Neighboring Super-Estados, beginning with the end of the PRI

Mexico's New Democracy was a chance in a Century, unlikely to have emerged since the replacement for Diaz eventually turned out to be a one-party regime known as the PRI. Finally, in 2000, there was a coalition of parties that would change history. Rather than risk a split nation that was part Democratic and part state party, there was a fortunate sweep of the remnants of the old party that could have stalled major reforms. Mexico was once again in the hands of representative parties that could compete for ideas and results, rather than a state party that had to do nothing more than fix the vote count.

The PAN and the PRD are ideologically split, who could have ever imagined anything more than a 3-way race resulting in weak parties unable to govern without improved deal-making, something they'd never had to learn or practice? The great work of fate (POD) was a negotiation between parties facilitated by skilled negotiators that had risen up in the PAN and the PRD, even as the popular cowboy, Vicente Fox, led the coalition and had to rely on this fortunate and practical alliance.

There would be serious issues for the two parties to reconcile, but they were united in one great hope, that Mexico could become one of the world's great Democracies with increasing opportunities and rapid growth favorable for all parties, and with compensation, retraining, and investment capital for those who were not placed to benefit from the initial shock of change that would sweep over Mexico dramatically, leaving fears of a piecemeal death of Democracy in the past.

Would this calm be rightly placed? Would the beast that was the PRI finally RIP?
 
In 2000, Vicente Fox swept into power, backed by not only his party, but also by smaller parties, and most fortunately of all, by the PRD (opponent in OTL).

The majority-minority-party houses were not solidly centrist PAN and centrist PRD, seeking reconciliation between liberal and conservative ideologies of the past and joining together in the goal of peace and prosperity.

Many reforms put forward by Vicente Fox could have been blocked (as in OTL) by the PRI, a bitter old party in 2000, but it was so decimated in the elections that it could not block the dramatic changes. A tax on food and medicine swelled government revenue for spending on such poverty reduction programs as Oportunidades, and on reform of education, on the courts, and on security. The PAN also managed to pass, with the help of the PRD, reforms to the oil sector, welcoming private capital and expertise but keeping the entity (at least in name) in the hands of the state, and with it additional revenue growth during the Democratic government. Some of the wealth would go to a sovereign wealth fund to help stability, lower interest rates and risk, and keeping the currency competitive.

With revenue swelled and pro-growth reforms accelerating, many sectors had to be compensated, from small-scale farmers to public workers of the state oil company. At the same time, new formal sector jobs exploded, as they had also been doing in countries such as Spain and Ireland, but not relying too heavily on real estate, rather on a new Mexican industrialization and modernization.

This of course created competition in Latin America from Socialist Cuba and Venezuela, who had a well-known spat with Vicente Fox.

Hugo Chavez had called Vicente Fox many names, teasing him in front of cameras, but with Fox able to pass his full economic reforms without PRI obstructionism, there was a dramatic explosion of investment in Mexico, balanced by a sovereign wealth fund and accumulation of foreign reserves to keep things stable in the future. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez sensed a challenge to his ideology. Chavez got to compete with the emerging Mexican nation that had grown 7% in the early 2000's. He had oil money, but Mexico had export earnings and US protection, so he felt that he had to act against a nation that might not be defended by the US. He felt he had to act now in favor of his plan to see a return to Gran Colombia. He had his justification in his mind, he could not let his ideological rival head a nation, even a coalition, that would challenge his growing influence in the region. Tanks began to roll from Colombia to Venezuela...
 
In 2005, Chavez and Fox had a disagreement about the Free Trade Area of the Americas, as oil money expanded the influence of Chavez and supported by anti-americanism in the region. Fox sought to improve trade and the region's finances, investments, and industrialization. Chavez moved his coalition to reject and lobby against any FTAA.

In 2004 and 2005, Chavez and Colombia had a dispute over the location of FARC rebel Rodrigo Granda's capture, and in who's territory he had been captured. Chavez claimed he had been captured in Venezuela. Chavez expelled the Colombian Ambassador. Lula da Silva of Brazil intervened to bring peace to the region, holding discussions with Uribe of Colombia while Castro had discussions with Chavez and ultimately Uribe and Chavez meet and resolve their differences.

In a timeline of an emerging Mexican power increasing passing reforms and surpassing growth estimates, Venezuela feels it must match the capitalist challenge to its influence in the region from a nation going down a much less socialist path than its allies and uncomfortable neighbors such as Brazil, which always had a difficult working relationship with Chavez's Venezuela.

As Mexico initiates the Pacifica partnership early (as well as joing the US Pacific Pact) and in a position of relative strength, Chavez feels threatened and initiates his oft-interrupted plans to restart Gran Colombia. Before a similar incident in 2008 (targeted killing by Colombia of Raul Reyes in Ecuador) triggers Chavez to send tanks to the border, Chavez finds a new excuse and begins to mobilize.
 
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Venezuela and Mexico relations in 2005 were not cozy to say the least, with the 2005 Mexico-Venezuela diplomatic crisis the perfect example. By then Mexico had grown over 1/3 of its 2000 GDP. Nevertheless, Mexico and Brazil seemed to be distracted with upcoming Presidential elections in 2006.

After withdrawing form the Andean Community, Venezuela hears about the likelihood that the Colombia-US trade agreement will be signed in November of that same year. He decides to act immediately. In April 2006, his tanks begin to roll to the Colombia border based on an alleged incursion by Colombian military personnel who had been lured by false information sent from within Venezuela indicating the location of top FARC leader.

