Any possible projections on how economically powerful the Netherlands would be with Belgium back in the fold with possibly the Congo to boot?
Potentialy very powerful. In actuality not so much, especialy since we must assume the loss of Indonesia and the other colonies and the fact that the Netherlands must occupy a large part of the country (basicly half) that most likely does not want to be part of the Netherlands. Occupation costs money.Any possible projections on how economically powerful the Netherlands would be with Belgium back in the fold with possibly the Congo to boot?
Antwerp a pistol pointed at the heart of England!If the Dutch come in the HSF could station powerful fleet units in Antwerp to be a direct threat to the Thames estuary and a lot closer to the dover narrows for raiding the channel.
I think that at least the Netherlands and Belgium would be forced to join the Zollverein, which Luxembourg was already a member of IOTL.What if the Netherlands says no to Germany's proposal like Belgium did in OTL. How would this affect the war and how would a German controlled Netherlands be like. Obviousely it wouldn't be pleasant, but would the Germans be committed to puppeting HOlland or outright annexing it? I'm curious as I visited the Dutch Resistance Museum on my trip to Europe and was fascinated by occupation life.
Actually it would be a moderate to major effect. All the forces used for the naval attack on the Dardanelles and the Gallipoli landings would be used for an invasion of Java and Sumatra in 1915. The forces the Turks used to defend Gallipoli could be transferred to another front. They have the Caucasus, Mesopotamia and Sinai to choose from.Interesting idea. A minor effect of the dutch entering the war might be no ANZAC forces for Europe in 1915 if the war isn't over by then, because in all likelihood they would be sent to British New Guinea to fight the Dutch.
A good reason for the Dutch to stay out of the war.I think that at least the Netherlands and Belgium would be forced to join the Zollverein, which Luxembourg was already a member of IOTL.
Which is in the context of the question I was answering is irrelevant. That is...A good reason for the Dutch to stay out of the war.
But having re-read the thread it seems to me that the Dutch needed to be more pro-German for years before World War One for the OP to happen and ideally had a secret agreement with Germany allowing the German Army to cross Dutch territory in the event of a war between Germany and France. A Dutch government that pro-German might have joined the Zollverein well before the Great War broke out.What if the Netherlands says no to Germany's proposal like Belgium did in OTL. How would this affect the war and what would a German controlled Netherlands be like? Obviously it wouldn't be pleasant, but would the Germans set up a puppet government in Holland or annex it outright? I'm curious as I visited the Dutch Resistance Museum on my trip to Europe and was fascinated by occupation life.
Potentialy very powerful. In actuality not so much, especialy since we must assume the loss of Indonesia and the other colonies and the fact that the Netherlands must occupy a large part of the country (basicly half) that most likely does not want to be part of the Netherlands. Occupation costs money.
Antwerp a pistol pointed at the heart of England!
Unfortunately the HSF wouldn't be able to do very much more in the southern end of the North Sea or the English Channel because of the Dover Patrol which in August 1914 had two destroyer flotillas and a submarine flotilla (IIRC) and I do remember correctly that they were backed up by 4 squadrons of pre-dreadnoughts based in the English Channel and the Dover coast artillery.
IOTL the Germans had the Flanders Flotilla of destroyers and submarines operating from Bruges via Zeebrugge and Ostend. ITTL they might be backed up by some light cruisers based at Antwerp. Therefore there might be more battles between the Flanders Flotilla, Dover Patrol and Harwich Force, but I think the Royal Navy would win most of them.
OTOH its likely ITTL that if the Germans still loose the Battle of the Marne they do better in the Race to the Sea and end up in control of the Pas de Calais as far Abeville and Amiens. That would make it a lot harder for the Royal Navy to stop U-boats using the Strait of Dover.
The Dutch government was already Pro-German. I have no idea how negotiations would have gone to grant the Heer access to Dutch territory, as that did not happen IOTL, but I can only assume that with Flanders and some colonial possessions, they'd be satisfied. They would not commit any forces to the Western Front, so their only losses in the war would come from direct attack on the Netherlands, which would happen only in their colonies.Which is in the context of the question I was answering is irrelevant. That is...But having re-read the thread it seems to me that the Dutch needed to be more pro-German for years before World War One for the OP to happen and ideally had a secret agreement with Germany allowing the German Army to cross Dutch territory in the event of a war between Germany and France. A Dutch government that pro-German might have joined the Zollverein well before the Great War broke out.
With a POD of 1900 is that feasible? I don't know anything about Dutch-German relations between 1900 and 1914.
