Netherlands in the Central Powers

Any possible projections on how economically powerful the Netherlands would be with Belgium back in the fold with possibly the Congo to boot?
 
Any possible projections on how economically powerful the Netherlands would be with Belgium back in the fold with possibly the Congo to boot?
Potentialy very powerful. In actuality not so much, especialy since we must assume the loss of Indonesia and the other colonies and the fact that the Netherlands must occupy a large part of the country (basicly half) that most likely does not want to be part of the Netherlands. Occupation costs money.
 
If the Dutch come in the HSF could station powerful fleet units in Antwerp to be a direct threat to the Thames estuary and a lot closer to the dover narrows for raiding the channel.
Antwerp a pistol pointed at the heart of England!

Unfortunately the HSF wouldn't be able to do very much more in the southern end of the North Sea or the English Channel because of the Dover Patrol which in August 1914 had two destroyer flotillas and a submarine flotilla (IIRC) and I do remember correctly that they were backed up by 4 squadrons of pre-dreadnoughts based in the English Channel and the Dover coast artillery.

IOTL the Germans had the Flanders Flotilla of destroyers and submarines operating from Bruges via Zeebrugge and Ostend. ITTL they might be backed up by some light cruisers based at Antwerp. Therefore there might be more battles between the Flanders Flotilla, Dover Patrol and Harwich Force, but I think the Royal Navy would win most of them.

OTOH its likely ITTL that if the Germans still loose the Battle of the Marne they do better in the Race to the Sea and end up in control of the Pas de Calais as far Abeville and Amiens. That would make it a lot harder for the Royal Navy to stop U-boats using the Strait of Dover.
 
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What if the Netherlands says no to Germany's proposal like Belgium did in OTL. How would this affect the war and how would a German controlled Netherlands be like. Obviousely it wouldn't be pleasant, but would the Germans be committed to puppeting HOlland or outright annexing it? I'm curious as I visited the Dutch Resistance Museum on my trip to Europe and was fascinated by occupation life.
I think that at least the Netherlands and Belgium would be forced to join the Zollverein, which Luxembourg was already a member of IOTL.
 
Interesting idea. A minor effect of the dutch entering the war might be no ANZAC forces for Europe in 1915 if the war isn't over by then, because in all likelihood they would be sent to British New Guinea to fight the Dutch.
Actually it would be a moderate to major effect. All the forces used for the naval attack on the Dardanelles and the Gallipoli landings would be used for an invasion of Java and Sumatra in 1915. The forces the Turks used to defend Gallipoli could be transferred to another front. They have the Caucasus, Mesopotamia and Sinai to choose from.
 
A good reason for the Dutch to stay out of the war.
Which is in the context of the question I was answering is irrelevant. That is...
What if the Netherlands says no to Germany's proposal like Belgium did in OTL. How would this affect the war and what would a German controlled Netherlands be like? Obviously it wouldn't be pleasant, but would the Germans set up a puppet government in Holland or annex it outright? I'm curious as I visited the Dutch Resistance Museum on my trip to Europe and was fascinated by occupation life.
But having re-read the thread it seems to me that the Dutch needed to be more pro-German for years before World War One for the OP to happen and ideally had a secret agreement with Germany allowing the German Army to cross Dutch territory in the event of a war between Germany and France. A Dutch government that pro-German might have joined the Zollverein well before the Great War broke out.

With a POD of 1900 is that feasible? I don't know anything about Dutch-German relations between 1900 and 1914.
 
Potentialy very powerful. In actuality not so much, especialy since we must assume the loss of Indonesia and the other colonies and the fact that the Netherlands must occupy a large part of the country (basicly half) that most likely does not want to be part of the Netherlands. Occupation costs money.

Well the assumption is that if the Netherlands can reannex Beligum and grab the Congo, then the Central Powers have won the war and the DEI stays Dutch.

so it would be all 3 acquisitions plus the national borders.
 
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Antwerp a pistol pointed at the heart of England!

Unfortunately the HSF wouldn't be able to do very much more in the southern end of the North Sea or the English Channel because of the Dover Patrol which in August 1914 had two destroyer flotillas and a submarine flotilla (IIRC) and I do remember correctly that they were backed up by 4 squadrons of pre-dreadnoughts based in the English Channel and the Dover coast artillery.

IOTL the Germans had the Flanders Flotilla of destroyers and submarines operating from Bruges via Zeebrugge and Ostend. ITTL they might be backed up by some light cruisers based at Antwerp. Therefore there might be more battles between the Flanders Flotilla, Dover Patrol and Harwich Force, but I think the Royal Navy would win most of them.

