Need some help with a plausible Franco-Portuguese Union...

...somewhere between the 1520s-1620s or 30s.

But the earlier the better.

I'm trying to find a slight change of events to allow for the possibility of a Franco-Portuguese Union as opposed to the Iberian Union that occurred OTL.

If you can help me in one of two ways I'd appreciate it.

1. I had considered marrying Catherine of Braganza to a longer lived Francis II of France, and having them conceive issue, (Mary of Scots married a male Elizabeth in ttl) but there are a couple of problems I need help with. Firstly, Catherine's claim to Portugal in the succession crisis of the late 16th century was bolstered strongly by her husband's place in the succession as well as his standing in Portuguese noble society. Eliminating this only makes the claims of the other claimants stronger. However with French support and if at least a plurality of the Portuguese people and nobility can be swayed to their side Catherine, Queen Consort of France could win out and become Queen of Portugal, leaving her hypothetical son with Francis II as King of France, Portugal, and the Algarves.

2. Any other possibility than the one above. Is there one easier or more likely than this one I might have missed?

And, if you don't mind a little extra discussion:

While initially the colonies of Portugal and France (as well as the kingdoms themselves) would be administered separately in theory and in practice, this longterm personal union should ideally become political - it benefits everyone but Spain for this to occur.

Once the governments and colonies are effectively merged (I'll give it sixty years or so) what effect can we see in the administration of the colonies?

Certainly a Franco-Portugal can be a competitive force with England, The Netherlands, and Spain, but how do the colonies look?

India can be had as they both had semi-successful and secure colonies there. Playing the locals off one another like the British did later would be pretty easy given where their colonies were. Southeast Asia, Austrolasia, etc. as well.

Would we see Portuguese settlers become a sizable minority in New France and French fur trappers establishing a lasting cohabitation with and assimilation into Brazilian settlers?

Anyway, I couldn't find any mention of this before on here (and there may be a reason) and really could use some help on the hows, whys, whos, whens, ifs, and what nexts...

Thanks, folks.

Edit: Also, I know there will be quite the succession war that might unite other claimants under Francis or Phillip and therefore we'll have an epic war between France/Portugal and Spain/Portugal, but it's one I could see the former winning at great cost.
 
Just in dynastic terms, there are two main alternatives to the Braganca marriage. Either of those sisters and their husbands/sons are essentially doomed: Philip of Spain is simply too strong, too close, and too sheltered-behind-the-Pyrenees for France to have a chance in 1580, IMO. So:

1) Joanna, Princess of Portugal (1454 - 1490) marries (this would be uncharacteristic) Charles, Comte d'Angouleme and has a son. This son would fill the 'Francois 1er' role in France, becoming king in 1515 and the 'Manoel I' role in Portugal, inheriting the throne in 1495. All butterflies excluded for the moment, of course.

2)Maria Manuela, Princess of Portugal (1527 - 1545) marries Antoine de Bourbon, Duc de Vendome (OTL King of Navarre) and has male issue. She may need to survive a little longer. This son becomes King of Portugal in 1578/1580 (depending on how the law is interpreted) and France in 1589. The downside here is that Philip of Spain might not even care if an unquestionably senior heir emerges, and even so, the French might judge him too distant and choose Cardinal de Bourbon instead.

That's as much as I can think of ATM
 
Just in dynastic terms, there are two main alternatives to the Braganca marriage. Either of those sisters and their husbands/sons are essentially doomed: Philip of Spain is simply too strong, too close, and too sheltered-behind-the-Pyrenees for France to have a chance in 1580, IMO. So:

1) Joanna, Princess of Portugal (1454 - 1490) marries (this would be uncharacteristic) Charles, Comte d'Angouleme and has a son. This son would fill the 'Francois 1er' role in France, becoming king in 1515 and the 'Manoel I' role in Portugal, inheriting the throne in 1495. All butterflies excluded for the moment, of course.

2)Maria Manuela, Princess of Portugal (1527 - 1545) marries Antoine de Bourbon, Duc de Vendome (OTL King of Navarre) and has male issue. She may need to survive a little longer. This son becomes King of Portugal in 1578/1580 (depending on how the law is interpreted) and France in 1589. The downside here is that Philip of Spain might not even care if an unquestionably senior heir emerges, and even so, the French might judge him too distant and choose Cardinal de Bourbon instead.

That's as much as I can think of ATM

Wow, I never thought of creating a Portuguese Bourbon. Thanks for the help.

