Netherlands in the Central Powers

[GlobalHumanism]

Say Wilhelm approaches the Dutch government with a proposition on the eve of the Schlieffen Plans execution.

Join the Central Powers and the Blitz across Belgium and be guaranteed the reaquisition of the their former territories and let's say for the purposes of this scenario they agree.

Could the extra Dutch troops have been decisive for the German High Command for the rest of the war?
What of the potential of the Dutch armada coupled with the German HSF in future battles with the Royal Navy?

 

[Riain]

The Dutch lose the DEI colony, which is nothing to sneeze at. Given I believe naval geography was Germany's downfall having the Dutch on side will be beneficial in that regard. Ideally having the Dutch on side early enough would allow German trains to travel deep into southern Holland and 1st Army could begin its advance from west of Antwerp.

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

You'd really push Japan into the Entente Camp with this.

 

[Ferreti]

You'd really push Japan into the Entente Camp with this.

Japan was already knee deep in the Entente camp.

 

[Drewbdu]

This could be devcisive. If the push through Belgium can begin with a German thrust south from Dutch territory instead of a thrust West from Germany proper, it would save a lot of time that was used to advance on a narrow front. If the German forces can take all of Belgium, it would pave the way for an advance on Dunkirk, which would keep the Entente from flanking the German Forces as happened in OTL.

There are two things to take into consideration:

1) If the Germans can use this advantage to take Paris in the opening campaign, then France is done. Peace with the Western Entente would indeed come "before the leaves fall off the trees", as Wilhelm II put it.

2) If the Germans are halted before advancing on Paris, then they are in a much better position, meaning that they will keep most of their gains in Northern France, including access to the Channel. The Pale of Calais would be useful to disrupt at least some traffic on the Channel, which could hinder logistics for the BEF. If things go similar to OTL from this point in the East, then it is likely that the final German offensive in the West could take Paris, simply due to the smaller distance that would need to be traversed by the German Army.

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Japan was already knee deep in the Entente camp.

Yeah, but imagine Imperial Japan starting with Indonesia in WWII.

 

[Drewbdu]

Yeah, but imagine Imperial Japan starting with Indonesia in WWII.

The Entente winning this war seems unlikely. Even if they were on the winning side, I don't think Japan would gain the East Indies. More likely than not it would be split between Francd and the U.K.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

The Entente winning this war seems unlikely. Even if they were on the winning side, I don't think Japan would gain the East Indies. More likely than not it would be split between Francd and the U.K.

agreed. the Brits wouldn't be stupid and tip the balance of power to the Japanese in the region willy nilly.

 

[EMTSATX]

Would this not have a major effect on the U-boat campaign? Would the blockade by the British be as effective? If the central powers still loose where does the Kaiser go?

 

[Qhapaq Inka]

Would this not have a major effect on the U-boat campaign? Would the blockade by the British be as effective? If the central powers still loose where does the Kaiser go?

If they lose, could the Kaiser go to Sweden?

 

[anotherlurker]

The Dutch lose the DEI colony, which is nothing to sneeze at. Given I believe naval geography was Germany's downfall having the Dutch on side will be beneficial in that regard. Ideally having the Dutch on side early enough would allow German trains to travel deep into southern Holland and 1st Army could begin its advance from west of Antwerp.

They can get it back after winning. It would be really easy - "Tell you what UK, we give back Northern France and you give back the colonies, a good deal, righ? Now for Southern France..." You dont need an army to stand somewhere to decide what happens with that strip of land once peace is declared, just ask Danzig.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

They can get it back after winning. It would be really easy - "Tell you what UK, we give back Northern France and you give back the colonies, a good deal, righ? Now for Southern France..." You dont need an army to stand somewhere to decide what happens with that strip of land once peace is declared, just ask Danzig.

Also the DEI will hold out longer than all the German colonies, except Tanganyika. For a start its much better defended. The Entente Powers have the same resources as OTL and it will take time for them to organise a large enough invasion force. If the war is shorter than OTL the Dutch might still be holding out.

They Dutch might even take the initiative and launch a surprise attack on Singapore timed to coincide with their declaration of war on the UK.

It also changes what Von Spee would do. He's likely to go south to join up with the Dutch East Indies squadron. Though AFAIK the Dutch had even fewer useful warships there August 1914 than they did in December 1941.

 

[thezerech]

I think to make this work, have some PODs in the 19th century to give the Dutch a stronger more aggressive military, especially Navy. Not only to make this plausible but to give the Dutch something more to contribute other than land the Germans can march through.

 

[pompejus]

Say Wilhelm approaches the Dutch government with a proposition on the eve of the Schlieffen Plans execution.

Join the Central Powers and the Blitz across Belgium and be guaranteed the reaquisition of the their former territories and let's say for the purposes of this scenario they agree.

Could the extra Dutch troops have been decisive for the German High Command for the rest of the war?
What of the potential of the Dutch armada coupled with the German HSF in future battles with the Royal Navy?

The problem is, what can the Germans offer the Netherlands to make the Netherlands join them? basicly nothing the Dutch would actualy want. Would the Netherlands want Belgium back? No, not realy. The Dutch did not care about Belgium anymore (too many catholics and Walloons). Colonies? What colonies would the Netherlands want? Well probably some colonies in the East (Malaysia, Eastern New Guinea). Basicly all British colonies and the Netherlands knows that germany cannot defeat the British navy and conquer those colonies. Besides that the danger of falling to close into the German sphere of influence would be too big.

