bosnia?

Even with France and Russia allied and the Germans dragged along it would not be easy. There would be serious logistical problems in getting large forces into the southern Balkans as they would not be able to use the seas. Britain making sure as that.;) Although the division gives the bulk of the region to various Russian and hence Orthodox nobles mistrust of the western/Catholic world. As such they might get a mixed welcome. Also as mentioned there were larger proportions of Muslims in the region at the time so even if the Christians welcomed or didn't oppose the invasion there would still be a lot of fighting.

Not saying it would be impossible but wouldn't be easy, especially given the deep mistrust that would be present between French, Russians and everybody else. Also Napoleon by this time still have his ulcer in Spain so he would have to try and resolve that at some point, which would not be easy either.

If they did succeed then Napoleon was defeated in such a method, which doesn't seem unlikely after such a long period of strain I suspect that Russia would 'keep' most of its gains. They or local representatives would be the powers in place across much of the region and no one would be too eager for another long war to remove them. However I suspect it would be a region of continued unrest as both the substantial Muslim elements and increasingly the local Orthodox nation groups would seek to get out from the Russia yoke. At least one or two of the new states would probably form alliances with western or central European powers to achieve this.

Steve
Steve
 

Xen

Banned
So you're thinking a Balkan Wars type of scenario anyway, like we seen in OTL, but rather than trying to break away from the Ottoman Empire, it is trying to break away from Russia and Romania? Would make for an interesting story. Especially the new states that come out of Romania and how they might develop, as well as countries that are already there such as Serbia and Greece, then you'd have the Ottoman's looking for revenge.

By modern times we might have a surviving Romania reduced to Eastern Thrace, but still centered around Constantinople, and possibly even losing control of the Dardanelles Straight to the Ottomans, Though I imagine by the year 2000, the Ottoman Empire or its successor state/states may have given up in trying to recover Constantinople as it would be Russo-Romanian and probably quite stable.
 
And why not a little variation:
Napoleon proclame the restauration of the Roman Empire,
and declare himself Roman Emperor of the West,
with the Tzar Alexander as Roman Empeor of East.
 
I don't understand why anyone would want this result. Fragmenting the Balkans into little statelest is the last thing anyone would want.

While the Ottomans can't beat Russia and France, allied to Britain they can make it a much tougher fight than it's worth, and Constantinople can't be taken in the face of British opposition, so the whole exercise is totally pointless from the Russian perspective. Besides, why on earth would Russia want to reconstitute the Byzantine Empire when they want control of the Straits themselves? It doesn't make sense.
 

Xen

Banned
I don't understand why anyone would want this result. Fragmenting the Balkans into little statelest is the last thing anyone would want.

While the Ottomans can't beat Russia and France, allied to Britain they can make it a much tougher fight than it's worth, and Constantinople can't be taken in the face of British opposition, so the whole exercise is totally pointless from the Russian perspective. Besides, why on earth would Russia want to reconstitute the Byzantine Empire when they want control of the Straits themselves? It doesn't make sense.

Actually this is something I watched a program that Catherine the Great had wanted to do, not too long before my POD, in fact her grandson Constantine was her hand picken ruler of neo-Byzantium, the same guy I have as the Czar of Romania. I had always thought the Russians wanted control of Constantinople for themselves and have a warm water port:confused:

Beats me, a Russian Constantinople might be bad for all those beautiful Byzantine era cathedrals. I just have a feeling the Ruskies would be so anxious to restore them to Christianity and end up messing up those ancient mosaics, the Turks are currently painstakingly restoring. Kind of ironic isn't it?
 
