Deleted member 1487
Based on this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=177937
I wanted to have a discussion about what would happen after the war if the following peace, a peace of exhaustion, was signed.
POD: Romania doesn't enter the war in 1916, which means General Falkenhayn keeps his position as head of the German army. This is crucial, as he was not in favor of unrestricted submarine warfare, a military dictatorship and the economic plan of Hindenburg (which destroyed the German economy through mismanagement), and wanted peace in 1917 by negotiation.
Because he opposes unrestricted submarine warfare, he is able to find support from the German Kaiser and Chancellor, both of whom were strong-armed into agreement by Ludendorff OTL. Consequently the Zimmermann note is never sent and the US does not enter the war. Loans are cut off to the Entente as per OTL, but no liberty loans are raised to replace them. Britain maintains a slightly muted war effort, but her allies Russia, France, and Italy are dependent on British loans for their war efforts, which have dried up entirely. Without collateral and their bonds being rated as junk, there is little money coming in except through direct taxation, which can only be raised slightly without causing revolution.
After April 1917 the French war effort has wound down, both because of the mutinies, which here are much harder to placate without the Americans and morale boost them brought, as well as an inability to purchase food from the US and finance minor attacks to wear down the Germans (OTL after the Nivelle offensive the French attacked around Verdun very successfully, which boosted morale and hurt the Germans'. Also the successful Petain version of the Chemin des Dames cannot occur due to lack of funds and willingness of the French soldier to fight).
The Russian provisional government bows out of the war early, after the October Revolution, because of no Americans or loans, which causes Romania to occupy and annex Bessarbia. The Ottomans still make later efforts to occupy the Caucasus region as Russia falls into civil war.
Italy is attack at Caporetto as per OTL, though slightly earlier, which devastates them. However, with Russia knocked out of the war early, no Americans, and no loans, the Italian socialists and anti-war protestors revolt, causing the government to ask for a cease fire. This topples the French government, which reforms under Joseph Caillaux, who starts negotiations with the Germans. The British join in, as do the Italians.
The negotiations conclude under the threat of German offensive.
In the West the Germans avoid reparations for France and Britain, but have to pay Belgium. They also annex Luxembourg and get trade concessions with Belgium. There are minor border adjustments on the Franco-German border in Germany's favor. Germany loses her colonies and has some limits to her navy. Italy loses minor territories to make the Austrian border more defensible. Italy also pays minor reparations for the war. Rump Serbia is united with Montenegro under the pro-Austrian Obrenovic's, who were deposed in 1903. In the East the Germans get Poland (still in negotiations with Austria-Hungary over the role each will play in that country)and the Baltic area. AH doesn't ask for anything, just food from Russia. The Bulgarians get to keep their conquests. Romania gets to keep Bessarbia. The Ottomans lose everything base on the December 1917 front line with the Brits. They try to take the Caucasus to compensate in 1918.
Important notes: there is no Brest-Litovsk, though the Russian Provisional government is fighting the Bolsheviks. There is no Bread Peace with the Ukrainians, which means the AHs are more stable in Galicia, having avoiding pissing off the Poles. AH is more stable than 1918 OTL, but the Hungarians and Austrians have the Ausgleich negotiations coming up and the Hungarians have large demands, including a separate army, which Kaiser Karl will not agree to. There are large numbers of returning to AH that have been exposed to Communism and are angry. Here they will not be asked to fight again, which pushed them over the edge, but in Hungary they have demands of nobility and are plotting assassinations of important figures like Tisza.
There is major inflation in Germany and AH, though not nearly as bad as the 1920's OTL version. A global depression has occurred as a result of the break down in trade and the consumer economy being turned into war economies in Europe. Germany has large gold reserves and is owed money by her allies, but they can't really pay and Germany owes the Netherlands for loans and trade. The nation never goes through the dictatorship of Hindenburg and Ludendorff, both of whom are lionized and claim they could have won total victory. Political violence does occur, but it is limited. A broad section of society wants the Kaiser replaced with the Crown Prince. Many want a constitution with limited authority for the monarch.
France is completely broke and owes major money to the US. This is backed by collateral, but with a devastated country, no reparations, and no ability to raise further loans France is economically crippled. Taxation can only provide so much money, which further exacerbates tensions in the country. Large scale death and what all view as a loss causes political violence verging on civil war. Caillaux is assassinated in 1918.
Italy is also smashed, having gained nothing but civil unrest, which tumbles into civil war, as angry soldiers and civilians take out their rage on their leaders.
AH is devastated with communists planning violence, inflation and debt sap the economy, various national groups have demands for the peace, and all sides have weapons and trained soldiers to fight for them. The Czechs are in a bad place due to the behavior of their soldiers during the war and the Czech legion, meaning many of their potential soldiers/leaders are exiled.
Russia is in civil war, but the Germans are not involved yet, just providing captured Russian weapons and munitions to the Whites. Britain is aiding them too. Fighting in the Baltics is starting, as returning Baltic soldiers, who were fighting for Russia, try to return home. Finland has also revolted and is now independent, but is fighting a civil war aided by the Germans. The Ottomans invade the Caucasus in May with the army of Islam.
Britain is also massively in debt, mainly to the US, as she took out loans for her allies to get them a lower borrowing rate, but they are unable to pay these loans back. Angry soldiers are returning and violence in India and Ireland are picking up.
