That depends on who is in a position to enforce the concessions.
After all, the Ottomans might grow rich selling to both sides and the winners might be too bloodied to enforce their ideas.
Neutral Ottoman Empire in WWI, WWI ends similarly
- Thread starter Jiraiyathegallant
- Start date
That depends on who is in a position to enforce the concessions.
After all, the Ottomans might grow rich selling to both sides and the winners might be too bloodied to enforce their ideas.
At first they would be blooded, but eventually they would be in a position to enforce the demands/claims whatever. If they too choose though.
What Italy wants is in possession of A-H, maybe and i just say maybe, the major pressure due to the absence of another player on the CP side, make Vienna swallow the idea to give some land to Italy and so their remain neutral (and favoring the CP) and so we have now two power who don't fight this version of WWI and one can suppose that they compensate each others.
Cook
Banned
90% of Russia’s wheat exports went via the Dardanelles, when these were blocked, so was most the bulk of Russia’s capacity to earn foreign capital. Remove Ottoman Turkey from the war and you probably wouldn’t have had either Russian revolution.
Paul MacQ
Donor
You could see a better performance by AH help things along for the Central Powers, as mentioned in the great start Wiking did in
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=174905&page=8
Central Powers holding onto a large chuck of Galacia in 1915 about 800,000 less casualties because Conrad is not a complete idiot. Meaning AH has not lost about 1/3 of its food production half of it's Horse breading lands and most of 1500 locomotives. Less demand of the Germans on the Eastern Front and as a Side note the terrible duo Hindenburg and Crazy L (Ludendorff) not in the getting the Limelight they did.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=174905&page=8
Central Powers holding onto a large chuck of Galacia in 1915 about 800,000 less casualties because Conrad is not a complete idiot. Meaning AH has not lost about 1/3 of its food production half of it's Horse breading lands and most of 1500 locomotives. Less demand of the Germans on the Eastern Front and as a Side note the terrible duo Hindenburg and Crazy L (Ludendorff) not in the getting the Limelight they did.
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NOT IN their territory, but the approaches are quite clear, so its easy to interdict traderoutes - and there would not be many passenger liners with prominent US citizent underway to Odessa...
BlondieBC
Banned
They also wanted Tunisia and Malta. They have claims to SE France that is about the same age as A-L. Corsica would be nice.
But yes, the CP likely has to have A-H give some concessions to enter the war.
Interestingly enough, Russia still collapsed due to lack of food even without exporting due to lack of manpower and animalpower used on the front. So if the war last as long as OTL, which will take another POD, then the Tsar may still well lose power.
Yes, it will make the blockade loser. And if the Ottomans insist on following treaties, it will be very much loser. The Ottomans have an easy way to punish the UK for breaking international law by shutting the straights. A lot depends on what these ATL Ottoman leaders want.
BlondieBC
Banned
Unlikely since they don't have enough farmers. If you remove 5-10 million men and 1 million plus animals from the fields, a lot less food is grown. It is more likely the Tsar keeps the food at home to feed his people, but Nickie could decide odd things. I see him demanding French loans, which are really UK loans to Russia via France.
And the loan issue with UK running out of money is a critical one, with a second POD that still gives a long war. Italy cost the UK over 2 billion in loans, Russia likely sucks cash even faster. So for example, if we assume 3 billion USD in loans to Russia with the UK 1917 burn rate of 75 million USD, the UK runs out of money 9-10 months faster than OTL or about July 1916.
Now there are a lot of reason the CP likely lose in 1915 without a second POD, but I could write you a TL where the CP wins in a "reverse butterfly" type situation. It would take the UK feeling safer and making a cold calculation to train its army more until it was "fully ready" and let the Russian bear the brunt. We can then just barely get the CP through 1915 at about OTL results (plus or minus 50 miles on the east). Then in 1916, Conrad does not attack Italy (too weak). Germany does worse in the West early in the year, but France/UK are unable to take advantage because of running out of supplies in the second half of the year. We then slide into a cold peace where everyone is too weak to launch the Grand offensive in 1917. It also helps if the blockade is much weaker due to Ottoman profiteering.
But some odd scenarios aside, the CP lose before Russia collapses in over 95% of ATL where the Ottomans stay neutral.
And Lenin is a long shot in all ATL and was a long shot in OTL.
Yes but the CP giving Italy piece of France is good only if the CP wins and without the Ottoman things look not real good; plus the OP want that the war ending as OTL (very difficult), so the only thing that come in mind is to compensate the absence of a member of the CP with the absence of a member of the entente and a A-H more pressed than OTL can fold to Berlin pressure and sign a treaty with Italy.
BlondieBC
Banned
Agreed Italy is the easiest POD. I think a neutral Italy might be enough. With Italy and the Ottomans neutral, the UK blockade might be very ineffective. Not to mention Bulgaria and Romania will import a ton of war materials to resell.
Another easy POD would be a blunder by the Entente, which I gave the easiest one with the UK being more passive and copying the Napoleonic "We pay, continental allies bleed model". If the war is going better, we might well see slower conscription, slower transition to wartime economy, or just the UK waiting until 1916 for its first offensive to be launched with 40+ UK divisions.
The Balkans have some potential if we can still get Bulgaria in the war (far from a given) and perhaps Greece is neutral. Even with Italy in the war, there is a lot of coast line in Greece, Ottoman Empire and Romania.
Or we can pick a POD where the Central powers do much better. For example, if you take one of Wiking two main TL, and add this POD to them (neutral ottomans), you might well get a war that goes deep into 1917 or 1918.
After that, I think we are down to multiple POD's that could add up to the desired result. UK is late to war by few weeks combined with Russia attacking Sweden bringing them into the war. No USW combined with much loser blockade.