Interesting - I think the only hurdle to get over is the POD, since I think at Tilsit Napoleon more or less offered Russia this anyway (hence the outbreak of the Russo-Ottoman War, the Battle of Athos etc) but that Aleksandr wasn't -1- convinced that Napoleon would leave him alone in the long-term so didn't deploy his full strength, -2- wasn't sure that destroying the Ottoman Empire was in Russia's medium-term interest

I do wonder how much of the problem is Aleksandr himself, and thus how it might be potentially solved by getting rid of him (presumably illness or accident so as not to release those waves of butterflies) ? At this date, Konstantine would without doubt ascend the Russian throne, and what would his views be ? One can hardly doubt he would have DIFFERENT views than his brother, and this simple fact might be sufficient

It would end up coming down to a matter of trust, I think - could Russia trust Napoleon to not interfere in her sphere of influence and to not make plans to challenge Russia directly ? Napoleon had an unfortunate habit of upsetting the apple-cart he had himself had righted.

The upgrading of Warsaw to the kingdom of Poland, leaves Russia's gains from the Polish Partitions intact (since Warsaw was formed out of Prussia's) so in a sense Russia need not feel aggrieved. The problem is that the resurrection of the kingdom would look like a claim on her Polish lands, lands that no Tsar would contemplate giving up, and certainly not to an ally of Napoleon. Possibly Russia's agreement can be bought, but it would always feel wary on this issue.

Looking at the greater scope of this idea, most of it seems to fall out fine. I wonder whether the Finnish War happens at all, or whether if Russia focuses on the South, it simply comes to an amicable agreement with Sweden, allowing both Finland to remain Swedish, and Gustav IX to remain on the Swedish throne, at least long enough for his son to succeed him, perhaps under a Regency

I am rather confused by what you mean by Austria annexing Croatia ? They already rule Croatia-Slavonia, whilst France here has expanded from Illyria (ex-Venetian Dalmatia) into Bosnia. As a note on the latter, Montenegro has designs on Hercegovina and is at this time a Russian ally. Since France is too, one assumes that Russia still has pre-eminence in the Septinsular Republic ? (I'd need to check the dates) A Russian fleet is present in the Mediterranean

- - -

A Grand Coalition against the Ottoman Empire is an intriguing idea. With Prussia beaten and Austria cowed, both would see Russian involvement as a sign that compliance is the only logical choice. Thus I have no problem with the involvement of either, even though logically the Prussians have no aims other than to support their ally (but then in 1941 what aims did the Italians have in the USSR other than this ?).

Austria would be looking to re-acquire rule over Belgrade, the Banat and Oltenia (W Wallachia) which it had for a while in the 18th century but gave up. The Serb Revolt is looking for a sponsor/guarantor, and Vienna may well seem like a good bet to the Serbs - their historical connections are good, and if they can have autonomy under Austrian suzerainty then they would be likely to support it

I don't, though, see Serbian independence being very easy... It conflicts too much - with Austria, with Bulgaria, with the new Rome even, and even with Montenegro which intends to be THE Serbian ethnic state with Russia's aid.

Given that Russia is annexing the Principalities, and that a new Rome is rising from Thessaly to Constantinople, I am wondering at Bulgaria... On the one hand it could be created as a rump, with the coast partitioned between its two larger brothers. On the other hand, and fitting the imperial dignity of having a Russian Grand Duke as its Tsar, it would sit strong between Russia and Romania (Rome). If the latter, I think it would be more likely to have possession of part of Macedonia - Nish at least. Macedonia's inhabitants in this period would be identified as being pretty much ethnically the same as the Bulgarians, I believe. Perhaps a partition makes sense, I don't really know.

In all, your 1815 settlement pretty much looks good, and your plans for Greece seem cool.

Looking at 1819, I could see Poland remaining neutral, but Russia is not going to give up any territory to Prussia in recompense. They were allies in the end, and Russia owes nothing to Prussia. I do think Russia would support calls for Prussian compensation - this might depend on what Saxony got up to in this timeline, since its ruler never got to hold the dignity of Warsaw, or if Saxony is not seen as being in any way up for grabs, might see Russia support Prussian claims to the ex-Austrian Netherlands

I'm abiguous on the forced abdication of Poniatowski for a Catholic Hohenzollern, and suppose I can see how it makes sense - on the one hand, Poniatowski was Napoleon's man and they want him gone, on the other hand a Hohenzollern there would appease Prussia, and a Catholic one would be needed. One just wonders what the Poles feel about it !

