Negotiated End to WW1

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yourworstnightmare

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There will be no negotiated peace as long as the Germans have an advantage, since the Germans would be too proud to be willing to give up anything.
 

yourworstnightmare

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So civil unrest and severe food shortages just give way before the all-conquering might of German pride.:rolleyes:
Yes, but then Germany don't have the advantage anymore and is more willing to give in to demands, such as return to 1914 borders in the West and the secession of the Colonies.
 

yourworstnightmare

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A Germany with no food (they came close to this OTL) and riots on the street would not be in an advantageous position in the war anymore. Such a Germany would accept negotiations over the German colonies and perhaps an no annexations in Western Europe principle. But before this they would stubbornly decline negotiations, still believing Ludendorf's and von Hindenburg's pipe dream that a victory is possible.
 
A Germany with no food (they came close to this OTL) and riots on the street would not be in an advantageous position in the war anymore. Such a Germany would accept negotiations over the German colonies and perhaps an no annexations in Western Europe principle. But before this they would stubbornly decline negotiations, still believing Ludendorf's and von Hindenburg's pipe dream that a victory is possible.

Did you even bother to read the OP?:rolleyes:
 

yourworstnightmare

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The OP is the situation I first refered (which isn't a that plausible situation anyway) to, and in that situation things go well for Germany, no big starvation yet, no riots in the street, so no way they'll allow the French to come to the table. They'd still be content they can dictate a peace to the Frenchmen and force Britain out of the war. It would of course only end badly for them when starvation do hit them.
 

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The realities on the field are that Germany holds big chunks of France, Belgium and the whole of Luxemburg, and yet has no hold on the high seas and Africa. Sure, the scenario isnt very probable, but it definately isnt inplausible. Of course, if wiking would explain his scenario in a bit more detail, we could discuss this on safer ground.
What would you like me to clarify?
 

Deleted member 1487

In the West the Germans avoid reparations for France and Britain, but have to pay Belgium for damages

They also annex Luxembourg and get trade concessions with Belgium.
Customs union with Belgium, Luxembourg is a new Reichsland like Alsace-Lorraine

There are minor border adjustments on the Franco-German border in Germany's favor. Front slope of the Vosges and Briey-Longwy

Germany loses her colonies and has some limits to her navy.
In retrospect Germany gets back Togo, Kamerun, and German East Africa, but has to peg her navy to the RN 2:3 with 1:1 in subs. Maybe picks up neighboring territories around Togo and Kamerun?

Italy loses minor territories to make the Austrian border more defensible.
A couple mountains here and there

Italy also pays minor reparations for the war.
1/3 of AH's war cost against Italy or some such

Rump Serbia is united with Montenegro under the pro-Austrian Obrenovic's, who were deposed in 1903.

In the East the Germans get Poland (still in negotiations with Austria-Hungary over the role each will play in that country)and the Baltic area.
Political influence over the areas, though Germany wants to Germanize and annex the Baltics. AH and Germany as still trying to figure out how to handle Poland, as AH wants to turn it into a third crown (Kaiser Karl does at any rate, there are problems with that), but Falkenhayn doesn't allow the Kingdom of Poland to be created ITTL, so that issue isn't on the table.

AH doesn't ask for anything, just food from Russia.
From the Ukraine food with her POWs are the war reparations, not border changes

The Bulgarians get to keep its conquests.

Romania gets to keep Bessarbia.

The Ottomans lose everything based on the December 1917 front line with the Brits. They try to take the Caucasus to compensate in 1918.
 

Anderman

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In the West the Germans avoid reparations for France and Britain, but have to pay Belgium for damages

They also annex Luxembourg and get trade concessions with Belgium.
Customs union with Belgium, Luxembourg is a new Reichsland like Alsace-Lorraine

Luxembourgh is a Grand Duchy unlike AL which was a republic so there is no need for a new Reichsland. :)
 

Deleted member 1487

Luxembourgh is a Grand Duchy unlike AL which was a republic so there is no need for a new Reichsland. :)
I know, but I don't think the Germans can trust the Luxembourgers to govern themselves, seeing as they are a conquered territory that did not want to be part of Germany. At least that is my impression, so if anyone has any other information about German plans for Luxembourg, please correct me.
 
Germany gets back Togo, Kamerun, and German East Africa, but has to peg her navy to the RN 2:3 with 1:1 in subs.

I think GB would be satisfied if not happy with the terms you set forth. France would harbor impotent dreams of revenge (that would end in a third country-ass-kicking in three generations). AH would totter along. Italy would fall apart. Ottomans would fail in an attempt to seize the Caucasus if the Reds win the Russian Civil War.

Hero of Canton
 
In the West the Germans avoid reparations for France and Britain, but have to pay Belgium for damages

They also annex Luxembourg and get trade concessions with Belgium.
Customs union with Belgium, Luxembourg is a new Reichsland like Alsace-Lorraine

Italy loses minor territories to make the Austrian border more defensible.
A couple mountains here and there

Rump Serbia is united with Montenegro under the pro-Austrian Obrenovic's, who were deposed in 1903.
AH doesn't ask for anything, just food from Russia.
From the Ukraine food with her POWs are the war reparations, not border changes

The Bulgarians get to keep its conquests.

Romania gets to keep Bessarbia.

The Ottomans lose everything based on the December 1917 front line with the Brits. They try to take the Caucasus to compensate in 1918.
OK.

There are minor border adjustments on the Franco-German border in Germany's favor. Front slope of the Vosges and Briey-Longwy
In a negotiated peace, outright annexations of the French mainland would be like a big "fuck you" to the Entente. I would think a demilitarised region and a Saar-like solution to Briey-Longwy would be (somewhat) better.

