New AH Timeline Possibility

I don't recall seeing a TL being done along these lines, and if so, I apologize, but here's my WI:

What if the Battle of Khalkin-Gol resulted in a larger war between the Soviet Union and Japan in 1939? Is there a POD that makes this possible? For example, on June 27, following large Japanese air strikes against Soviet positions, IJA HQ ordered the Kwangtung Army not to launch any more attacks - what if the order was to launch full-scale air raids?

If we can create a conflict, how does this impact WW2, both in Europe and the Pacific? My thought would be that while the Soviets had better equipment and more of it, the Japanese could bring more force to bear, theater wide, quicker than the Soviets could. A Japanese seizure of Vladisvostok and the Maritime Provinces would surely offset the local defeat that Zhukov would still have inflicted. But if the Japanese military is tied up in Siberia, are they able to launch a war against the US/UK? Do they even occupy French IndoChina? And if not, does the US stay out of the war?

I think there are a lot of ways one could go with a POD here, including a possible "German victory" TL - what do you guys think?
 
If the Japanese go all out on the offensive then they'll likely have local success early on however the Soviets will likely have pushed them out of Manchuria, Sakhalin and pssoibly China by 1941. The Japanese will not go to war with the WAllies in this TL unless they make peace very early on however America will still get involved in Europe, they were already in a quasi war in the Atlantic and it's only a matter of time. What might be interesting is that this could possibly butterfly out the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as whilst the Soviets will be victorious in the Far East Hitler will likely deduce that they can't open up a 2 front war.
 
I don't recall seeing a TL being done along these lines, and if so, I apologize, but here's my WI:

What if the Battle of Khalkin-Gol resulted in a larger war between the Soviet Union and Japan in 1939? Is there a POD that makes this possible? For example, on June 27, following large Japanese air strikes against Soviet positions, IJA HQ ordered the Kwangtung Army not to launch any more attacks - what if the order was to launch full-scale air raids?

If we can create a conflict, how does this impact WW2, both in Europe and the Pacific? My thought would be that while the Soviets had better equipment and more of it, the Japanese could bring more force to bear, theater wide, quicker than the Soviets could. A Japanese seizure of Vladisvostok and the Maritime Provinces would surely offset the local defeat that Zhukov would still have inflicted. But if the Japanese military is tied up in Siberia, are they able to launch a war against the US/UK? Do they even occupy French IndoChina? And if not, does the US stay out of the war?

I think there are a lot of ways one could go with a POD here, including a possible "German victory" TL - what do you guys think?


One of Tsouras' short stories in Rising Sun Victorious had a second Russo Japanese war although the fighting didn't really start in his story till the fall of 41 after the Russians where locked in with the Germans.

At Gol the Japanese got their asses handed to them by Zhukov and were highly impressed by the striking power and ferocity of the Red Army artillery and armor... they were very smart to not want to play anymore after that because they had almost no armored assets worthy of mention and their infantry relied on WW1 weapons and doctrine
 
Why didn't they modernize the army? Did the navy suck up all the updates?

because they didn't have a million deaths in ww1 to teach them Petain's lesson of fire conquers infantry occupies. they had the pre ww1 notion of superiority of infantry morale being dominent on the battlefield. their last experience prior to ww2 of serious warfare was against the Russians which was a battle they won not so much out of their own greatness but out of the failures of the Czar's system and officers so they never saw a need to improve themselves and fighting against the Chinese never inspired them to create a more modern army.
 
Here's sort of what I'm thinking in terms of major changes...I don't have it all thought out yet by any means, just some musings...the major problem is finding the right sequence of events to trigger a major conflict...however...

-2nd Russo-Japanese war shifts major Soviet forces east, and Japanese forces north.
-This slows down progress in China, and leaves Japan incapable of occupying Indochina or planning for a Pacific campaign (the "Go North" lobby wins the debate)
-Soviets are unable to invade Finland, due to major commitment in East. Additionally, Soviets do not occupy Eastern Poland or make demands on Bessarabia
-Soviets do not learn lessons from Finland, as they are able to tactically dominate Japan. However, Japan is able to bring greater forces to bear, and has superior logistics, so the war drags on
-No Soviet invasion of Finland = no Allied buildup to go into Norway = no German Nordic campaign = Scandanavian neutrality pact, although within German sphere of influence (realistic?)
-No Pearl Harbor = no declaration of war by Germany on the US = US can't drum up support for declaration of war, Lend Lease continues, undeclared belligerency in Atlantic continues
-No Pacific War = greater British/Anzac forces available = British victory in North Africa, or alternatively, greater losses in Greece/Crete (which would it be?)
-With Soviet forces engaged in the East, Barbarossa paradoxically enjoys LESS success in terms of PoWs. Germans still run out of steam in front of Moscow, but Soviets unable to decisively counterattack
-Soviets try to wind down war in the East, possibly making major concessions to Japan - Japanese wins hegemony over Mongolia, retains territorial gains on Soviet Pacific coast, Vladivostok is demilitarized, Japan wins resource concessions from Soviets (realistic?)
-Massive Soviet transfer of forces West in 1942, however, German 1942 campaign much more successful as Soviet reinforcements learned wrong lessons from Japanese conflict. German offensive conquers Caucasus, Stalingrad region, Soviet counteroffensive in Stalingrad region contained/defeated with heavy Soviet losses

Just some thoughts - I just got to thinking the other day about how significantly a Russo-Japanese war would change the face of WW2. I think the butterflies would be massive.
 
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