Neutral Italy

The POD is that FDR agrees to go along with a League of Nations sponsored oil embargo of Italy following the invasion of Ethiopia. Mussolini is overthrown. The new government does not want to antagonize other nations. So it does not make an alliance with Hitler. Following the fall of France, Germany invades Italy, but Commonwealth troops arrive in time. Italy becomes a quagmire. Even the arrival of US troops in November 1942, doesn't help much. In September 1943, the invasion of Normandy happens. In July of 1944, the WAllies surround Berlin and move into take Warsaw and Prague, meeting Soviet troops as the do. On August 6, ( VE Day) Germany surrenders. On November 6, 1944, the Soviets declare war on Japan and invade Manchukuo. In January 1945, following the Holliday season, the WAllied European veterans arrive in the Pacific Theater. The bombing and naval campaign against Japan become more intense. The conquest of Iwo Jima and Okinawa are much easier. Herohito surrenders on August 3, 1945. The Soviets have occupied China. Jiang's government flees to Taiwan in 1946. There are no angry calls of who lost China This makes thing easier on Truman. The PRC is a Soviet satellite. There is no Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution. The Soviets encourage Deng Xioping as he makes China less dependent on Soviet aid. There is no playing the China Card. Reagan opens relations with China as American corporations eager to cash in on the lucrative China trade lobby him. Yes Reagan is still president from 1981 -1989. This has very little effect on the US. It does not change the line up of US Presidents. The other place where this has an impact is in Europe. Poland is divided between East and West Polands, until they vote to reunite in 1990. Czechoslovakia ends in 1945. There is a not so velvet divorce, as Soviet occupied Slovakia breaks away. West Poland and the Czech Republic are the front line NATO nations. They are home to most of the US military bases. If you are the child of a German and an member of the American military, you probably have a different heritage. East Germany is surrounded by free nations. The Soviets have to supply their ally and their bases there by ship. Which creates another financial burden on the USSR.
 
What happened to fascism in Italy? Was Mussolini replaced by another fascist or was it a democratic takeover?

Also, what happens to Albania, Libya, Eritrea and Ethiopia. My own thoughts? Allied intervention to save Italy probably comes at a cost, and that would be, at a minimum, the independence of Ethiopia.
 
What happened to fascism in Italy? Was Mussolini replaced by another fascist or was it a democratic takeover?

Also, what happens to Albania, Libya, Eritrea and Ethiopia. My own thoughts? Allied intervention to save Italy probably comes at a cost, and that would be, at a minimum, the independence of Ethiopia.

It could be a democratic takeover. It would be Anti Fascist. Ethiopia would be independent. They would leave Albania alone. I doubt they would give independence to Libya or Eritrea. Decolonization was a rare idea in Europe at that time.
 
It could be a democratic takeover. It would be Anti Fascist. Ethiopia would be independent. They would leave Albania alone. I doubt they would give independence to Libya or Eritrea. Decolonization was a rare idea in Europe at that time.

I think it's far more likely that Balbo or someone like him takes over.
 
Long breath and........go:

- Ok FDR agree with the oil embargo, nice...unfortunely the British and the French goverment had other ideas as, and people always seem to forget that, they basically give their agreement to the invasion when Mussolini asked their permission (otherwise he had not attempted it). London and Paris don't give a damn about Abyssinia and they want Italy in their anti-german front.

- Damn this is a butterfly massacre, Italy non a patner of Germany in this period create an immense series of changes. From the Spanish civil war (the logistical and monetary help of Italy was a big factor in Franco victory), to the Anshluss and the SUdetenland crisis (someone that dislike Hitler will try to oppose this move...expecially the first).
Even if anything goes as OTL, the invasion of France can have a very different as ITTL the Germans need to cover their south front and anything used there can't be used for Fall Gelb (and OTL they basically used everything included the kitchen sink).
Germany attacking Italy will go...not well the alps and the mountain fortification make look the 'Maginot Line' an easy target.
Regarding the Pacific front, with the Royal Navy not busy in the mediterrean as OTL...things will not look rosy for Japan.
 
Where is the Neutral part for Italy again? They form some sort of Balkan bloc or something after the war with the monarchists and fascists there?
 
Long breath and........go:

- Ok FDR agree with the oil embargo, nice...unfortunely the British and the French goverment had other ideas as, and people always seem to forget that, they basically give their agreement to the invasion when Mussolini asked their permission (otherwise he had not attempted it). London and Paris don't give a damn about Abyssinia and they want Italy in their anti-german front.

- Damn this is a butterfly massacre, Italy non a patner of Germany in this period create an immense series of changes. From the Spanish civil war (the logistical and monetary help of Italy was a big factor in Franco victory), to the Anshluss and the SUdetenland crisis (someone that dislike Hitler will try to oppose this move...expecially the first).
Even if anything goes as OTL, the invasion of France can have a very different as ITTL the Germans need to cover their south front and anything used there can't be used for Fall Gelb (and OTL they basically used everything included the kitchen sink).
Germany attacking Italy will go...not well the alps and the mountain fortification make look the 'Maginot Line' an easy target.
Regarding the Pacific front, with the Royal Navy not busy in the mediterrean as OTL...things will not look rosy for Japan.

