ACT FOUR, PART XV
The Election of 1892

From “From Taylor to Letworth: The Evolution of the National Party”, by Tom Jenkins
Published 2009


“The 1892 Nationalist convention was guaranteed to be a showdown between the ascendant David B. Hill and the Old Guard, now led by Stephen G. Cleveland and Arthur P. Gorman. Thanks to Gorman’s powerful Maryland political machine, the convention was held in Baltimore, while Hill successfully schemed to get Kentucky Congressman Richard P. Bland, a leading proponent of bimetallism, selected as the convention chairman. Cleveland looked like a strong candidate, but behind the scenes, Gorman and many other Old Guard Nationalists doubted Cleveland’s viability due to Hill’s powerful machine. Cleveland had been deposed from his Senate seat by Hill’s machine and Tammany Hall, and the machines dominated New York’s delegate slate, not Cleveland. Worse still, Iowa Governor Horace Boies, a supporter of bimetallism, had refused to enter the race and endorsed Hill, uniting the west behind a single candidate. Governor Preston Powell of Vandalia was also in attendance in support of Hill.

The first ballot saw Cleveland lead Hill and Gorman, but the former New York Senator fell far short of a majority, leading Hill by just a single delegate. Cleveland was supported by the New England states, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Michigan. Hill, meanwhile, held total control of New York’s delegates, as well as the western states and Vandalia, Franklin, and North Carolina. Gorman held the rest of the South as well as Indiana but had little support elsewhere. In private meetings, Gorman cast doubt on Cleveland’s chances, pointing to Hill’s political network and arguing that only Gorman’s machine could stop Hill’s radicalism. The second ballot saw Cleveland lose much of his support, with dozens of midwestern delegates deserting. Hill surged into the lead, while Cleveland sank into third. Behind the scenes, Hill secured the endorsement of John Peter Altgeld of Illinois, as well as key leaders in Indiana, New Jersey, and even former Governor Collins of Massachusetts. The third ballot saw Hill build momentum, coming within 70 votes of the nomination. He gained significant support across the South, especially in Brazos, Austin, and Louisiana, and expanded his Midwestern backing.

On the fourth ballot, Hill won 287 votes, the exact number needed to win the nomination. He delivered a bombastic acceptance speech, celebrating “the decisive defeat of the corrupt monied interests and the victory of the Common Man once more in the party of Jefferson and Jackson”, and declaring that “this party shall henceforth be the defender of the worker and the farmer, the proponent of free silver and the crusader for labor reform”. He also called for the convention to nominate Horace Boies for Vice President, saying “we cannot compromise on the heart and soul of this great party. We must either be all in for the Common Man or all out.” Gorman and Cleveland united to support a candidate more palatable to the Old Guard: Wisconsin Congressman John L. Mitchell. Hill was initially adamant that Boies be the nominee but agreed to support Mitchell after it was explained that the Wisconsin Congressman would help win over German immigrants and Midwesterners wary of bimetallism.

A battle for the platform then began, with Hill ardently pushing for the party to support bimetallism, while the Old Guard, especially strident ‘goldbugs’ like John M. Palmer, Simon B. Buckner, and former Massachusetts Governor Patrick Collins, furiously opposed this. Gorman worked to keep the gold standard on the platform, but Hill spoke before the convention during the heated debate and accused the Old Guard of “being the party of the wealthy few and not the hard-working masses.” He continued over the boos of his opponents and the cheers of his allies, “those who choose the rich over the rest of the country cling to a disproven dogma – that if you legislate to enrichen the rich, their increased prosperity will tumble down to those below. But the Nationalist idea – the Jacksonian idea, the Taylorian idea – is that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, that prosperity will bubble up through every class that rests upon their shoulders.” Hill’s energized supporters ultimately prevailed on the silver question, a huge blow to the Old Guard. However, Gorman and Cleveland scored one final victory: they blocked a plank backed by Hill and Collins to oppose anti-Catholicism, which Collins decried privately.

While the majority of the Old Guard rallied behind Hill, a few dozen delegates assembled and formed the Gold Nationalist ticket, nominating Palmer for President and Buckner for Vice President. Hill dismissed this as a “futile effort” and headed off to the general election with his vast political machine at the ready.”

From “Russia: A History”, by Henry Dale
Published 2003


“In 1891, Tsesarevich Nicholas of Russia and his cousin Prince George of Greece arrived in Japan, the next leg of their world tour. But for the young Tsesarevich, it would be the last, for while the two returned to their lodgings in Kyoto from Lake Biwa, one of their Japanese escorts attacked Nicholas with a saber. The first blow struck Nicholas on the face and, before Prince George could intervene, the assailant struck again and slashed the Tsesarevich across his chest before attempting to flee. Two rickshaw drivers apprehended the fleeing assassin, while Nicholas bled out and died before he could be brought to the hospital.

The death of the heir to the Russian throne sparked a wave of outrage in Russia, while the killer was quickly arrested and sentenced to death by the Japanese authorities. Emperor Meiji expressed his sincere condolences and despite the public outcry in Russia, war was avoided. Russo-Japanese relations, however, were badly poisoned by the assassination.”