OTOH its likely ITTL that if the Germans still loose the Battle of the Marne they do better in the Race to the Sea and end up in control of the Pas de Calais as far Abeville and Amiens. That would make it a lot harder for the Royal Navy to stop U-boats using the Strait of Dover.

The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything. Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
 
Which is in the context of the question I was answering is irrelevant. That is...But having re-read the thread it seems to me that the Dutch needed to be more pro-German for years before World War One for the OP to happen and ideally had a secret agreement with Germany allowing the German Army to cross Dutch territory in the event of a war between Germany and France. A Dutch government that pro-German might have joined the Zollverein well before the Great War broke out.

With a POD of 1900 is that feasible? I don't know anything about Dutch-German relations between 1900 and 1914.
The Dutch government was already Pro-German. I have no idea how negotiations would have gone to grant the Heer access to Dutch territory, as that did not happen IOTL, but I can only assume that with Flanders and some colonial possessions, they'd be satisfied. They would not commit any forces to the Western Front, so their only losses in the war would come from direct attack on the Netherlands, which would happen only in their colonies.

They may prescribe to the train of thought that the war would end within six months of it starting, as all of the majors had, and ITTL, it is likely that that would be true.
 
The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything. Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
Probably not any more than they actually did.

IOTL the original Channel Force, which was based in the English Channel, and consisted of 4 battle squadrons (5th to 8th IIRC) of pre-dreadnoughts was broken up and some of the ships went to Gallipoli. If there was a serious threat of light or even heavy forces breaking into the Channel then we probably don't have the 2 attempts to force the Dardanelles with old battleships.

In the first half of 1916 the threat of the HSF operating in the southern North Sea did lead to the setting up of a new Channel Force consisting of the 3rd Battle Squadron detached from the Grand Fleet. It had Dreadnought and the most modern pre-dreadnoughts. It was based in the Thames Estuary, IIRC at Sheerness. At the start of World War II the OTL Harwich force had a pair of new light cruisers and 2 of the Grand Fleet's 4 destroyer flotillas.

The 6th Destroyer Flotilla covering the Strait of Dover had 24 boats, but I wouldn't call the E and F classes shitty. They were as good or better than the contemporary German destroyers. In any case they would have the coast artillery guns of Dover defending them plus the Harwich Force and Channel Force would be speeding to their aid. Over time the forces at Dover were expanded and modernised and were detached from the Admiral of Patrols to become and independent command.

There were also the British submarines of OTL which were protecting that area, which I had not yet mentioned.

However, the coast of Norfolk and Suffolk would be a lot easier to raid and the German battle cruisers probably do that frequently to the great embarrassment of the Royal Navy.

That is where I think Britain's east coast shipping would be most vulnerable. IOTL the HSF used cruisers and destroyers to attack the Scandinavian convoys. ITTL they probably attack British convoys off the Norfolk coast. The raids would usually be by light cruisers and destroyers, but sometimes with the First Scouting Group which would go through the channel between the Frisian Islands and the mainland before turning into the North Sea south of Texel if it's deep enough.

However, in the longer term the Royal Navy would lay defensive minefields along the East Anglian coast to protect their coastal shipping from such attacks. At the start of Wold War II the Royal Navy laid a huge defensive minefield along the entire North Sea coast to prevent Kriegsmarine surface forces attacking its coastal shipping.
 
The Dutch government was already Pro-German. I have no idea how negotiations would have gone to grant the Heer access to Dutch territory, as that did not happen IOTL, but I can only assume that with Flanders and some colonial possessions, they'd be satisfied. They would not commit any forces to the Western Front, so their only losses in the war would come from direct attack on the Netherlands, which would happen only in their colonies.

They may prescribe to the train of thought that the war would end within six months of it starting, as all of the majors had, and ITTL, it is likely that that would be true.
In terms of territory I thought the Germans would offer the Dutch the British East Indies, i.e. Singapore, Malaya and British Borneo plus some islands in the West Indies.

My suggested expansion of the East Indies Squadron was in part so that the East Indies would hold out longer and/or divert a larger Entente force to capture them. However, the other part was to make it more feasible to launch a surprise invasion of the British East Indies. Plus the earlier the Dutch and Germans make their secret alliance the more time the Dutch have to plan the invasion. OTOH that also gives British Intelligence more time to discover the plan and strengthen the defences of the Far East.

