(Hindeburg and Ludendorf would not agree to these terms, so I hope they're gone)
You really didnt read the OP:
POD: Romania doesn't enter the war in 1916, which means General Falkenhayn keeps his position as head of the German army.
(Hindeburg and Ludendorf would not agree to these terms, so I hope they're gone)
POD: Romania doesn't enter the war in 1916, which means General Falkenhayn keeps his position as head of the German army.
I know, but I don't think the Germans can trust the Luxembourgers to govern themselves, seeing as they are a conquered territory that did not want to be part of Germany. At least that is my impression, so if anyone has any other information about German plans for Luxembourg, please correct me.
In a negotiated peace, outright annexations of the French mainland would be like a big "fuck you" to the Entente. I would think a demilitarised region and a Saar-like solution to Briey-Longwy would be (somewhat) better.
East Africa is probably lost, since it is essential for the Cape-to-Cairo railway. You could partition it if you could find an agreeable solution for both the Germans and the British.
As for the colonies, you could be able to bring back Togo and Kamerun, and maybe even grab Benin, Neukamerun, Middle Congo and Gabon. Note that these are all French posessions, so you could arrange this as the Germans cashing in on every inch of French mainland they retreat from. Congo proper, being a Belgian colony, is probably out of the picture.
AH and Germany as still trying to figure out how to handle Poland, as AH wants to turn it into a third crown (Kaiser Karl does at any rate, there are problems with that), but Falkenhayn doesn't allow the Kingdom of Poland to be created ITTL, so that issue isn't on the table.
Not quite sure about that.
IMO Germany can be more then happy if getting ANY former colony back after Entente occupied them.
Also, they can serve as a way for paying war damage to Belgians and French.
Guys
Most of the conditions being mentioned here are for a considerable German victory which isn't really on the cards. The allies are short of funds without America but can make use of internal funding like Germany did. They can also rely on access to world markets for selling goods so even if somewhat restricted they could continue on with the war. This I can see while Germany is insistent on such large gains.
Steve
Germany needs to be in a pretty bad poisition to be willing to concede anything to the French. And paying war damage to France (as opposed to Belgium) means German defeat. Otherwise, Germany will not agree.
Quick reminder, the German offensive is the trump card here. They are threatening to use their manpower freed up from the East in a major offensive unless the Entente bows to certain demands. The French are afraid of being in an even worse negotiating position, so don't refuse.
But, I don't see Britain giving back german colonies, after all, Germany can't make them to do that, they maybe can force France to get back Togo and Cameroon and that's that.
So, eastern part od German East Africa and MAYBE Cameroon and Togo. ( even that is questionable, since they could be used to be sweeter for France to swallow bitter pilul of incorporating Luxembourg into Germany. )
Ruanda-Burundi to Belgians to pay for war damage.
Germany is already paying reparations to Belgium here. Also it wasn't just the British that took German colonies. The French took Togo and were involved in taking Cameroon. Does France really care about Luxembourg? I think not, it really was only important to Germany and if the trade off is getting getting back a large swath of their country and countrymen.
Based on this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=177937
I wanted to have a discussion about what would happen after the war if the following peace, a peace of exhaustion, was signed.
POD: Romania doesn't enter the war in 1916, which means General Falkenhayn keeps his position as head of the German army. This is crucial, as he was not in favor of unrestricted submarine warfare, a military dictatorship and the economic plan of Hindenburg (which destroyed the German economy through mismanagement), and wanted peace in 1917 by negotiation.
Because he opposes unrestricted submarine warfare, he is able to find support from the German Kaiser and Chancellor, both of whom were strong-armed into agreement by Ludendorff OTL. Consequently the Zimmermann note is never sent and the US does not enter the war. Loans are cut off to the Entente as per OTL, but no liberty loans are raised to replace them. Britain maintains a slightly muted war effort, but her allies Russia, France, and Italy are dependent on British loans for their war efforts, which have dried up entirely. Without collateral and their bonds being rated as junk, there is little money coming in except through direct taxation, which can only be raised slightly without causing revolution.
After April 1917 the French war effort has wound down, both because of the mutinies, which here are much harder to placate without the Americans and morale boost them brought, as well as an inability to purchase food from the US and finance minor attacks to wear down the Germans (OTL after the Nivelle offensive the French attacked around Verdun very successfully, which boosted morale and hurt the Germans'. Also the successful Petain version of the Chemin des Dames cannot occur due to lack of funds and willingness of the French soldier to fight).