From “The Southern Economy”, by Beverly Moynes
Published 2011


“Even as the Southern sharecropper economy was wracked by the Black Exodus and the forced relocation of white smallholders into tenant farming, another, more existential threat struck. The boll weevil entered the United States via Mexico, and quickly spread to Louisiana, Georgia and Alabama by train and ship. The cotton-destroying pest then infested most of the cotton-producing south, severely hurting the cotton crop. In South Carolina and Mississippi, farmers mostly switched crops, planting soybeans and cowpeas as an alternative cash crop, though about a quarter of farmers in the two states ended up selling their farms. While South Carolina and Mississippi weathered the storm, the arrival of the weevil was devastating to the rest of the south, where sharecroppers found their harvests all but wiped out. Now in dire financial straits, landlords began demanding immediate repayment of debts, and many landlords sold their holdings or declared bankruptcy, further consolidating Southern landownership. Meanwhile, the few remaining smallholders in the South were forced to sell their farms, with many moving north or west.

[…]

In recent years, historians have theorized that the rapid spread of the boll weevil was due to the substantial railroad network in the South that was built during the Taylor administration. The weevil spread via trains transporting harvested cotton and other agricultural products, infesting most of the south within fourteen months of the weevil’s first arrival in August of 1891. Within five years, nearly every cotton farm in the country had a weevil problem, despite numerous attempts to prevent the weevil’s spread.

[…]

In order to aid the farmers and landowners of the South in recovering from the weevil with the planting of alternative cash crops, Congress passed a bill funding the distribution of soybean, cowpea, and peanut seeds to afflicted farmers, attracting significant bipartisan support. However, President Alger vetoed the ‘Soybean Bill’, claiming that he “can find no warrant in the Constitution” for the expenditure, and that “though the people support the government, the government should not support the people. The friendliness and charity of our countrymen can always be relied upon to relieve their fellow-citizens in misfortune.” The veto made Alger incredibly unpopular in the west, while the New York Sun criticized his actions as cowardly and inept.

David Hill attacked Alger for the veto, asking a crowd in Wisconsin, “why should we let a wealthy robber-baron instruct us to help ourselves, when he controls the purse-strings to a vast treasury that could give aid and comfort to stricken farmers across the country. What if the state of Wisconsin were afflicted with an agricultural blight? Would you look with favor upon a President telling you that, despite his millions and despite the government’s millions, no help will be forthcoming?”

Meanwhile, the weevil continued to ruin cotton harvests, and sharecroppers could not get rid of them all, no matter how many times a day they went out into the fields to remove them from the cotton plants. By October of 1892, the price of cotton had shot up 500% from the price in April of 1891, and textile businesses around the industrialized world increasingly came to rely on cotton from the French Sahel, the Khedivate of Egypt, and south Soudan. In the United States, the Southern economy that had depended on cotton almost since its inception was rocked to its very core, and farmers across the region faced hard, uncertain times for the foreseeable future. Some followed the lead of Mississippi and South Carolina and reluctantly began planting soybeans and cowpeas, but the damage had been done – the Weevil Depression had begun.”

From “True Grit: The Making of the West”, by Arnold Banks
Published 1967


“Arising over a dispute over land and water rights in southern Yellowstone, the Pease County War was a conflict between large cattle ranchers and smallholding settlers. The lynching of two settlers accused of banditry by the ranchers, the latest in a string of murders of suspected rustlers, caused tensions to explode into violent conflict. After a series of skirmishes, a posse hired by the ranchers attempted to invade Thomas County and drive out the settlers. A stalemate ensued, as fighting raged on and the death toll began to climb.

[…]

While President Alger ultimately dispatched troops to quell the violence, the army came down on the side of the ranchers and their hired militia. The Department of Justice declined to press charges against the ranchers accused of murder. The Attorney General did, however, prosecute three smallholders for property damage, accusing them of killing ranching horses and cattle, and destroying fences and a barn. The Pease County War was thus used as campaign fodder by David Hill, as he accused Alger of ignoring the law in favor of protecting the interests of the wealthy. Worse, Hill alleged, “the President in his wisdom has decided to punish the homesteaders of Pease County for not having the money, the land, and the power that the ranchers cling to.” The backlash against Alger intensified western opposition to his reelection, and the violence of the conflict made even midwestern and eastern audiences uneasy.”

From “The House of Freedom: A Story of America’s Oldest Party”, by Leander Morris
Published 1987


“Foraker did not participate actively in the 1892 election, having barely clung to the Governorship the year prior. Instead, aided by his primary backer Mark Hanna, he focused on building up a base of support for an 1896 bid, repairing relations with William McKinley and working on uniting the Ohio Freedom Party. He signed a bill allowing saloons to remain open on Sundays, appeasing the anti-prohibition faction of the party, secured former President Sherman’s private endorsement for 1896, and stumped for dozens of state and local races, including McKinley’s 1892 bid for Congress.

While McKinley’s Congressional race was unsuccessful, he only lost narrowly in a district that state Nationalists had gerrymandered heavily, and this close race was attributed to Foraker’s involvement. In a bad year for Freedomites nationally, and even as President Alger lost Ohio narrowly, Freedomites gained seats in the Ohio state legislature, though not enough to regain a majority. Foraker’s hand in this not only solidified his support from state allies like Hanna, but also raised his national profile as an adept campaigner.”

From “American Elections”, by Diane Greene
Published 2014


“Governor Hill ran an active campaign, travelling by train across the Midwest and upper South and speaking to crowds that sometimes numbered in the tens of thousands. He frequently attacked President Alger for the boll weevil, support of the gold standard, opposition to anti-trust laws, and incompetence in the Black Hills War. He also relied on an army of surrogates, including Governor Preston Powell, Congressman John Peter Altgeld, former Governor Patrick Collins, and Congressman Benjamin Aycock Jr. Collins campaigned heavily in Massachusetts and New York to drive up Catholic turnout, while Altgeld worked to swing German American voters, especially in Illinois, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Powell barnstormed the coal belt, making speeches in Vandalia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Aycock crisscrossed the upper south with a populist, borderline white supremacist message. He campaigned heavily for Hill in Missouri and Virginia, targeting poor rural white voters.