Probably not any more than they actually did.The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything. Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
In terms of territory I thought the Germans would offer the Dutch the British East Indies, i.e. Singapore, Malaya and British Borneo plus some islands in the West Indies.The Dutch government was already Pro-German. I have no idea how negotiations would have gone to grant the Heer access to Dutch territory, as that did not happen IOTL, but I can only assume that with Flanders and some colonial possessions, they'd be satisfied. They would not commit any forces to the Western Front, so their only losses in the war would come from direct attack on the Netherlands, which would happen only in their colonies.
They may prescribe to the train of thought that the war would end within six months of it starting, as all of the majors had, and ITTL, it is likely that that would be true.
Indeed. Germany would want the Congo to themselves, as the creation of Mittelafrika was one of the main goals for Germany in WW1, so the Dutch would need colonies in the East to compensate. If the Dutch can pull off their surprise attack and gain Malaysia and Singapore, that should be enough to satisfy them, when coupled with their gains in Europe.In terms of territory I thought the Germans would offer the Dutch the British East Indies, i.e. Singapore, Malaya and British Borneo plus some islands in the West Indies.
My suggested expansion of the East Indies Squadron was in part so that the East Indies would hold out longer and/or divert a larger Entente force to capture them. However, the other part was to make it more feasible to launch a surprise invasion of the British East Indies. Plus the earlier the Dutch and Germans make their secret alliance the more time the Dutch have to plan the invasion. OTOH that also gives British Intelligence more time to discover the plan and strengthen the defences of the Far East.
If the agreement had been made years in advance of 1914 the Dutch would have had time to stockpile food and raw materials in case the war wasn't over by Christmas. Although they don't commit any forces to the Western Front they could do things like increase the capacity of their canals and more important for the Schlieffen Plan increase the capacity of the railway system over the route the German Army's troop trains would use.
At the outbreak of war the Grand Fleet and Mediterranean had the 100 most modern destroyers organised into 5 flotillas, the 4 Patrol Flotillas including Dover had the next best and the oldest went to the Local Defence Flotillas.The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything.
For all the good they did at Jutland (which was to provide decoys for the more valuable ships) I would nominate the 8 armoured cruisers of the 1st and 2nd Cruiser Squadrons. They were death traps when facing battle cruisers, but even a pair of them could cope with Blucher.Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
That would be an interesting scenario, but there were still worries of taking more Catholic, non-German territory in the German government. I think the most likely scenario is Wallonia becoming a German satellite state, with Luxembourg joining the German Empire.If this enables the Germans to win a quick and decisive victory in the west might Belgium be divided as follows. The Flemish speaking part becomes part of the Netherlands. The Walloon part is annexed by pro-German Luxembourg which was already in the Zollverein becomes a full member of the German Empire.
I think a Greater Luxembourg within the German Empire is feasible. The eastern part of Belgium had been part of the Duchy of Luxembourg, which was in the German Confederation before German unification and before that the territory that is now Belgium and Luxembourg had been in the Holy Roman Empire.
OTOH if the Belgians know that the Dutch will help the Germans, which in turn makes a German victory more likely how likely is it that the Belgian Government will think, "We can't beat them and resistance will be suicide for our nation so we had better join them," and allow free passage of the German Army through their territory too? The Germans would sweeten this by offering Belgium the French part of Flanders.
It looks as if the Admiralty had made provision for the Germans operating in the Southern North Sea in armoured cruiser strength IOTL in the first place. This is the Royal Navy's armoured cruiser deployment in August 1914 from the copy of the British official history on the Naval History website.The Dover Patrol had the oldest, slowest and shittiest destroyers in the RN, IIRC of the 24 on strength they were aiming to keep only 12 available, the Harwich flotilla was the powerful RN force in the south with 30-40 destroyers and leaders as well as light cruisers. The Flanders Flotilla wasn't powerful compared to these forces, with only a handful of destroyers, 3-8 IIRC and no cruisers or anything. Antwerp would allow the Germans to deploy something powerful like the Blucher in the south meaning Britain would have to deploy 3 similar ships to counter her: 2 to assure superiority in any engagement and 1 to ensure 2 were available 24/7/365. How much would Britain strip from the GF to cover a decent sized German fore at Antwerp?
All that remained at the northern bases was their 2nd Cruiser Squadron, composed of six " Gloires," an old type of armoured cruiser, and the flotillas which were to co-operate with the British in the combined defence of the Channel.
These ships were in position on August 3, and on the same afternoon Admiral Rouyer, with the French 2nd Cruiser Squadron, took up his position to guard the Straits of Dover.