The Russian provisional government bows out of the war early, after the October Revolution, because of no Americans or loans, which causes Romania to occupy and annex Bessarbia. The Ottomans still make later efforts to occupy the Caucasus region as Russia falls into civil war.
Italy is attack at Caporetto as per OTL, though slightly earlier, which devastates them. However, with Russia knocked out of the war early, no Americans, and no loans, the Italian socialists and anti-war protestors revolt, causing the government to ask for a cease fire. This topples the French government, which reforms under Joseph Caillaux, who starts negotiations with the Germans. The British join in, as do the Italians.
The negotiations conclude under the threat of German offensive.
In the West the Germans avoid reparations for France and Britain, but have to pay Belgium. They also annex Luxembourg and get trade concessions with Belgium. There are minor border adjustments on the Franco-German border in Germany's favor. Germany loses her colonies and has some limits to her navy. Italy loses minor territories to make the Austrian border more defensible. Italy also pays minor reparations for the war. Rump Serbia is united with Montenegro under the pro-Austrian Obrenovic's, who were deposed in 1903. In the East the Germans get Poland (still in negotiations with Austria-Hungary over the role each will play in that country)and the Baltic area. AH doesn't ask for anything, just food from Russia. The Bulgarians get to keep their conquests. Romania gets to keep Bessarbia. The Ottomans lose everything base on the December 1917 front line with the Brits. They try to take the Caucasus to compensate in 1918.
Important notes: there is no Brest-Litovsk, though the Russian Provisional government is fighting the Bolsheviks. There is no Bread Peace with the Ukrainians, which means the AHs are more stable in Galicia, having avoiding pissing off the Poles. AH is more stable than 1918 OTL, but the Hungarians and Austrians have the Ausgleich negotiations coming up and the Hungarians have large demands, including a separate army, which Kaiser Karl will not agree to. There are large numbers of returning to AH that have been exposed to Communism and are angry. Here they will not be asked to fight again, which pushed them over the edge, but in Hungary they have demands of nobility and are plotting assassinations of important figures like Tisza.
There is major inflation in Germany and AH, though not nearly as bad as the 1920's OTL version. A global depression has occurred as a result of the break down in trade and the consumer economy being turned into war economies in Europe. Germany has large gold reserves and is owed money by her allies, but they can't really pay and Germany owes the Netherlands for loans and trade. The nation never goes through the dictatorship of Hindenburg and Ludendorff, both of whom are lionized and claim they could have won total victory. Political violence does occur, but it is limited. A broad section of society wants the Kaiser replaced with the Crown Prince. Many want a constitution with limited authority for the monarch.
France is completely broke and owes major money to the US. This is backed by collateral, but with a devastated country, no reparations, and no ability to raise further loans France is economically crippled. Taxation can only provide so much money, which further exacerbates tensions in the country. Large scale death and what all view as a loss causes political violence verging on civil war. Caillaux is assassinated in 1918.
Italy is also smashed, having gained nothing but civil unrest, which tumbles into civil war, as angry soldiers and civilians take out their rage on their leaders.
AH is devastated with communists planning violence, inflation and debt sap the economy, various national groups have demands for the peace, and all sides have weapons and trained soldiers to fight for them. The Czechs are in a bad place due to the behavior of their soldiers during the war and the Czech legion, meaning many of their potential soldiers/leaders are exiled.
Russia is in civil war, but the Germans are not involved yet, just providing captured Russian weapons and munitions to the Whites. Britain is aiding them too. Fighting in the Baltics is starting, as returning Baltic soldiers, who were fighting for Russia, try to return home. Finland has also revolted and is now independent, but is fighting a civil war aided by the Germans. The Ottomans invade the Caucasus in May with the army of Islam.
Britain is also massively in debt, mainly to the US, as she took out loans for her allies to get them a lower borrowing rate, but they are unable to pay these loans back. Angry soldiers are returning and violence in India and Ireland are picking up.
With this scenario how will the peace play out???
I don't see any reason at all why the Germans are going to agree to this peace in you TTL. Their enemies are collapsing all around them, they look to be sitting pretty, so if they are going to agree to a peace its going to be a Brest-Litovsk style peace both East and West.
Quick reminder, the German offensive is the trump card here. They are threatening to use their manpower freed up from the East in a major offensive unless the Entente bows to certain demands. The French are afraid of being in an even worse negotiating position, so don't refuse.