Lombardy-Venetia-Illyria is an intriguing creation, and whilst I can easily see a Habsburg getting it, I think the other powers would baulk at seeing it set up in personal union with Austria, especially if this is an Austria that has expanded in the Balkans. The example of the Romanovs would be pointed to - different members of the family ruling in Bulgaria and in Constantinople, rather than those states being in personal union with Russia

Francis I of Austria has two sons, one of whom isn't likely to bear children (or, in the incorrect opinion of many to live long) so the solution is not immediately obvious. However, the pre-1790s example of Tuscany should be looked at - the second heir was always going there, and if elevated to the imperial throne, his own second heir was confirmed as Grand Duke of Tuscany. Thus Archduke Franz Karl could get Lombardy-Venetia-Illyris with reversion to HIS second son. The ex-Grand Duke of Tuscany, recently dispossessed as Grand Duke of Wurzburg, would simply get Tuscany back, albeit now with Elba


These are my meandering thoughts so please feel free to challenge them, correct anything that my faulty memory has got wrong

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I think it's one thing to want Constantinople, and another to take it. Russia has a serious problem logistically in projecting power to the South, and as I mentioned before, the city is one of the most defensible on earth. In the Black Sea, the Russians have nothing to get past the Ottoman navy, which is actually fairly respectable in this era.

You can take it as a given that the British will support the empire, in which case taking the city is downright impossible.

Also, the Ottoman Empire is very weak in this period, but not supine. Even with Suvarov in command, Russian gains against the Ottomans in OTL were pretty limited. An effort to destroy the empire would mean campaigning in the heartlands of the empire which as opposed to the Principalities, would unite the Muslim population pretty effectively in a defensive effort. You might actually see Christian subjects resisting the Russians as well. Light Ottoman rule vs. invasive Russian rule - and this is before nationalism in the region.

That's not to say that Russia can't win a war, but it would be a very long one, and a very expensive one - it would depend on Russia and France remaining friends for a long period of time, and Britain for some reason staying out of it.

Interesting - I think the only hurdle to get over is the POD, since I think at Tilsit Napoleon more or less offered Russia this anyway (hence the outbreak of the Russo-Ottoman War, the Battle of Athos etc) but that Aleksandr wasn't -1- convinced that Napoleon would leave him alone in the long-term so didn't deploy his full strength, -2- wasn't sure that destroying the Ottoman Empire was in Russia's medium-term interest

I do wonder how much of the problem is Aleksandr himself, and thus how it might be potentially solved by getting rid of him (presumably illness or accident so as not to release those waves of butterflies) ? At this date, Konstantine would without doubt ascend the Russian throne, and what would his views be ? One can hardly doubt he would have DIFFERENT views than his brother, and this simple fact might be sufficient

It would end up coming down to a matter of trust, I think - could Russia trust Napoleon to not interfere in her sphere of influence and to not make plans to challenge Russia directly ? Napoleon had an unfortunate habit of upsetting the apple-cart he had himself had righted.

The upgrading of Warsaw to the kingdom of Poland, leaves Russia's gains from the Polish Partitions intact (since Warsaw was formed out of Prussia's) so in a sense Russia need not feel aggrieved. The problem is that the resurrection of the kingdom would look like a claim on her Polish lands, lands that no Tsar would contemplate giving up, and certainly not to an ally of Napoleon. Possibly Russia's agreement can be bought, but it would always feel wary on this issue.