Unfortunately for Chavez, his tanks keep getting bogged down in the mud. Furthermore, the nations in the midst of elections are not so distracted and more conservative candidates accept Chavez's gift of publicity by taking tough stances against his aggressive move in the region.

Calderon declares that Latin American nations oppose what Colombia did in Ecuador when it transgressed its neighbor's territorial bounderies and would not stand for such transgressions, a subtle swipe and Chavez' dreams of a return to Gran Colombia through military takeover by Chavez. Lula maintains a conciliatory stance, which Chavez views as appeasement. As history has shown, the opportunity is taken by Chavez to press forward with his tanks at a delayed timetable.

The delay gives the Pacific allies in Latin America a chance to defend each other from territorial transgression, and they immediately agree on stationing troops, naval ships, and air support within and around Colombia and its border with Venezuela. Mexico in particular has close proximity to Chavez and is willing to use its advanced Navy trained with assistance from the US to neutralize a shared danger for much of the Pacific region of Latin America. Ecuador decides to stay neutral as it is not in a position of strength as it is struggling with its economy after its recent default and its neighbors are doing better.

At the battle of Santa Marta demonstrates why Chavez should not have pushed forward. The warm, wet weather has adds to his troubles as his military's tanks are not well-maintained. The Navy of Mexico is the closest to assist with air support from its aircraft carriers and the Colombian military is ready to fight in these conditions against the few effective tanks with the help of air support. Losing its few effective tanks, the generals call for a retreat and Chavez is loathe to comply. He allows a retreat but calls for a counterattack half way back. Depleted, his army makes the half-hearted effort and gets further reduced in equipment with anti-tank weapons and precision bombing.

The Battle of Santa Marta is over. Venezuela's economy and military are damaged by international sanctions and losses in battle. Thanks to high oil prices his regime survives and plans to rebuild. The Pacific Pact seeks a general consensus on if Venezuela's threat should be met with a goal of regime change, possibly continuing on to Cuba to remove the inspiration of Hugo Chavez. They discuss with Brazil and Argentina if they are willing to take a tough stance against future incursions by Venezuela along with them and in such a case in exchange they will end the conflict. Brazil and Argentina agree to police Chavez more closely. Chavez knows he is now basically surrounded by tougher neighbors no longer willing to appease him. His buildup will be for another day should conditions change. However, he has angered Colombia, and he cannot hope for much support from the populace for a Gran Colombia for several generations. Cuba survives for now.

Back in Mexico, the military victor is a boon for some of the anti-Chavez forces within Mexico, from Calderon to Fox, and the election is virtually assured. No close election means the "mexican era of good feelings" in a PRD-PAN partnership continues, with additional reforms from a practical and capable Calderon meaning continued high pace of growth in Mexico. The stage is set for a Mexico well funded from recent high growth and well reformed, seeking to strengthen its law and order as well as further its economic growth and development. The goal will be a 2012 with Mexico over double its wealth in 2000, with greater reduction in inequality. Such a multiplying of GDP would place it (on a Purchasing Power Parity basis) at approximately 3 trillion GDP and behind India just ahead of Russia and Brazil of the Bric nations in 2011.
 
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Hugo Chavez is a bitter defeated man, unable to comprehend how electoral democracies always work against him.

"Regresare" he declares, he'll be back to challenge the imperialists and their democracies.

At the same time, the same evil sentiment of a one-party ruler is discussed in the smoke-filled rooms of men in Mexico who desire to capitalize on a tragic tendency of people to expect too much of a new democracy and have to little patience. Even an emerging Mexico will face an old, disgruntled elite being willing to makeover their image to cater to a number of angry voters, dissatisfied with the changes they've experienced in democracy. They are like Putin's Russia and its ologarchs. They are the PRI, and they swear they will be back, even if they must learn to smile before the cameras and claim to rule in a new manner. "Regresaremos" say the old party "dinosaurios" of the PRI, they will be back.

Mexico is one of the democracies in latin america least likely to give a favorable response to democracy as a solution to its problems in public opinion polls. Russia faced a similar challenge in the 90's. With the uncontentious election of Calderon, there would be a united party delivering greater growth and satisfaction. Now how do you battle electoral ennui? How do you fight against the tide of history? Calderon can see a need for additional changes and additional stability in his nation, a nation he hopes to see amongst the greatest democracies of the 21st Century, ready to stand up for electoral rights for its people that some socialist leaning dictators would seek to undermine from Cuba and Venezuela to Nicaragua and Honduras.
 
Feedback welcome

Hello, this is my first timeline / draft. Now that I've gotten to the length of some other initiating timeline posts, using small individual posts, I'd like to get any sort of feedback, which would be appreciated. I know it's a bit of a "Mexico-Wank" to see it rise to top 5 economies (measured in PPP) in 10 years, but to be fair, this approaches the growth rates possible with major reforms for a nation that is currently in the top 11 economies (measured in PPP, about top 15 in nominal terms). I also believe I likely need to play up non-economic elements and discussions, perhaps?
 
I've focused on economics scientifically, the real difficulties between Chavez and the Mexican administrations are entertaining, I believe. However I hope it does not push too many ideological buttons as I sense this forum has a lot of European and left-of-center influences.

Feedback on the timeline is still welcome.
 
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