If the agreement had been made years in advance of 1914 the Dutch would have had time to stockpile food and raw materials in case the war wasn't over by Christmas. Although they don't commit any forces to the Western Front they could do things like increase the capacity of their canals and more important for the Schlieffen Plan increase the capacity of the railway system over the route the German Army's troop trains would use.
 
In terms of territory I thought the Germans would offer the Dutch the British East Indies, i.e. Singapore, Malaya and British Borneo plus some islands in the West Indies.

My suggested expansion of the East Indies Squadron was in part so that the East Indies would hold out longer and/or divert a larger Entente force to capture them. However, the other part was to make it more feasible to launch a surprise invasion of the British East Indies. Plus the earlier the Dutch and Germans make their secret alliance the more time the Dutch have to plan the invasion. OTOH that also gives British Intelligence more time to discover the plan and strengthen the defences of the Far East.

If the agreement had been made years in advance of 1914 the Dutch would have had time to stockpile food and raw materials in case the war wasn't over by Christmas. Although they don't commit any forces to the Western Front they could do things like increase the capacity of their canals and more important for the Schlieffen Plan increase the capacity of the railway system over the route the German Army's troop trains would use.
Indeed. Germany would want the Congo to themselves, as the creation of Mittelafrika was one of the main goals for Germany in WW1, so the Dutch would need colonies in the East to compensate. If the Dutch can pull off their surprise attack and gain Malaysia and Singapore, that should be enough to satisfy them, when coupled with their gains in Europe.
 
The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything.
At the outbreak of war the Grand Fleet and Mediterranean had the 100 most modern destroyers organised into 5 flotillas, the 4 Patrol Flotillas including Dover had the next best and the oldest went to the Local Defence Flotillas.
Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
For all the good they did at Jutland (which was to provide decoys for the more valuable ships) I would nominate the 8 armoured cruisers of the 1st and 2nd Cruiser Squadrons. They were death traps when facing battle cruisers, but even a pair of them could cope with Blucher.
 
If this enables the Germans to win a quick and decisive victory in the west might Belgium be divided as follows. The Flemish speaking part becomes part of the Netherlands. The Walloon part is annexed by pro-German Luxembourg which was already in the Zollverein becomes a full member of the German Empire.

I think a Greater Luxembourg within the German Empire is feasible. The eastern part of Belgium had been part of the Duchy of Luxembourg, which was in the German Confederation before German unification and before that the territory that is now Belgium and Luxembourg had been in the Holy Roman Empire.
 
OTOH if the Belgians know that the Dutch will help the Germans, which in turn makes a German victory more likely how likely is it that the Belgian Government will think, "We can't beat them and resistance will be suicide for our nation so we had better join them," and allow free passage of the German Army through their territory too? The Germans would sweeten this by offering Belgium the French part of Flanders.
 
If this enables the Germans to win a quick and decisive victory in the west might Belgium be divided as follows. The Flemish speaking part becomes part of the Netherlands. The Walloon part is annexed by pro-German Luxembourg which was already in the Zollverein becomes a full member of the German Empire.

I think a Greater Luxembourg within the German Empire is feasible. The eastern part of Belgium had been part of the Duchy of Luxembourg, which was in the German Confederation before German unification and before that the territory that is now Belgium and Luxembourg had been in the Holy Roman Empire.
That would be an interesting scenario, but there were still worries of taking more Catholic, non-German territory in the German government. I think the most likely scenario is Wallonia becoming a German satellite state, with Luxembourg joining the German Empire.

If the Germans can gain a strip of land from Alsace to the English Channel as they wanted, then an expanded Duchy of Luxembourg may become more feasible.
OTOH if the Belgians know that the Dutch will help the Germans, which in turn makes a German victory more likely how likely is it that the Belgian Government will think, "We can't beat them and resistance will be suicide for our nation so we had better join them," and allow free passage of the German Army through their territory too? The Germans would sweeten this by offering Belgium the French part of Flanders.

If the Dutch secret alliance becomes common knowledge, as the German invasion of Belgium was common knowledge IOTL, then it may be seen as a futile effort to oppose the Germans in Belgium, which could cause Britain's entry to be delayed.

This would pretty much guarantee a German victory, as the distance from the Belgian border to Paris is not very large, and it would be the only distance that would need to be taken with force. This would serve to alienate the Dutch though, as they would not get their end of the bargain.
 