Alger adopted a ‘front-porch’ strategy, in which he remained in Washington and spoke to supporters there and made several appearances in his Michigan residence. In order to encourage people to travel and hear him speak, he paid for the train tickets of anyone headed to his hometown or to his speaking engagements in the capital. His opponents denounced this as corrupt, with Hill accusing Alger of “purchasing votes with train tickets” and Preston Powell alleging that Alger profited from it due to his investments in railroads.

[…]

The election was a realigning one. Hill won longtime Freedomite strongholds like Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Kansas and Iowa. Each of these states had last voted for a Nationalist in 1876, except Kansas. Meanwhile, Alger flipped Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New Hampshire, all northeastern states wary of Hill’s bimetallism, and states which had previously been either solidly Nationalist or a swing state. Hill overwhelmingly won rural counties, Catholic areas, and won two thirds of working-class counties by at least ten points, while Alger did well with wealthy Protestant areas and large manufacturing cities like Cleveland and Chicago. Though Alger won Massachusetts, he did so by less then six percentage points, far closer than anticipated.

Nationwide, Hill defeated Alger with 51 percent of the vote and 276 electoral votes, making him the first Nationalist to be elected President since Richard Taylor, and Alger was the first President to be defeated for reelection since Sam Houston (as Lincoln only became President upon Fremont’s assassination). Businessmen on the east coast lamented Hill’s election as “the legitimization of radicalism” and populists celebrated the election of a dependable ally, while the President-elect got to work assembling his cabinet. Little did the businessmen and the populists know, but Hill would prove to be quite different than either of those groups had expected.”


END OF ACT FOUR
 
The 1892 Presidential election:
Screenshot 2021-10-24 at 14-33-20 Creating User WikimanEsq sandbox - Wikipedia.png
 
ACT FIVE: Paradigm Shift
Act FIVE(2)(1)(1).png

“I am a mid-west farmer, I make a livin' off the land,
I ride a John Deere tractor, I'm a liberated man.
But the rain it hasn't fallen, since the middle of July,
And if it don't come soon my crops will die.
The bank man says he likes me, but there's nothin' he can do.
He tells me that he's comin' but the clouds are comin' too.
He ain't my friend.”
-The Highwaymen, “American Remains”
-----

“I have always believed that wise progressivism and wise conservatism go hand in hand.”
-Theodore Roosevelt
-----

“You come to us and tell us that the great cities are in favor of the gold standard; we reply that the great cities rest upon our broad and fertile prairies. Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic; but destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country.”
-William Jennings Bryan
 
Yes! My main man Ted, I am so glad we hear from him! Here's hoping he gets the two (at least!) terms he deserves, and busts some trusts!
Unfortunately Teddy Roosevelt was born well over a decade after the POD so he doesn't exist, but there will definitely be trust-busting in this TL.
 
Unfortunately Teddy Roosevelt was born well over a decade after the POD so he doesn't exist, but there will definitely be trust-busting in this TL.
Ah, so you go the extra mile and create fictional people to fill in the otl people? Interesting. (Not knocking you, I do find it interesting)

Me, I'm just lazy and use OTL people unless I see their birth as very unlikely.
 
Ah, so you go the extra mile and create fictional people to fill in the otl people? Interesting. (Not knocking you, I do find it interesting)

Me, I'm just lazy and use OTL people unless I see their birth as very unlikely.
I get that, making people up can be super painstaking at times, but it just feels weird to me to cast a butterfly net over people born after the POD, especially because births are so contingent on conditions being exactly right.
I wouldn't say it's lazy to use OTL figures, because it can be fun to explore what familiar historical figures would be like in alternate worlds, but for my TLs I definitely prefer a stricter interpretation of the butterfly effect.
 
Six minutes seems really short and I'm pretty sure there's no way a declaration of death would be given before emergency services arrived. Unless, like, the top of his head is missing or something. And then it wouldn't be "wounded", it'd be "died instantly".
 
Six minutes seems really short and I'm pretty sure there's no way a declaration of death would be given before emergency services arrived. Unless, like, the top of his head is missing or something. And then it wouldn't be "wounded", it'd be "died instantly".
Basically, in the confusion and panic immediately following the gunfire, Kennesaw is reported as wounded by bystanders, but he was actually mortally wounded and died of severe blood loss. Also, what I meant by ‘declared dead’ is that when the EMTs arrived, they determined that Kennesaw had died six minutes after being shot, not that an official determination was made before the EMTs showed up.
 
Basically, in the confusion and panic immediately following the gunfire, Kennesaw is reported as wounded by bystanders, but he was actually mortally wounded and died of severe blood loss. Also, what I meant by ‘declared dead’ is that when the EMTs arrived, they determined that Kennesaw had died six minutes after being shot, not that an official determination was made before the EMTs showed up.

Fair enough. Awkward wording in a newspaper? Surely such a thing never happens, right? /s
 
ACT FIVE, PART I
The Price is… Wrong?