Also remember that Germany is better off never having to deal with the Hindenburg program and the major social and economic dislocation that caused. There are also about 140,000 more men still in the army that were released in OTL during the Hindenburg program to work in factories that never were finished; here they will still be at the front and they were mostly 20-something prime soldier material men.
So just as the Entente is having to reduce its war effort, the Germans' is picking up significantly.
Actually they cannot make use of internal funds like Germany because their economic systems were based on imports. Germany war forced to use its ample coal and steel reserves (captured, imported from Sweden, or internal), while the French had lost almost all of theirs in 1914 and needed to import it all, but not just that. They needed to import food, nitrates, rare metals like tungsten, oil, etc. All this had to come from the outside and required foreign currency to purchase. It was not forthcoming, as the drying up of loans and perception that the war was lost for them is dropping the exchange rate like a iron cannon ball. Britain is somewhat better off, but still needs to import food and many types of crucial metals, something she is not able to purchase now except with funds raised privately. Though I am sure that internally some funds can be raised, remember that Britain was having her own national and private banks loaning money to France and Russia this whole time and turned to America to supplement her financial might. However by 1917 it was tapped out and all her gold reserves were used up as collateral for American loans. No one is loaning Britain money and much of the private and public money has already been loaned. Direct taxation would cause a riot. So they can start printing money like Germany and Austria-Hungary, which allowed them to pay internal debtors, but this doesn't help them with external imports.
By 1917 both the French and British economies are not based on exporting consumer goods, they are geared up for war goods. They cannot flip a switch and start selling consumer goods to raise foreign capital, and even if they did, it would be private industry selling abroad, which doesn't mean the government can seize their profits for the war.
MikeStone8 suggested this article, which highlighted the situation nicely:
The Command of Gold Reversed: American Loans to Britain, 1915-1917
Author(s): John Milton Cooper, Jr.Source: Pacific Historical Review, Vol. 45, No. 2 (May, 1976), pp. 209-230
Hew Strachan talks about this issue at length in his book "To Arms" in the financing the war section.
That is a possibility. Much depends on who takes over after the Caporetto in France; historically it was Clemenceau, but here without the US, their loans, and the earlier exit of Russia, Caillaux will most likely get the nod and enter negotiations. He was pretty much willing to concede a lot for peace IIRC.Possibly or possibly they realise how fragile the German position is. If the Germans start making huge demands on France I can see them deciding to fight on even if they believe they will lose.
The Hindenburg programme did cause a lot of social damage but without it does Germany have the arms and munitions for those men?
Confused here?Germany had to produce virtually everything internally because of the blockade but it still had to pay for them. The entente powers had access to world markets and hence could use them, not just for loans and imported war materials to supplement the vast quantities they were making themselves but to sell home and colonial goods. In terms of raw materials the empires also gave captive resources while I believe that as in WWII the dominions were willing to supply goods on very favourable terms. However that is for the non-military materials that the home countries couldn't supply themselves. Funding the purchases by internal loans would be possible as in Germany. In fact giving more control for the issue rather than sticking with laisse-faire attitudes would probably both make available a lot of resources and ease social concerns about the black-marketers and war-profits some businesses were making.
Germany now just has the Western Front and isn't bogged down trying to occupy all of Eastern Europe ITTL.
Except nothing of the above came from the occupation, just wasted resources and manpower. Germany didn't even want it except to pressure the Bolsheviks to quit. Here that is not an issue and Germany can demobilize its least fit soldiers from the East to work the fieldsYes, but occupation of Ukraine was a nescessity because of shortage of food, Caucasus was important because of oil, and Belarus and Baltic because of protecting flanks of Ukraine.
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I know, but I don't think the Germans can trust the Luxembourgers to govern themselves, seeing as they are a conquered territory that did not want to be part of Germany. At least that is my impression, so if anyone has any other information about German plans for Luxembourg, please correct me.
It seems to me that what this argument really points up is the immense difficulty of ever getting a compromise peace, because, as the late AJP Taylor put it "What was compromise for one side represented defeat for the other".
Perhaps it would take until the Germans launch a version of the 'peace offensive' ITTL, pushing the war in 1918, but making German gains greater in the post war, while tearing up France worse.There is an "easy" way to force both sides to the negotiating table: make the war last a bit longer then wiking`s 1917. deadline. Social upheaval should do the rest.