Netherlands New Guinea

[La Rouge Beret]

I am after a POD for the Netherlands New Guinea to remain independent of Indonesia after 1949.

If the Netherlands New Guinea attained independence, what do you think their international relationships would be like with Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia etc?

Just an interesting POD I would like to explore...

 

[pompejus]

The first thing you need is to avoid Indonesia invading the moment New Guinea was independent. Actualy that would be the second thing you need. First you need to avoid Indonesia invading while New Guinea is still Dutch. You probably need some international support for New Guinean independence, which lacked OTL. Basicly the rest of the world abandoned New Guinea and Indonesian imperialism ruled the day.

If the rest of the world (and the USA will be the deciding factor) would actualy support an independence Western New Guinea, an independent New Guinea could happen. I doubt Indonesia would attack if the USA decides to support the Netherlands. So a couple of decades later (80's or 90's would be my guess) New Guinea becomes independent (assuming they don't prefer to remain Dutch) and at that point the relationship between New Guinea will remain a cautious hostility, while with Eastern New Guinea and Australia it probably would very friendly. It will need these countries to remain independent. Well at least until Suharto dies.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

See I don't know whether I want over international support, or that there is covert support and the Netherlands gives Indonesia a local smack down for lack of a better term.

Plus I would be interested to see the longer term impact of an independent Netherlands New Guinea and if we would see a movement towards integration between West and East New Guinea.

 

[MattII]

You'd probably have to go back and stop the Dutch from taking it in the first place.

 

[Onkel Willie]

There were some fears in the US State Department that Sukarno was a quasi-communist anyway, and so letting him have Papua New Guinea wasn't supported by everyone. OTOH, it was feared that not letting Indonesia have it would surely drive it into the communist bloc. You need to have the first train of thought prevail over the second. Once that happens, the US will support the Dutch against Indonesia and the latter will have to back off.

 

[Cook]

I am after a POD for the Netherlands New Guinea to remain independent of Indonesia after 1949.

Fully independent? Because I think the possibility of the Dutch half of the island being combined with PNG as a UN trust Territory could have had some real potential for international support.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Perhaps... we can see a diplomatic push by Australia and the Netherlands to create pathway for integration between the two sides. Essentially the Vanuatu solution.

It would be fascinating to see how the country would develop.

 

[katchen]

It WAS a pity that Dutch New Guinea was not given over to be part of the Australian trust territory at the end of WWII. In fact it was a pity that the Netherlands did not give the Moluccas, West Timor and Flores (which are Christian) and Northern Sulawesi (which is also Christian) and Borneo independence separate from Java-Sumatra Indonesia. They deserved better than being submerged under a sea of Muslims (and in many cases forced to convert to Islam).

 

[pompejus]

It WAS a pity that Dutch New Guinea was not given over to be part of the Australian trust territory at the end of WWII. In fact it was a pity that the Netherlands did not give the Moluccas, West Timor and Flores (which are Christian) and Northern Sulawesi (which is also Christian) and Borneo independence separate from Java-Sumatra Indonesia. They deserved better than being submerged under a sea of Muslims (and in many cases forced to convert to Islam).

You can't blame the Dutch for it. The Dutch actualy wanted such a thing as an independent Moluccas and West New Guinea; they were forced by the international community and the USA to hand it all over to Indonesia.

 

[orangnumpanglewat]

You can't blame the Dutch for it. The Dutch actualy wanted such a thing as an independent Moluccas and West New Guinea; they were forced by the international community and the USA to hand it all over to Indonesia.

Actually no. The Dutch wanted a commonwealth of quasi-independent states with err... "closer ties" with the Netherlands. Here you can see the Dutch proposals in 1945 and 1946. The van Mook idea of a federation IMHO is a great one. The top official of the NICA, HJ van Mook, Charles van der Plas, and the Javanese Abdul Kadir were actually sympathetic of Indonesian independence, however circumstances, that being the republican revolution, driven the federal idea into nothing more than a divide and conquer strategy.

Now, Christians were not submerged in a sea of Muslims. The second prime minister of Indonesia was Christian, so were many of the new nation's generals. The nationalists actually fought hard to make sure the newborn republic did not become an Islamic one. Suppression against Christians is actually a new phenomenon here, and not one that's going to stay. I have to stress that the Indonesian nationalist movement is not an Islamic one. We actually had to put down revolts trying to establish an Islamic country, look up Negara Islam Indonesia.

The thing is both the Dutch and the republicans did not have plans to partition Indonesia in the first place, be it by religion or race. Heck, the idea to separate New Guinea only appeared in 1947. The Colonial Minister of the Netherlands faced outrage when the politicans knew they made peace with the evuuuul Soekarno with the Linggadjati agreement. Spontaneously Colonial Minister Jan Anne Jonkman said that part of the agreement meant that New Guinea was to be separated for Dutch settlement. Then the politicans pushed for it and made it unilaterally amended.

Come on guys, this is the early Cold War, realpolitik is abound.

To make this succeed, you need to make the Republic already in the commie camp, then there's no reason to appease our imperi- I mean nationalist revanchism.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Perhaps we could've avoided JFK presidency of USA ? He was the one who threw Papua to Indonesia in order to reverse the failtastic outcome of American support for PRRI.

 

[orangnumpanglewat]

Perhaps we could've avoided JFK presidency of USA ? He was the one who threw Papua to Indonesia in order to reverse the failtastic outcome of American support for PRRI.

PRRI kinda looked certain to win really, and far less commie. You can't blame him really.

Oh yes, one thing to add. Papuan nationalism wasn't really a thing until Papua became part of Indonesia and got treated like a colony.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

PRRI-Permesta was contemporareous with Ike's term.

 

[thekingsguard]

Maybe merging it with the Aussie held half might be more feasible?

 

[MattII]

What about a colonial trade, Britain sells North Borneo and gains Eastern New Guinea?

 

[La Rouge Beret]

What about a colonial trade, Britain sells North Borneo and gains Eastern New Guinea?

That is certainly interesting.

A question I have always wanted to know is how an independent West Papua could develop into a stable democratic government.

Essentially how do you take your citizens whose allegiance may be to the tribe and get them to recognise a greater allegiance?

 

[Simreeve]

A question I have always wanted to know is how an independent West Papua could develop into a stable democratic government.

Essentially how do you take your citizens whose allegiance may be to the tribe and get them to recognise a greater allegiance?

Education before independence. It seems to have worked, more or less, in the east of the island.

 

[area11]

What about a colonial trade, Britain sells North Borneo and gains Eastern New Guinea?

Seems rather unlikely North Borneo was far more important to Britain than New Guinea.