From “From Taylor to Letworth: The Evolution of the National Party”, by Tom Jenkins
Published 2009


“The inauguration of President Hill presented a challenge to the established state of affairs in the Federal government. Joined by a cadre of populists that had won election to Congress, Hill stood prepared to enact what he hoped would be a major series of reforms. In his inaugural address, he pledged to introduce bimetallism, declaring “our financial system is in dire need of revisions – just as metal expands in the heat and contracts in the cold, our currency must expand in times of recession and contract when the hardship has passed. This was the commanding verdict of the people, and it will not go unheeded.”

Hill also sought to assure eastern politicians and financiers that he did not intend to pose a danger to them. To this end, he appointed Old Guards to his cabinet, such as Ohio Senator Allen G. Thurman as Secretary of State. Thurman was well-liked by his colleagues, and was confirmed unanimously, building a level of goodwill between Hill and key members of the Senate. He also appointed Congressman Adlai Stevenson of Illinois to be his Attorney General. Stevenson was a moderate supporter of bimetallism and an adept legislator, but Hill valued above all else his powerful Illinois patronage machine, which Stevenson used to fill the Justice Department with cronies, and which Hill used to shore up his support within the Nationalist Party. He also rewarded one of his most loyal supporters, Congressman (and former General) George A. Custer with the War Department.

Of course, where it counted Hill appointed committed bimetallism supporters. He selected Richard P. Bland, author of the Silver Coinage Act of 1870, to helm the Treasury Department, Adlai Stevenson to be Attorney General, and Horace Boies to lead the Interior Department. The Hill cabinet was dominated by patronage systems that filled positions with loyalists, while building strong relationships in the Senate to ensure the passage of legislation. Stevenson, for example, appointed the nephew of Senator Joseph C.S. Blackburn as a United States Attorney, and did similar favors for other people of importance in Congress to curry favor. This practice was decried by some, including Hill’s old rival Stephen G. Cleveland, as corrupt, but it undoubtedly greased the wheels of Congress and allowed for the passage of important but controversial legislation like the Coinage Act of 1893.”

------------------------------------
President: David B. Hill
------------------------------------
Vice President: John L. Mitchell
Secretary of State: Allen G. Thurman
Secretary of the Treasury: Richard P. Bland
Secretary of War: George A. Custer
Attorney General: Adlai Stevenson I
Postmaster-General: Leland Stanford
Secretary of the Navy: Arthur Sewall
Secretary of the Interior: Horace Boies
Secretary of Agriculture: Claude Matthews
------------------------------------

From “A History of the U.S. Navy”, Hubert Gardner
Published 1988


“The 1890s saw an expansion of the United States navy not seen since the Civil War. While Richard Taylor had initiated the naval spending program that resulted in the Albany class of protected cruisers and the Pennsylvania and Missouri armored cruisers, there was still a push in the Department of the Navy for a second expansion of the fleet. Other nations were building larger, more advanced cruisers and battleships, and the Navy and War Departments wanted to catch up. President Hill was initially reluctant to spend large sums on new warships, but was persuaded by the Secretary of War, George A. Custer, and the Secretary of the Navy, Arthur Sewall, to authorize America’s first battleships.

Hill was further urged by Secretary of State Thurman to push for a navy capable of operating in the Pacific – President Garfield had negotiated the acquisition of northern Borneo as an American protectorate, and Thurman believed that the United States needed a large fleet capable of projecting power in order to defend American Borneo, as well as U.S. interests in the Kingdom of Hawai’i and the Samoan islands. In his 1893 message to Congress, Hill urged the authorization of six new battleships and ten armored cruisers, half to operate in the Atlantic, and the other half in the Pacific. Congress agreed to approve four battleships and eight armored cruisers, and in 1894, the first of the Vandalia class battleships and Decatur class cruisers were laid down in the Brooklyn Navy Yard.”

From “The Two Unions: Labor in American Politics”, by Evan Q. Jones
Published 2007


“The 1894 midterm elections were disappointing to all sides. Though the Freedom Party picked up 17 seats, they fell short of reclaiming the House, and only won three seats in the Senate, coming two seats short of flipping the chamber. The silverites, dogged by rising prices without an equivalent rise in wages, lost ground in the Midwest and plains west, with the three silverites elected to Congress in Wisconsin all losing their seats to Freedomites.

Though the 1894 bread riots that rocked industrial cities would not happen until the winter, the early signs of discontent contributed to Freedomite victories in seven of Iowa’s 10 congressional districts, and all of Indiana’s House seats. However, anti-silver Populists, or at the least Populists who had turned away from silver, performed well in the Midwest, holding six seats in Ohio and three in Michigan. Silverite candidates won big in the south, with Alabama sending three to Washington, and North Carolina’s congressional delegation was half silverite.

Freedomites won gubernatorial races in Iowa, Indiana, and Kentucky on platforms opposing free silver, even defeating Preston Powell in Vandalia over the rise in food prices. Powell was shaken his loss but vowed to run again in 1898, declaring in his farewell address that, “I will return, because the fight is not yet won, and we must win it.” Hill was privately shaken by the loss in Kentucky, telling his cabinet, “I must confess I am worried about the results in such a loyal state as Kentucky”, and doubt began to grow in the Hill administration over the coinage of silver.

The mixed results confused all sides, with President Hill writing, “I was convinced that silver was the way, now I have my doubts.” Nevertheless, Hill defended silver in his 1895 message to Congress, calling it the “best solution to our economic woes – it will lift the farmer up and with him, the rest of the nation.” Others disagreed, with Preston Powell declaring, “this election was decided on the issue of silver, and the silverites came up short. One only has to look at the industrial workers, the miners and immigrant communities who all oppose the coinage of silver. If we are to court the worker, we must listen to his demands.” The elections reignited the silver debate in the Nationalist Party, with the Old Guard pointing to the defeat of pro-silver candidates as proof that it was a failed policy and silverites defending the Coinage Act for ‘working as intended.’ The elections were just the eye of the storm, however, as the winter of 1894-1895 was approaching.”