Looking at the greater scope of this idea, most of it seems to fall out fine. I wonder whether the Finnish War happens at all, or whether if Russia focuses on the South, it simply comes to an amicable agreement with Sweden, allowing both Finland to remain Swedish, and Gustav IX to remain on the Swedish throne, at least long enough for his son to succeed him, perhaps under a Regency

I am rather confused by what you mean by Austria annexing Croatia ? They already rule Croatia-Slavonia, whilst France here has expanded from Illyria (ex-Venetian Dalmatia) into Bosnia. As a note on the latter, Montenegro has designs on Hercegovina and is at this time a Russian ally. Since France is too, one assumes that Russia still has pre-eminence in the Septinsular Republic ? (I'd need to check the dates) A Russian fleet is present in the Mediterranean

- - -

A Grand Coalition against the Ottoman Empire is an intriguing idea. With Prussia beaten and Austria cowed, both would see Russian involvement as a sign that compliance is the only logical choice. Thus I have no problem with the involvement of either, even though logically the Prussians have no aims other than to support their ally (but then in 1941 what aims did the Italians have in the USSR other than this ?).

Austria would be looking to re-acquire rule over Belgrade, the Banat and Oltenia (W Wallachia) which it had for a while in the 18th century but gave up. The Serb Revolt is looking for a sponsor/guarantor, and Vienna may well seem like a good bet to the Serbs - their historical connections are good, and if they can have autonomy under Austrian suzerainty then they would be likely to support it

I don't, though, see Serbian independence being very easy... It conflicts too much - with Austria, with Bulgaria, with the new Rome even, and even with Montenegro which intends to be THE Serbian ethnic state with Russia's aid.

Given that Russia is annexing the Principalities, and that a new Rome is rising from Thessaly to Constantinople, I am wondering at Bulgaria... On the one hand it could be created as a rump, with the coast partitioned between its two larger brothers. On the other hand, and fitting the imperial dignity of having a Russian Grand Duke as its Tsar, it would sit strong between Russia and Romania (Rome). If the latter, I think it would be more likely to have possession of part of Macedonia - Nish at least. Macedonia's inhabitants in this period would be identified as being pretty much ethnically the same as the Bulgarians, I believe. Perhaps a partition makes sense, I don't really know.

In all, your 1815 settlement pretty much looks good, and your plans for Greece seem cool.

Looking at 1819, I could see Poland remaining neutral, but Russia is not going to give up any territory to Prussia in recompense. They were allies in the end, and Russia owes nothing to Prussia. I do think Russia would support calls for Prussian compensation - this might depend on what Saxony got up to in this timeline, since its ruler never got to hold the dignity of Warsaw, or if Saxony is not seen as being in any way up for grabs, might see Russia support Prussian claims to the ex-Austrian Netherlands

I'm abiguous on the forced abdication of Poniatowski for a Catholic Hohenzollern, and suppose I can see how it makes sense - on the one hand, Poniatowski was Napoleon's man and they want him gone, on the other hand a Hohenzollern there would appease Prussia, and a Catholic one would be needed. One just wonders what the Poles feel about it !

Lombardy-Venetia-Illyria is an intriguing creation, and whilst I can easily see a Habsburg getting it, I think the other powers would baulk at seeing it set up in personal union with Austria, especially if this is an Austria that has expanded in the Balkans. The example of the Romanovs would be pointed to - different members of the family ruling in Bulgaria and in Constantinople, rather than those states being in personal union with Russia

Francis I of Austria has two sons, one of whom isn't likely to bear children (or, in the incorrect opinion of many to live long) so the solution is not immediately obvious. However, the pre-1790s example of Tuscany should be looked at - the second heir was always going there, and if elevated to the imperial throne, his own second heir was confirmed as Grand Duke of Tuscany. Thus Archduke Franz Karl could get Lombardy-Venetia-Illyris with reversion to HIS second son. The ex-Grand Duke of Tuscany, recently dispossessed as Grand Duke of Wurzburg, would simply get Tuscany back, albeit now with Elba


These are my meandering thoughts so please feel free to challenge them, correct anything that my faulty memory has got wrong

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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