With this scenario how will the peace play out???
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=177937
I wanted to have a discussion about what would happen after the war if the following peace, a peace of exhaustion, was signed.
POD: Romania doesn't enter the war in 1916, which means General Falkenhayn keeps his position as head of the German army. This is crucial, as he was not in favor of unrestricted submarine warfare, a military dictatorship and the economic plan of Hindenburg (which destroyed the German economy through mismanagement), and wanted peace in 1917 by negotiation.
Because he opposes unrestricted submarine warfare, he is able to find support from the German Kaiser and Chancellor, both of whom were strong-armed into agreement by Ludendorff OTL. Consequently the Zimmermann note is never sent and the US does not enter the war. Loans are cut off to the Entente as per OTL, but no liberty loans are raised to replace them. Britain maintains a slightly muted war effort, but her allies Russia, France, and Italy are dependent on British loans for their war efforts, which have dried up entirely. Without collateral and their bonds being rated as junk, there is little money coming in except through direct taxation, which can only be raised slightly without causing revolution.
After April 1917 the French war effort has wound down, both because of the mutinies, which here are much harder to placate without the Americans and morale boost them brought, as well as an inability to purchase food from the US and finance minor attacks to wear down the Germans (OTL after the Nivelle offensive the French attacked around Verdun very successfully, which boosted morale and hurt the Germans'. Also the successful Petain version of the Chemin des Dames cannot occur due to lack of funds and willingness of the French soldier to fight).
The Russian provisional government bows out of the war early, after the October Revolution, because of no Americans or loans, which causes Romania to occupy and annex Bessarbia. The Ottomans still make later efforts to occupy the Caucasus region as Russia falls into civil war.
Italy is attack at Caporetto as per OTL, though slightly earlier, which devastates them. However, with Russia knocked out of the war early, no Americans, and no loans, the Italian socialists and anti-war protestors revolt, causing the government to ask for a cease fire. This topples the French government, which reforms under Joseph Caillaux, who starts negotiations with the Germans. The British join in, as do the Italians.
The negotiations conclude under the threat of German offensive.
In the West the Germans avoid reparations for France and Britain, but have to pay Belgium. They also annex Luxembourg and get trade concessions with Belgium. There are minor border adjustments on the Franco-German border in Germany's favor. Germany loses her colonies and has some limits to her navy. Italy loses minor territories to make the Austrian border more defensible. Italy also pays minor reparations for the war. Rump Serbia is united with Montenegro under the pro-Austrian Obrenovic's, who were deposed in 1903. In the East the Germans get Poland (still in negotiations with Austria-Hungary over the role each will play in that country)and the Baltic area. AH doesn't ask for anything, just food from Russia. The Bulgarians get to keep their conquests. Romania gets to keep Bessarbia. The Ottomans lose everything base on the December 1917 front line with the Brits. They try to take the Caucasus to compensate in 1918.
Important notes: there is no Brest-Litovsk, though the Russian Provisional government is fighting the Bolsheviks. There is no Bread Peace with the Ukrainians, which means the AHs are more stable in Galicia, having avoiding pissing off the Poles. AH is more stable than 1918 OTL, but the Hungarians and Austrians have the Ausgleich negotiations coming up and the Hungarians have large demands, including a separate army, which Kaiser Karl will not agree to. There are large numbers of returning to AH that have been exposed to Communism and are angry. Here they will not be asked to fight again, which pushed them over the edge, but in Hungary they have demands of nobility and are plotting assassinations of important figures like Tisza.
There is major inflation in Germany and AH, though not nearly as bad as the 1920's OTL version. A global depression has occurred as a result of the break down in trade and the consumer economy being turned into war economies in Europe. Germany has large gold reserves and is owed money by her allies, but they can't really pay and Germany owes the Netherlands for loans and trade. The nation never goes through the dictatorship of Hindenburg and Ludendorff, both of whom are lionized and claim they could have won total victory. Political violence does occur, but it is limited. A broad section of society wants the Kaiser replaced with the Crown Prince. Many want a constitution with limited authority for the monarch.
France is completely broke and owes major money to the US. This is backed by collateral, but with a devastated country, no reparations, and no ability to raise further loans France is economically crippled. Taxation can only provide so much money, which further exacerbates tensions in the country. Large scale death and what all view as a loss causes political violence verging on civil war. Caillaux is assassinated in 1918.
Italy is also smashed, having gained nothing but civil unrest, which tumbles into civil war, as angry soldiers and civilians take out their rage on their leaders.
AH is devastated with communists planning violence, inflation and debt sap the economy, various national groups have demands for the peace, and all sides have weapons and trained soldiers to fight for them. The Czechs are in a bad place due to the behavior of their soldiers during the war and the Czech legion, meaning many of their potential soldiers/leaders are exiled.
Russia is in civil war, but the Germans are not involved yet, just providing captured Russian weapons and munitions to the Whites. Britain is aiding them too. Fighting in the Baltics is starting, as returning Baltic soldiers, who were fighting for Russia, try to return home. Finland has also revolted and is now independent, but is fighting a civil war aided by the Germans. The Ottomans invade the Caucasus in May with the army of Islam.
Britain is also massively in debt, mainly to the US, as she took out loans for her allies to get them a lower borrowing rate, but they are unable to pay these loans back. Angry soldiers are returning and violence in India and Ireland are picking up.
With this scenario how will the peace play out???