From “Bull and Bear: an Economic History of the United States”, by John Allan
Published 2003


“The key issue that won President Hill the support of the west was his steadfast commitment to a bimetallic currency system. At the time, the U.S. dollar was tied to the price of gold, an inelastic standard that constrained the supply of money and kept inflation low. While this benefitted the wealthy financiers of the East Coast, the rigid gold standard caused significant deflation, or a reduction in prices, which hurt farmers and small businesses, who were experiencing difficulty in turning a profit or paying off their significant debts. It was theorized that, by introducing silver as a secondary monetary standard, fixed at an exchange rate of 16:1, the resulting inflation would allow farmers to both earn more from the sale of their crops, as well as have an easier time paying off their debts. Critics of bimetallism could be found in both parties, and their chief argument was that introducing silver as a monetary standard would lead to runaway inflation and a depletion of gold reserves, ruining the economy.

Once in office, Hill was expected to make good upon his pledge by the hundreds of thousands of silver miners, western farmers, plains farmers, and industrial workers who had given him their support in 1892. Prominent silverites, like Fremont Senator Henry M. Teller, drafted the Silver Coinage Act, which authorized the Treasury, under silverite Richard Bland, to mint silver currency, with the U.S. government purchasing silver to mint it and an exchange rate, overseen by the Treasury, set at 16:1. The Coinage Act was incredibly unpopular with eastern politicians. The Coinage Act was thus watered down to make it palatable to the Senate as a whole. This compromise was brokered by Kentucky Senator Joseph C.S. Blackburn, who drafted a version of the bill that reduced the value of silver from 16:1 to 24:1. This proved acceptable to enough Midwestern and Southern Senators that the Coinage Act narrowly passed the Senate. Blackburn himself viewed it as an “acceptable” compromise, though he personally favored a 30:1 exchange rate. The House also narrowly approved the bill, and President Hill signed it on June 18th, 1893, to much fanfare from the populists.

The Silver Coinage Act was celebrated as a great victory for the common citizens of the United States – farmers could now pay off their debts and sell their crops at higher prices. However, even a 24:1 exchange rate was a serious miscalculation of silver’s value relative to that of gold. The first few years of the silver standard saw the plains farmers begin to prosper, with interest rates falling and agricultural prices rising. While the influx of silver-backed currency drove this prosperity, trouble was brewing beneath the surface. The arbitrarily inflated value of silver delineated by the Coinage Act meant that silver-backed money quickly began to muscle the arbitrarily undervalued gold out of circulation. Worse, while the Treasury set the exchange rate at 24:1, the metals markets valued silver at far less than the Treasury rate. This allowed enterprising investors to purchase silver, exchange it into gold dollars, and sell the gold dollars on the open market for much more than they had paid for the silver. The profits were then spent on more silver, and the trade was repeated while the Treasury’s reserves of gold were steadily reduced.

In consumer goods markets, meanwhile, inflation began to rise rapidly. Before the passage of the Coinage Act, the price of wheat was 75 cents per bushel. Six months after the Treasury began to mint silver, the price had shot up to $1.14 per bushel, an increase of 152%. Other crops also saw price spikes, with the price of barley rising 115% and the price of soybeans doubling. The rise in crop prices was a boon to farmers and speculators at Grain Exchanges, but these price spikes also drove up food prices in the cities, where the price of a loaf of bread increased 250%. Meanwhile, the drop in the dollar’s value meant that loans were being repaid in less valuable currency, leading to many banks announcing increases in interest rates. Railroad companies also announced rate hikes, complaining that the sudden bout of inflation was hurting business. The increase in the price of cereals, coupled with the subsequent increase in interest rates and railroad fares, meant that food prices in America’s cities suddenly became exorbitant.

In New York, Boston, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, and cities across the East and Midwest, the markets were stripped bare by mobs of buyers. Americans, seeing the price of food tick up higher and higher with each passing week, panicked and began buying up as much food as possible before the price rose so high as to become unaffordable. This wave of panic buying resulted in food shortages gripping the East coast as food sellers raised prices even more. There were even bread riots in the immigrant communities of Newark in Christmas 1894, with eleven deaths from stampeding. The U.S. economy was like a rotting tree trunk – it had become so weakened and hollowed-out that a single strong gust of wind would topple it.”

From “Silverdoodles and Goldbugs: Is Bimetallism a workable system?”, with Dr. Martin Gessler and Dr. Diane Koenig
Aired on FBC Business, 2009


KOENIG: Hill and Secretary Bland were rather reckless in coining silver at a fixed rate, without determining a mathematically, economically, rather, sound exchange rate. I mean, Silver Dave and Silver Dick greatly overvalued how much silver was worth comparative to gold. It was only a matter of time, once this state of affairs was established, that there would be a serious threat to the supply of gold within the Federal government’s coffers. This could be alleviated in the modern day with a complex system of Analytical Engine computational programs that can handle fluctuations in supply and demand and set the exchange rates accordingly.