Germany loses her colonies and has some limits to her navy.
In retrospect Germany gets back Togo, Kamerun, and German East Africa, but has to peg her navy to the RN 2:3 with 1:1 in subs. Maybe picks up neighboring territories around Togo and Kamerun?
East Africa is probably lost, since it is essential for the Cape-to-Cairo railway. You could partition it if you could find an agreeable solution for both the Germans and the British.

As for the colonies, you could be able to bring back Togo and Kamerun, and maybe even grab Benin, Neukamerun, Middle Congo and Gabon. Note that these are all French posessions, so you could arrange this as the Germans cashing in on every inch of French mainland they retreat from. Congo proper, being a Belgian colony, is probably out of the picture.

Italy also pays minor reparations for the war.
1/3 of AH's war cost against Italy or some such
It would be interesting to see how the Italians pay this.

In the East the Germans get Poland (still in negotiations with Austria-Hungary over the role each will play in that country)and the Baltic area.
Political influence over the areas, though Germany wants to Germanize and annex the Baltics. AH and Germany as still trying to figure out how to handle Poland, as AH wants to turn it into a third crown (Kaiser Karl does at any rate, there are problems with that), but Falkenhayn doesn't allow the Kingdom of Poland to be created ITTL, so that issue isn't on the table.
So how far into Russia do these states go? Similarly to OTL?
 
I know, but I don't think the Germans can trust the Luxembourgers to govern themselves, seeing as they are a conquered territory that did not want to be part of Germany. At least that is my impression, so if anyone has any other information about German plans for Luxembourg, please correct me.

I think that German being a language already spoken in the country, and the strong commercial links render such concerns regarding loyalty there unreasonable. In face, I could well see the existing Reichsland bein reorganized in some capacity way from what it was.
 
This could actually result in a more stable 20th century...

Ya the Brits are likely to complain about Lux going away...

A couple of mountains? The problem I see with that is that Tyrol extends deep into Italy, that can only be fixed with the loss of Venetia. Which would be neigh impossible. Though I can see parts of Venetia being traded away for no reparations....

What about SW Africa? (Everyone forgets SW Africa...) Though I can see Germany getting most of French Equatorial Africa in exchange for leaving France. They COULD get the Congo in exchange for no pieces of Belgium (including no economic union or whatever to make the Brits happy) and giving the British East Africa. AND maybe paying Belgium for damages for invading them in the war. The Pacific territories might be lost.

The Eastern front is still a big unknown for the shape of the post-war lines to be drawn there or even in the Mid East. (Why in gods name would the brits want Iraq is unknown, France wouldn't get Syria, No League so no mandates for that region.) plus aren't the Ottomans in the 'winning' side? (even though they got their butts handed to them on a very dusty patter.)
 
Though I can see parts of Venetia being traded away for no reparations...

No way. The Italians wouldnt give up parts of their homeland for less reparations. Not in this era anyway.

What about SW Africa? (Everyone forgets SW Africa...)
We didnt forget about it. It was mentioned earlier in the thread that South Africa would probably say no to any return of SW Afrika to the Germans.

Though I can see Germany getting most of French Equatorial Africa in exchange for leaving France. They COULD get the Congo in exchange for no pieces of Belgium (including no economic union or whatever to make the Brits happy) and giving the British East Africa. AND maybe paying Belgium for damages for invading them in the war. The Pacific territories might be lost.
The Pacific territories are definately gone, but I cant really see Congo proper going to the Germans. The territories taken from Belgium in Europe would probably only consist of a token city or two, and the rest of the demands arent that unreasonable. If the Germans actually do end up with Congo, I suspect some kind of partition would happen as well.
 
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Guys

Most of the conditions being mentioned here are for a considerable German victory which isn't really on the cards. The allies are short of funds without America but can make use of internal funding like Germany did. They can also rely on access to world markets for selling goods so even if somewhat restricted they could continue on with the war. This I can see while Germany is insistent on such large gains.

More likely possibly is that the east is conceded as lost but Germany in turn gives up it's annexations in the west, accepts the loss of it's colonies and almost certainly it required to make some naval commitment to reduce tension with Britain. [This is probably fairly likely as RN production during the war and German debts and probably war weariness makes it likely that the German navy will decline as a threat. Although it's unlikely that this would be an agreement between the two navies which restricts the RN as the US and Japanese 1916 programmes are probably still occurring].

At least one poster has suggested that Germany would get it's extra-European colonies back in return for withdrawing from most/all France and Belgium. No, it's withdrawing from those territories to get peace.

In one way such a world might be more stable than OTL. With the vast majority of allied debts being to Britain, which will probably maintain free trade, there will be more chance of international trade not being derailed as severely as OTL. A lot will depend on what happens with Russia and also whether Germany feels sapped by the war and more diplomatic or feels it has won and tries throwing it's weight around too much.

Steve
 
More likely possibly is that the east is conceded as lost but Germany in turn gives up it's annexations in the west, accepts the loss of it's colonies and almost certainly it required to make some naval commitment to reduce tension with Britain.

While I do agree about giving up the colonies, the naval agreement and not annexing French lands, is Luxemburg really that important to the Entente that they would continue the war over it? I can understand the fuss they would make over Belgium remaining whole, but why Luxemburg?
 

yourworstnightmare

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While I do agree about giving up the colonies, the naval agreement and not annexing French lands, is Luxemburg really that important to the Entente that they would continue the war over it? I can understand the fuss they would make over Belgium remaining whole, but why Luxemburg?
Hmm, I could see Germany getting Luxemburg, but nothing else. France want to make it look they "kind of still won", so no French and Belgian territory for Germany. And since Germany lost the Colonial war they can say bye bye to their colonies (Hindeburg and Ludendorf would not agree to these terms, so I hope they're gone). The real price for Germany would be in the east, and them getting a free hand to shape Eastern Europe.
 
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