Going with number two, is there any chance that the combined forces of France and loyal Portugal can suppress Philip's campaign either militarily or spiritually (I.e rallying the people AND the nobility against Spain)?

Might there be interest from the English and/or the Ottomans and/or the rebellious Netherlands to assist in taking Spain down a peg and helping to establish a moderate great power out of Franco-Portugal to keep her in check?

Also, does anyone have any idea how the colonies might look, be administered, and what effects would arise once they stop being administered separately by France and Portugal?

Specifically any thoughts on India, Brazil, New France, Southeast Asia, or later on Australia would be helpful.

Thanks a lot!
 
Admiral, let me tell you one thing that gave me pause--has anyone ever heard of a personal union of two countries that are not contiguous with each other, and where one is not a colony of the other, which have remained standing and led to permanent union?

I can think of lots of personal unions which have led to a fused larger nation right off the top of my head, even unions where the two parent nations were very ethnically and culturally distinct--Poland and Lithuania for instance. If you go back far enough probably half the distinct nation-states of the Westphalian Era originated as several smaller kingdoms united dynastically over the centuries--Spain for instance; the United Kingdom (and before that, England itself fused together out of the Heptarchy).

But can anyone name one that formed from two regions separated by other lands that never joined the union? Or even if they eventually do (quite naturally, one track my mind was going down in your proposed POD is that Spain eventually gets swallowed up, making a contiguous Atlantic-Coast Latin nation from the Rhine to Gibraltar) can anyone show that they start as a leapfrog/sandwiching alliance to beleaguer a third power that threatens both from two sides?

That sort of thing happens all the time in alliances, but I can't think of a case where the alliance leads to a long-term political union and eventual fusion, with or without managing to take over the middle territory in the meantime. It just doesn't seem to work that way.

So--how can you envision a Franco-Portuguese union being stable enough to be a significant factor historically?

Another thing--adding Portugal to France does not do much for France demographically; as far as benefits go, it is the Portuguese who gain a strong ally at Spain's back in Europe and deeper pockets and more boots on the ground for their overseas colonies--but this at the cost of course of the Portuguese identity of those colonies being perhaps drowned by heavier French demographics. What does France gain? Aside from more provocation of more war with Spain?

Well, an instant colonial empire, if they can keep it. Portugal alone was able to hang on to her string of trading posts OTL but part of that was probably due to the mother country largely keeping her head down. Alliance with France would draw the little empire into coalition wars that might shatter it unless the French showed up with heavy reinforcements.

Meanwhile the Portuguese don't open up many doors for the French in terms of colonial opportunities, and don't provide any more people to step through the doors. I'd think Canada, if it happens at all, would remain a purely French enterprise, whereas perhaps Brazil and Angola might get a major French presence--but from what demographic source? Either a greater proportion of French emigration takes place, or the limited stream available for New France OTL gets diverted southward.

One advantage Portugal did enjoy OTL, for what it was worth, was the Papal ruling of the Treaty of Tordesillas, granting the Spanish the franchise to colonize the Western Hemisphere and Portugal, the Eastern. OTL, defiant northern Protestant nations left out of consideration made the treaty a dead letter, but between Spain and Portugal it was effective.

France here is presumably claiming to inherit and share Portugal's rights, and if they want to assert Portugal's monopoly as well they would have to kowtow far more to Papal rulings, and to the other European continental Catholic powers that backed the Papacy, than France was known for OTL. The infamous French defiance of Papal authority, tendency to form "Unholy Alliances" with Muslim powers and all that would have to be sacrificed if the French valued having their Tordesillas claims acknowledged. Or of course Spain, and allied major Catholic powers, could simply cry foul and that Tordesillas was violated and thus null and void, making the Eastern trade routes a free-for-all.

If the Franco-Portuguese power wanted to make claims based on Tordesillas, doubtless someone would point out that Canada and the Mississippi Valley would therefore be off limits to them, being in Spain's designated hemisphere.

Another batch of considerations, circling back to my empirical challenge early on--just how does the relationship between France and Portugal work out, politically and socially? It seems evident to me that France will tend to suck all the oxygen, with Paris becoming the main capital of importance and French becoming the dominant language. Portugal of course will hardly meekly switch over to speaking French! the point is the thing seems unstable, unless there is very good statesmanship seeking a satisfactory balance of power between the nations.

How do you foresee that working?
 
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