GESSLER: Well, the exchange rate is only half the problem. There’s also the inflation that the influx of silver into the monetary supply brought on. If you look at the records kept by these businesses and by commodities exchanges, the fact that silver was being coined and put into the money supply was indirectly causing the massive increases in prices. The depletion of the gold reserves was dangerous, especially given the risk of recession, but far more dangerous, I think, is the effect the introduction of a full bimetallic system had on the common American family. It became a lot harder for them to afford enough food, and this is the real danger: price increases benefit farmers, but you have to balance that out with the fact that the rest of the country needs low prices in order to afford basic necessities of life.

KOENIG: The inflation, at least, the level of inflation, was brought on by the improper exchange rate fixing in the Coinage Act. Had there been a 30:1, or, even better, a 32:1 exchange rate, there would have been much less of it, and speculators wouldn’t have been able to manipulate the system. But I think that fundamentally, bimetallism is a system that needs a great deal of management. Just going back to the use of Analytical Engines, in the modern day a bimetallic system could be workable. Having the Treasury department use a very powerful AE to tightly control inflation, so you don’t get the massive price spikes you saw in 1893 and 1894.

GESSLER: A fair point and using AEs to keep inflation managed is a great system. But using a computer to adjust the exchange rates would end up creating one country with two currencies. That’s an untenable system – it’s a principle called MacLeod’s Law. Whenever two forms of commodity money exist in the active monetary supply, each with a similar issued value, whichever one is made from the more valuable commodity will eventually disappear from circulation. So even if you have an Analytical Engine running everything, the people will pick the silver-backed dollar over the gold and use that in their daily lives. Besides, the current system of greenbacks, where no commodity backs the dollar, is much simpler and still allows for a flexible money supply to manage inflation and deflation.

KOENIG: Agreed. It’s possible to make a bimetallic standard work well, but it’s so inefficient and unwieldy that if the government wants to peg the value of the dollar to something, it’s better to just pick one commodity, or not tie the dollar to anything and leave it as a free-floating currency with fluctuating value. Of course, back in the 1890s, a greenback currency was viewed as dangerous and radical. I do think that, ultimately, remaining on a gold standard would have prevented the events of the 1894 winter, but that’s just speculation.
 
ACT FIVE, PART II
Upon a Cross of Silver

From “A New History of the United States”, by Frederick Eidler
Published 1991


“The prevailing view among populist and left-wing historians is that Hill betrayed the populists and laborists during the Pullman Strike. Academics sympathetic to the cause of the labor unions frequently portray him as a backstabber who used unionist agitation to ascend to the Presidency before discarding them. This assessment of Hill is false for two reasons. One, Hill never pretended to be a supporter of labor unions, and two, he was reacting to the circumstances of the Pullman Strike and the state of the economy when he sent in the troops.

The dispute over wage cuts and a lack of agency for workers in the company town of Pullman sparked an unofficial industrial strike as workers, without direction by a labor union, walked out of the Pullman factory. This strike was quickly embraced by the Brotherhood of Railroad Workers, but George Pullman refused to negotiate with the BRW. Seeking leverage, in November 1894 the Brotherhood declared a boycott of all trains with Pullman railcars, with not only Pullman conductors, but train engineers and mechanics, as well as signalmen, all walking off the job. This shut down all rail traffic west of Detroit, and the strikes soon expanded to include freight trains as well when sympathy strikes began. This effectively shut down the transport of both passengers and freight from the west to the east, including cereal grains.

At the same time as rail traffic was shut down across the Midwest, the coal and steel industries were faced with their own crises. In Pennsylvania, steelworkers angry over low wages went on strike and were locked out of the Homestead Mill in Pittsburgh, with other steel mills nearby shut down due to sympathy strikes, and the strikers picketed the closed plants to ensure no strikebreaking workers could enter. Meanwhile, wage disputes in the coal mines of Fremont, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Vandalia resulted in a massive wave of strikes that effectively shut down production of both bituminous and anthracite coal from mid-December onwards.

With food prices already high, the near-total shutdown of rail transport meant that prices skyrocketed. The price of bread in New York increased 450%, and the price of bread in Boston went up 510%. This meant that many poorer households were unable to afford food, which was especially dangerous during the winter. In Newark, starving workers stormed a food market and stole what little bread was left, furious at the unaffordable prices. Eleven people were trampled to death, however, and police had to be called in to stop the looting. But worse was coming with the shutdown of coal mines, families couldn’t afford coal to heat their homes with, with police being called to one apartment only to find everyone in one bed, frozen to death.

President Hill had wanted to allow the strikers to work out a deal with their employers, but the growing food crisis in the East and the shutdown of Post Office mail transport meant that he had to act and come down against the strikers. Attorney General Stevenson obtained an injunction from the courts ordering the strikers to allow trains carrying mail through, but this was ignored. Finally, on January 3rd, 1895, President Hill ordered the U.S. army to stop the railroad strike, and on January 11th, the army was sent to put an end to the coal strikes as well. The presence of the army led to vicious rioting and street battles across the country but by the middle of February, the trains were running once more, bringing much-needed food and coal to a hungry and cold populace.

It was too late to prevent a recession, however. The interruption of rail traffic sent railroad stock plummeting, leading to the bankruptcy of the Great Northern Railroad and the Chicago Great Western Railroad. Meanwhile, the plummeting price of silver, caused by the ballooning quantity of it in circulation, triggered the crash of the Auraria Silver Exchange, and with it the collapse of the Hearst Company. The silver crash and the railroad crash sent investors into a panic, and soon the stock exchanges were filled with speculators dumping their railroad and silver mine shares. The Panic of 1895 had begun.