The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything. Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
It looks as if the Admiralty had made provision for the Germans operating in the Southern North Sea in armoured cruiser strength IOTL in the first place. This is the Royal Navy's armoured cruiser deployment in August 1914 from the copy of the British official history on the Naval History website.
  • 1st Cruiser Squadron, Mediterranean Fleet.
  • 2nd Cruiser Squadron, Grand Fleet.
  • 3rd Cruiser Squadron, Grand Fleet.
  • 4th Cruiser Squadron, America and West Indies Station in peace, but to the Grand Fleet in war.
  • 5th Cruiser Squadron, was assigned to the most important and exposed area in the Atlantic trade routes – that is, to the Mid-Atlantic area between the West Coast of Africa and Brazil, in which lay the converging points of the great southern trade.
  • 6th Cruiser Squadron, which consisted of four "Drakes", though intended to support the flotillas in the south part of the North Sea, had to be diverted to take the place of the 4th Squadron in the Grand Fleet.
  • 7th Cruiser Squadron also acted in Home Waters, the greater part of it being employed in place of the " Drakes " with the flotillas which guarded the southern part of the North Sea.
  • 9th Cruiser Squadron (for the 8th had no ships assigned to it) completed the protection of the great Southern and Mediterranean routes, its station being off the mouth of the Straits and covering the area Cape Finisterre-Azores-Madeira immediately north of the 5th Squadron in the Mid-Atlantic area.
  • 10th Cruiser Squadron, was to act in close connection with the Grand Fleet and to form what was known as the Northern Patrol – that is, the Patrol specially charged with exercising control of the trade route to Germany north-about.
  • 11th Cruiser Squadron, was to operate to the West of Ireland to cover the home terminals of the great Western trade routes.
  • 12th Cruiser Squadron, was to combine with the French cruisers in the approaches to the Channel, in accordance with the provisional arrangement which had been settled between the two Admiralty Staffs in October 1913.
Furthermore there was a French force in the English Channel.
All that remained at the northern bases was their 2nd Cruiser Squadron, composed of six " Gloires," an old type of armoured cruiser, and the flotillas which were to co-operate with the British in the combined defence of the Channel.
These ships were in position on August 3, and on the same afternoon Admiral Rouyer, with the French 2nd Cruiser Squadron, took up his position to guard the Straits of Dover.
 
The Dutch government IOTL was not unsympathetic towards Germany in 1914. For several reasons. In parts of the Dutch population the UK was hated as they had defeated the Boers in South Africa. The Dutch economy was, like it is today, closely linked to Germany. A little too close to the taste of the Entente. Unlike 1940 the Dutch army was capable of fighting wars. So it was very logical to assume that the Dutch would be involved in the war.

According to the Belgians the Dutch were not neutral enough and there were tensions after 1918. Only the threat of war in 1938 improved Belgian - Dutch relations.
 
So I won't comment on POD's to get the Dutch to enter the war, I can think of several and was already considering writing a TL.

My research had up till now been focused on the army that the Dutch would bring to the table.

Namely the field army consisting of:
-4 infantry div (75.000 men)
-mobile artillery corps
-a scout cavalry regiment (3.000 men)
-Dutch Marine Corps (2.000 men)

plus roughly 130.000 men in static fortress units.

OTL they managed to mobilise this army in 4 days, from sending out the order on the afternoon of July 31st to the morning of August 4th when the mobilization was complete. Without major problems.

However training and cohesion was lacking when compared to German or French forces. But comparable to the Belgian units. With a notable exception of the marines who were by any standard an elite and veteran force.

In OTL the first division was guarding the North Sea coast it would not have been utilized in any attack to the south. The other units were either already facing south or east towards Germany. If there had been an alliance between the Netherlands and Germany those forces would become available.

Also most of the static forces would be reorganized into taking over from the 1st Inf. Div. or released into new field units. That would however take some months for training and equipment upgrades.

So I was counting one A.K. of 3 Infantry Div. including the Cav. and Art. plus normal support units ready one August 4th. Which would be roughly twice the size of the a German A.K. because Dutch div. had 3 brigades instead of 2 in the German army. And a second AK sometime during the winter. A not insignificant reinforcement for the Germans.

But the main advantage to the Western front would have been the bypassing of Liege(Luik) and the near instantaneous fall of the fortress of Antwerp.

Assuming strategic surprise toward the Belgians, Antwerp was only really defensible from the east not from the North West, until after the flooding of the Wasa polders. In OTL the Belgian engineers took 16 days to prep the sluices and dykes necessary. Before that time this route was wide open.:eek:

Last but not least would be the significant amount of rolling stock the Dutch would supply and the massive amount of riverine transport. Including shorter and better transport routes to the front lines.

Yours

Von Axel
 
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