Thanks for this - I fully agree.

a few Details

A Wehrmacht quagmired in Italy won't likely Support any Notion of attacking Russia - Italy is a full effort not a Corps sized force used to Support Italy in Africa as OTL.

NO war with italy = no war on the Balkans

No Taranto raid = no plans for Pearl

.... too many butterflies to kill them all.

A Scenario where old Mousy is ousted probably leads to a much more restrained Germany - same Goals but more reluctant Approach.
 
Why would Hitler invade Italy?

As a matter of fact, a neutral Italy (depending on German coal and oil, like Switzerland) is a bonus.

Italy can produce military equipment for Germany by the ton and no fear of being bombed. Like Switzerland did.

Ivan
 
Taking it a bit further:

Germany could have created a security zone.

If we really look at it, It was not Hitler's goal to occupy Western Europe per se.

It was his goal to eliminate Russia (and the slavs, Jews and everything else) but it was all in the East.

If this is semi-correct, Germany could have offered France a decent peace agreement and created a neutral France (with a leaning towards Germany of course).

Combine this with a neutral Italy and Germany have a security zone in the west:

- France
- Italy
- Switzerland
- Portugal
- Spain
- Sweden

North Africa will be closed to Britain IF Vichy can hold it together.

It makes a 2nd front very difficult for Britain and there is no incentive for US suddenly.

... and Barbarossa will look different

Ivan
 
If Germany does not invade Italy ITTL does that mean there is invasion of France in 1942? There is no North Africa campaign and the Allies would want to put the American forces to work somewhere
 
If Germany does not invade Italy ITTL does that mean there is invasion of France in 1942? There is no North Africa campaign and the Allies would want to put the American forces to work somewhere

Difficult, the US (and the British) basically used the African campaign to 'train' their troops and trying a direct invasion so early can become a disaster.
Italian neutrality will cause serious change even for Barbarossa, as without any other front Stalin will be more worried about Germany move and maybe don't dismiss any proof of imminent Nazi attack (not a certain but still more probable than OTL), and naturally no Greece campaign. This is good even for Germany as no drain of the Afrika corps and of Greece occupation (Yugoslavia can still be invaded).

Regarding the different president, well take for example Eisenowher, with the British in a much much better position (in any sense) than OTL they can pretend that one of them will lead any invasion of the continent and this mean that Ike will not be so famous.
I doubt that the URSS will grab so much than OTL in this situation and a much less menacing Soviet Union will change a lot American political landscape
 

nbcman

Donor
Barring Germany driving through Yugoslavia, a German invasion via the Alps would involve the best defensive units and terrain for the Italians while neutralizing the Nazi's advantage of mobility.

Why would the Germans decide to attack a neutral and non-antagonistic Italy anyhow? The Germans would be smart to treat the Italians as they treated the Swiss and Swedes - trading partners. But the entire scenario in the OP strains belieavability. The Soviets overrunning ALL of China not just the Japanese occupied areas without the WAllies batting an eye - and without the CCP joining with the KMT and the other warlords to fight another invader as they did against Japan???
 
The POD is that FDR agrees to go along with a League of Nations sponsored oil embargo of Italy following the invasion of Ethiopia. Mussolini is overthrown.

Difficult.
Italy in that time was a frugal country,so a more severe embargo not change much.
Furthermore the embargo of 1936 joined very much the Italian peoples because was see as a injustice.
I think that for your scenario is better that Mussolini is shot by a lucky opposer in 1930-31,or have some type of accident (for example a airplane crash).
The leadership switch to a moderate fascist,as Italo Balbo, or the more moderates Dino Grandi or Luigi Federzoni.
Italy not invades Etiophia and focuses on Lybia colonization.
Is still probable a intervention anti-communist in Spain,but none alliance with Germany and Japan.
UK,France and Italy are still friends.
If you want Balbo as new Italian Prime Minister remember that he hated Germany,so with Balbo is probable not the Italian neutrality,but a declaration of war to nazi Germany together at UK and France.
 
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UK,France and Italy are still friends.
If you want Balbo as new Italian Prime Minister remember that he hated Germany,so with Balbo is probable not the Italian neutrality,but a declaration of war to nazi Germany together at UK and France.

Interesting. I've witnessed/participated in several wwII board games where Italy was in the Allied camp at the start. It left the German players with the problem of which to knock out first, Italy or France? The trick was you often did not have time to do both, & if the USSR is not knocked down swiftly the German player loses. So, frequetly whichever nation was not attacked first might survive into 1942, creating a nastier problem for Germany.
 
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