The railroad disruptions and bankruptcies were quickly followed by the failures of a string of western banks that crumbled due to the silver crash. The western bank failures caused a chain reaction, and several eastern banks also went under. Within a month after the crisis began, 14% of the workforce was unemployed and over 500 banks had collapsed. Though President Hill ended the production of silver and took steps to stop the withdrawal of gold from government reserves, the economy remained mired in depression, the most severe since 1837 – not even the 1870 recession was as devastating as 1895.”

From “Powell and Populism: The Transformation of the Nationalist Party”, by Nicholas Green
Published 1997


“The crux of the agrarian Populist movement was the same as the crux of Jeffersonianism: that the farmer, specifically, the yeoman middle-class farmer, was the natural bedrock of American democracy. Farmers were harder workers and possessed better judgement than cityfolk according to the agrarian Populists, and the government should pass legislation to bring them increased prosperity. After all, if the yeoman farmer was the bedrock of American democracy, then making the farmer prosperous would bring prosperity to the entire nation.

Many Americans learn of the Populist movement largely in terms of the agrarian faction. However, the more influential, if less prominent, faction was that of the unionists and labor organizers. Preston Powell was the leader of this silent faction, and he began to move the industrial Populists in a different direction following his defeat in 1894. He criticized the new bimetallic standard as too flawed to function and advocated instead for greenbacks – that is, money without a commodity giving it value. This repudiation of bimetallism represents Powell’s finger on the pulse of the American labor movement. Workers and immigrants viewed bimetallism with suspicion, and the Panic of 1895 only reinforced this view.

The depletion of the gold reserves and the plummeting value of silver on the open market signaled to many businessmen that Hill’s silver experiment was an abject failure. But to the industrial working class, the greatest indictment of bimetallism was its cause of the runaway price increases that had made food almost unaffordable. Preston Powell emerged as the leading critic of the Coinage Act, decrying its effect on workers. “Inflation can be a good thing,” he told a convention of union organizers, “but we have too much inflation, and that is because of silver. Further, while a gold standard was an imperfect standard, a strict cap on the money supply is preferable to wild fluctuations, and low prices of food is preferable to high prices.”

Throughout 1895, a number of special elections to the House were held, and many of them saw Powellite candidates – that is, populists and pro-union candidates opposed to bimetallism – swept into office. Powell campaigned heavily for these candidates, telling audiences in Ohio that, “the silver experiment has failed, and the economy has gone into depression because of it. If we are to salvage the economy, Secretary Bland and President Hill must halt the coinage of silver to staunch the bleeding.” These special elections forced Hill to act, and he quickly directed a reluctant Bland to halt the coinage of new silver. Banks began to discourage the exchange of silver for gold, and the flow of gold from government coffers began to reverse. It was too late to save the economy, of course, and Hill was incredibly unpopular for the recession.

While the Panic of 1895 was devastating to the economy, it was a formative period for America’s populist movements. The silver bubble had been temporarily beneficial to farmers, but the bursting of the bubble and the ensuing rise in interest rates and slump in food purchases left many worse off than before the Coinage Act. Industrial workers had been hard hit by the inflation caused by bimetallism, and so both farmers and workers turned instead to greenbacks – that is, currency that derives its value from the trust people place in it. The labor strikes of 1894 and President Hill’s response to them, meanwhile, convinced populists that they had to get one of their own elected President, or nothing, would change.

While labor denounced Hill following the suppression of the railroad and coal strikes, agricultural interests deserted him several months later. While Russell Alger had angered southern farmers with his veto of a seed bill aimed at easing the burden brought on by the boll weevil infestation, President Hill angered the west with a veto of a similar bill. Populist Nationalists, mostly from the west, introduced a bill to provide debt relief to western farmers hit hard by the depression. The relief bill passed the House and Senate, only for Hill to denounce it as an unconstitutional overreach and veto it. Enraged at Hill’s refusal to help, fifteen western Nationalists left the party and formed the People’s Party in November of 1895, calling for aid for farmers and the replacement of bimetallism with greenbacks. Hill was left alone within the Nationalists against a resurgent Old Guard, his erstwhile Populist allies having furiously deserted him.”

From “The Southern Economy”, by Beverly Moynes
Published 2011


“The inflation caused by the Coinage Act spurred most banks to raise interest rates, often times to higher rates than inflation adjustment would justify. This was especially hard on the sharecroppers of the deep South, many of whom were already mired in steep debts and now had an additional burden placed on them. Inspired by the labor unions emerging in the north, several Alabama sharecroppers organized the Farmworker’s Fraternal Association in a Montgomery farmhouse in the summer of 1894.

Faced with rising interest rates and threats from the landlords, the FFA declared a sharecroppers’ strike in the fall of 1894, in the midst of harvest season. What cotton crops survived went unpicked, soybeans rotted in the ground, and hay went unbaled. Sharecroppers picketed supply stores and surrounded their landlords’ homes, refusing to leave. Many were served with eviction notices, but the picketers refused to end the strike, even if they had been evicted.

Furious, landowners turned to the White Leagues, white supremacist paramilitary groups that had helped to enforce the Black Codes back in the 1870s. now, 20 years later, they were hired by the landowners to be strikebreakers and hired muscle. Jonathan Davenport, a sharecropper, and the leader of the Selma chapter of the FFA, was kidnapped from his home in October 1894, and his body was found three days later, nailed to the door of the Selma FFA office. He had been badly beaten and was in all likelihood tortured to death before his body was nailed up as a warning to the strikers. The murder of Davenport was widely reported in the north, but the tactic was successful – many of the FFA strikes dispersed, and the few holdouts were brutally crushed by the White Leagues in a series of raids and skirmishes.”

