Probably, but the Ottomans would still control the largest oil reserves in the world, meaning those of OTL Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria and many other Middle Eastern countries, combind.
Neutral Ottoman Empire in WWI?
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Probably, but the Ottomans would still control the largest oil reserves in the world, meaning those of OTL Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria and many other Middle Eastern countries, combind.
They'd control the largest amount of oil, yes, however quite a bit of Arabia's oil was either not known about or thought to be smaller deposits until the 50's.
Cheap, but even still it generated large amounts of revenue.
I'd say the Ottoman Empire remaining neutral in WWI would result in the Ottomans surviving another decade if not two, with the rest being left up to butterflies. The Committee of Union and Progress by the end of the Second Balkan War had established a monopoly on power and was going forward with its largely secular/modernist agenda. Though it remains to be seen how that agenda would have turned out without the pressures of having to fight a massive war.
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Longer than that actually; the United States produced more oil than the entire Persian Gulf through the mid-60s (and not all of the Gulf would have been part of the Ottoman Empire - Persia/Iran being the most notable).
As for the Ottomans, a lot would depend on how they play their cards during WW2. They would not have been anywhere near the oil juggernaut they are now, being outdone by the US, USSR, Venezuela, and Persia, and maybe the DEI and Romania depending on how good the Ottomans are at exploiting the finds they do make. But they had enough to matter if most of it was being sold to Germany. Depending on how hostile relations with the Soviets are, they might side with the Axis outright (see also: Finland). That would be...interesting. OTOH, maybe Britain's been propping them up as a counterwieght and they end up more supportive of the Allies. Lots of room for intrigue either way.
katchen
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If as in OTL, Germany becomes desperate in 1917 and turns Lenin loose in Russia to foment revolution, the result of a Communist revolution could well be what we had initially OTL, which is the temporary breakup of the Russian Empire. Only with an intact Ottoman Empire, the result might well be Pal Tuanianist and the Ottomans taking the Transcaucasus and Turkestan from the Russians and perhaps keeping them against the Red Army in the 1920s.
And just because the Ottoman Empire starts off the war neutral dosen't mean that it stays that way. The Ottomans might well join the Allies against the Central Powers by 1917, just as Romania did.
And just because the Ottoman Empire starts off the war neutral dosen't mean that it stays that way. The Ottomans might well join the Allies against the Central Powers by 1917, just as Romania did.
let's see... the OE isnt exactly in a bad position. the miserable performance in ww1 was caused by constant war the decade before, modernizations were already on the way.
asuming ww1 goes as planned and ends with a russian revolution there's the opportunity to get some "independant" buffer states in the caucasus between the empire and russia. fighting the bolsheviks for a short time has to be worth some + points with the exhausted allies.
the following developements depend on rule of law, political stability, education. mostly. avoiding war destruction and following colonialism/rebuilding would have a big effect. with earlier spread of medicine and sanitation the turkish/arab population boom could start earlier. today the OE could easily have 150 million + people, and if you avoid decades long autocratic rule it would be a a major player in world politics while all other old powers slowly disintegrate. glory for the house of osman!
that only leaves the question: would it still be called "empire"? there's no empires around nowadays. except japan. ... maybe.
asuming ww1 goes as planned and ends with a russian revolution there's the opportunity to get some "independant" buffer states in the caucasus between the empire and russia. fighting the bolsheviks for a short time has to be worth some + points with the exhausted allies.
the following developements depend on rule of law, political stability, education. mostly. avoiding war destruction and following colonialism/rebuilding would have a big effect. with earlier spread of medicine and sanitation the turkish/arab population boom could start earlier. today the OE could easily have 150 million + people, and if you avoid decades long autocratic rule it would be a a major player in world politics while all other old powers slowly disintegrate. glory for the house of osman!
that only leaves the question: would it still be called "empire"? there's no empires around nowadays. except japan. ... maybe.
today the OE could easily have 150 million + people, and if you avoid decades long autocratic rule it would be a a major player in world politics while all other old powers slowly disintegrate. glory for the house of osman!
While it'd be over 100 million, I don't think it'd be that high, probably more like 115-120 million.
today we have:
turkey: 75
syria: 22
iraq: 31
lebanon: 4
israel: 8
jordan: 6
so that's already 146 million
i correct my initial estimate: 180+.
no war dead, no delayed developement, no exodus due to decades of instability, earlier sanitation and so on.
edit: i wonder what would happen to bosnia once yugoslavia goes down.
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today we have:
turkey: 75
syria: 22
iraq: 31
lebanon: 4
israel: 8
jordan: 6
so that's already 146 million
i correct my initial estimate: 180+.
no war dead, no delayed developement, no exodus due to decades of instability, earlier sanitation and so on.
edit: i wonder what would happen to bosnia once yugoslavia goes down.
That's the thing though, when talking about an Ottoman Empire that industrializes and gets higher living standards you can't really use modern population numbers since in such a scenario, with an earlier economic upliftment you get slowed down population growth, and that's on top of a much smaller than present population.
And presumably a non-Israeli Palestine isn't going to attract very much immigration
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Grey Wolf
It'd probably get a few hundred thousand as, aside from the hardcore Jews, about half of Israel actually is pretty good land.
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Are the Ottomans going to allow immigration on that kind of scale, or do you mean other Arabs move to settle there, just shifting the population numbers around?
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
It'd probably be 60/40 internal/external immigration; the Ottomans actually did accept alot of immigrants, or rather refugees in the late 19th and early years of the 20th century, hence why you have Circassian populations spread across Anatolia and the Levant among others IOTL.
The nastiness that happened at the time would not happen without WWI as the factors that lead to it would not arise.
Yeah, the Ottomans would still probably try to bring Armenians to re-settle in northern Syria in order to make the region more diverse and thus less susceptible to Arab nationalism, which the Ottomans feared no matter what. Istambul probably would, even in case of neutrality, still lose the Hedjaz, Asir and (formal) control over Yemen by 1920. But in case of the Armenians, without trying to keep the war effort going, Istambul can afford to make it a very orderly affair, without any notable civilian deaths.
Though speaking of losing control over the Hedjaz... Could the Ottoman sultan still claim the title of Caliph after losing Mecca and Medina?
Would oil ever get as expensive as in OTL 1970's? Without a State of Israel, there won't be an oil embargo over any Arab-Israeli war.
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