And that is if they win the war. If they lose the Netherlands would lose all their colonies and probably the southern parts of the country (possibly up to Brabant). In short joining Germany would be the stupidest thing the Netherlands could do and they knew it. Which is why they didn't join OTL.

 

[wietze]

and have it coincide with admiral nikolai essen's folly indeed happening (it takes very little) meaning sweden is central too.

I think to make this work, have some PODs in the 19th century to give the Dutch a stronger more aggressive military, especially Navy. Not only to make this plausible but to give the Dutch something more to contribute other than land the Germans can march through.

the dutch military in this era isn't nothing to sneeze at, it was in a much better shape than pre-ww2 (one of the reasons the germans didn't march through the netherlands in ww1)
apart from being able to short cut to belgium, an additional 250-500k dutch troops will make a big difference(the netherlands mobilised 500K men)

 

[Drewbdu]

Would this not have a major effect on the U-boat campaign? Would the blockade by the British be as effective? If the central powers still loose where does the Kaiser go?

Indeed. If the Central Powers have an uninterrupted coast line from the Netherlands to Northern France, then the British will have to commit much more resources than OTL if they want the blockade to be anywhere near as effective. There is the issue that IOTL the Dutch could trade with the Germans and the global market, which helped to feed at least some of the German public, but the war may not last long enough for the blockade to take a significant toll on the civilian populace.

The 1915 U-Boat campaign could be much more effective with Dunkirk, Calais, and the Dutch coastline to support it, and the extra damage done would be another blow to the strained financial resources of the Western Entente.

Without even taking into account Dutch military strength in 1914 (which was significant), the simple land access for the Heer to a much larger front would put the Germans on track to take Paris. The Battle of the Marne as we know it would not happen, as the Germans would be in a strong position to avoid flanking and push forward along a straighter frontline. The BEF may be more inclined to retreat across the Channel if Dunkirk is threatened, but more likely than not they would dig in and attempt to halt the Germans. A battle would still happen on the Marne, as the loss of Paris would be devestating to French morale, but I simply can't see the French halting the Germans (and Dutch, for that matter) as they did IOTL.

 

[avernite]

I imagine the impact will be significant, especially if the Germans somehow manage to plan for it but it manages to be a surprise to most other powers (of course the how is going to be the big job for whoever wants this to happen). The two Dutch armies (roughly, maybe 1 actually deployable in the initial fighting) would be a significant boost to the plan, and maybe allow Moltke to deploy a German army's worth of reinforcements east as well, to allow a knockout on France while also running rings around Russia.

And, indeed, a Dutch surprise DoW might be able to dislodge the Belgians from much of the Antwerp forts with the ease of access for German armies and the Dutch help (allowing a pincer from Zeeus Vlaanderen to some extent). There's probably no race to the sea, as at least one German or Dutch army is just sauntering down the coast to start with, probably getting to Calais if the British don't choose to fight them instead of the main German punch to Paris. If they do, a fight develops somewhere between Antwerp and Calais without either side really getting the upper hand - but the German armies aiming for Paris will be able to move far more freely. If the British still deploy as historical, they'll probably have to retreat south of the Seine to restore their logistics after the initial fights - leaving this coastal army free to continue far further south.

By the time the British have seized more than a handful of places in the DEI the war could be over.

 

[Ed Costello]

Was there actually any particular clamour within the Netherlands to 'reclaim' Belgium IOTL? Holding down two restive provinces that have been independent for nearly a century would be tricky, even more so if none of the occupiers actually want to do the holding.

More to the point, Dutch shipping will be considered hostile by the Entente and interdicted virtually at will. The Royal Navy will likely shell ports and coastal cities to disrupt their usefulness to the Kriegsmarine, and there will like as not be a Gallipolli-style descent on the Frisian Islands or South Holland to threaten the Zuider Zee or cut off Amsterdam from the rest of the country. And, of course, the Dutch economy will tank. I can't see the Dutch Government looking at that list, and finding anything Germany could offer them that might outweigh it.

 

[Karelian]

a Gallipolli-style descent on the Frisian Islands.

Now you've done it.

 

[Drewbdu]

Was there actually any particular clamour within the Netherlands to 'reclaim' Belgium IOTL? Holding down two restive provinces that have been independent for nearly a century would be tricky, even more so if none of the occupiers actually want to do the holding.

More to the point, Dutch shipping will be considered hostile by the Entente and interdicted virtually at will. The Royal Navy will likely shell ports and coastal cities to disrupt their usefulness to the Kriegsmarine, and there will like as not be a Gallipolli-style descent on the Frisian Islands or South Holland to threaten the Zuider Zee or cut off Amsterdam from the rest of the country. And, of course, the Dutch economy will tank. I can't see the Dutch Government looking at that list, and finding anything Germany could offer them that might outweigh it.

The issue with this train of thought is that all of the European powers thought in extremes at the time. All thought the war would be over within a year, and if the Dutch subscribe to this idea, and allow access to the Germans, the war would likely be over within 6 months. It would certainly be easier for the Dutch to allow military access to the Heer than for them to outright join the war, and with the friendliness between Germany and the Netherlands, it seems plausible.

If the Dutch actually joined the war, then it would tip the balance even more in Germany's favor, though that would be hard to accomplish with a POD after 1910.