From “Nationalism, Imperialism, and the Death of Old Europe” by Samuel Shaw
Published 2017


“…the Armenian massacres ordered by Sultan Abdul Hamid II were revealed to the rest of the world in a series of shocking newspaper reports in September of 1895. The New York Sun declared it an “Armenian Holocaust”, while European newspapers decried it as “barbarism of the highest order”. In Russia, the young Czar George I [1], eager to weaken the Ottomans and further Russian ambitions in the Caucasus, dispatched an army of 30,000 to Batumi and Tiflis. This was seen as a prelude to invasion by the French, and Prime Minister Boulanger sent the French Mediterranean fleet, along with several contingents of marines, to Syria. Both Czar George I and Boulanger justified their actions by expressing concern for the Armenians and Assyrians, but their posturing worried the British. When the French landed 2,000 marines in Latakia and Beirut, Russian troops began to move closer to the border. Seeking to ward off a crisis, British Prime Minister Salisbury dispatched a British fleet to the area and offered to mediate an end to the crisis. Seeking to carve out their own sphere in the Ottoman Empire, Italy also sent a fleet of warships to the island of Rhodes.

The Rome Conference, ostensibly to protect the Armenian, Assyrian, and Greek populations of the Ottoman Empire from persecution, was in actuality a partition of the Ottoman Empire into spheres of influence. While the majority-Armenian and Assyrian areas of the Empire were placed under Russian ‘protection’ and Armenian Cilicia was occupied by France, much of the Middle East was parceled out. Britain occupied vast swaths of Mesopotamia, as far north as Kirkuk, as well as Jaffa and Haifa in Palestine. France occupied not just Beirut, but the whole of Lebanon and much of Palestine. Jerusalem was placed under joint Anglo-Russo-French occupation, and Italy occupied not just Rhodes but the Anatolian coast near it. The Ottoman Empire was not consulted on any of these decisions but was forced to agree as four Great Powers landed their troops and occupied what they had each claimed as their sphere of influence.

The Rome Conference ended the massacres of Armenians, though killings of Assyrians and Greeks in Ottoman-controlled territory continued sporadically until the end of the decade. The impact of the conference extended well beyond merely protecting Middle East Christians. Britain used their new Palestinian protectorate to cement their control over the Suez Canal and the entire Sinai peninsula, and even dispatched several expeditions that brought the northern reaches of the Hejaz into the British sphere. France empowered the Maronite Christians with the creation of the Mount Lebanon Protectorate (an important precursor to the modern nation of Israel-Lebanon). Russia used its sphere of influence to lay the groundwork for an independent Armenian protectorate, establishing Armenian-language schools and an independent, Armenian court system. With German funds, a series of railroads were constructed into the occupied territories with the same rail gauge as the Russian system.

The Ottoman Empire would linger on for a few more decades, but the Rome Conference had effectively taken the Sick Man of Europe off of life support.”

“Why did Egypt avoid imperialism?”, discussion on Counterfactual.net
Started December 2018


MaroniteJew said: Egypt, along with Liberia and the ZAR, were the only African nations to avoid total imperialism. But the British had the Suez canal and a ton of vested interest in keeping Egypt friendly – why did Egypt not fall under British protectorate like, for example, Sokoto under the French or Ethiopia under the Italians?

TeleFox said: The key difference is that France also had a vested interest in Egypt and the Suez Canal, and Boulanger would never allow Britain to dominate Egypt. Not only was he a major nationalist and jingoist, but Egypt has such a strategic location that the other Mediterranean powers would never allow one nation to have total control over not just the Suez Canal but the Nile River as well.

SmasherofEmpires: It was more than just two rival powers – the Egyptian government never fell into crushing debt to the European banks, allowing the Khedive a degree of independence. If Isma’il had been more reckless in spending, or if he had gotten bogged down in a costly war in Ethiopia or against the Senussi, then he would be far more beholden to British and French creditors and then Egyptian independence would become essentially untenable. As it was, Egypt was still subject to a great deal of British influence, with Isma’il effectively forced to allow the British to set up protectorates in Sudan and the Suez Canal zone. Simply put, Egypt still had to make major concessions to the European powers to maintain even somewhat independent, because it was, while stronger than most African powers, still quite weak – weak enough to be unable to maintain control over the Sudan territories so that the British were able to march in and pry it out of Isma’il’s control.

VoxPopuli: Egypt wasn’t all that independent. As Smasher mentioned, Egypt was subject to a good deal of British influence, but the key was that Egypt was never occupied by a foreign army, never subject to invasive debt management councils, never forced under an official protectorate, and the Khedive was never forced to appoint European supervisors with broad prerogatives to his cabinet. In the long run, it worked out very well for Egypt, despite unofficially being in the British sphere. Egypt’s the second richest country in Africa, second only to France. I went there last summer, and the public transportation (railroads, highways, bus lines) were very well maintained and orderly. The school system ranks highly as well. So, it’s a case, in my view, of Egypt having enough of a good thing (foreign influence) to modernize and industrialize, but not too much (foreign domination) to be a weak protectorate of the British.

[1] TTL, George doesn’t get tuberculosis and therefore is in much better health.
 
France empowered the Maronite Christians with the creation of the Mount Lebanon Protectorate (an important precursor to the modern nation of Israel-Lebanon).
My god. In this timeline, Lebanon and Israel are actually Levantine in the old sense of the word, that is, essentially Europeans?

Seems to me like in this timeline, the Middle East and Egypt got off a lot better
 
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